TUR1 · Süper Lig · Match Analysis

Kasimpaşa vs
Samsunspor

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date18 Oct 2026

Target season2026/27

History window5 seasons

League tierTier 1

Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win

36.95%

Kasimpaşa

Draw

31.38%

Away win

31.66%

Samsunspor

Expected goals 1.19 - 1.08 2.27 total

BTTS 47.41% Both teams to score

Over 1.5 67.68% 2+ total goals

Over 2.5 39.63% 3+ total goals

Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#11:114.70%

#20:011.74%

#31:010.84%

#40:19.74%

#52:17.89%

Additional scorelines

2:07.29%

1:27.19%

0:26.04%

2:24.27%

3:13.13%

Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Kasimpaşa

Elo1508.4

Overall attack1.01

Overall defense1.36

Home attack1.08

Home defense1.11

Form signal-0.515

Last 5 xGF / xGA0.91 / 1.50

Last 10 xGF / xGA0.99 / 1.36

Last 10 xGD-0.37

League statusSTABLE · from TUR1 2025/26

Away

Samsunspor

Elo1509.2

Overall attack1.26

Overall defense1.33

Away attack1.00

Away defense1.42

Form signal-0.427

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.13 / 1.53

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.21 / 1.68

Last 10 xGD-0.47

League statusSTABLE · from TUR1 2025/26

Elo difference

-0.8

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches6Effective: 1.99

Average goals1.79Kasimpaşa 0.70 · Samsunspor 1.09

H2H 3+ goals19.66%Historical context

H2H BTTS19.66%Model BTTS: 47.41%

H2H 2+ goals36.73%

H2H 3+ goals19.66%

H2H 4+ goals19.66%

H2H BTTS19.66%

Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

011.74%

120.58%

228.04%

320.15%

411.44%

55.20%

61.97%

7+0.88%

0-1 goals32.32%Low total

2+ goals67.68%Over 1.5

3+ goals39.63%Over 2.5

4+ goals19.49%Over 3.5

Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup

LeagueTUR1

Loaded teams30

Loaded historical matches1433

Target season2026/27

Previous seasons in history4

Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27

League tierTier 1

Historical league matches1433

xG matches710 / 1433

Effective xG matches476.47

Observed home xG1.57

Observed away xG1.21

Model home xG baseline1.53

Model away xG baseline1.24

Total league xG baseline2.78

Home-advantage weight0.806

Model configdata/models/TUR1.json

Team attack half-life90.0 days

Team defense half-life240.0 days

Attack strength weight0.806

Defense strength weight1.081

Venue prior matches4.94

DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles

Dixon-Coles rho-0.108 (effective -0.108)

Dixon-Coles decay0.016

Goal overdispersion0.000

Implied goal variance H / A1.19 / 1.08

Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Kasimpaşa

Home attack strength0.867

Home defense weakness0.953

Base lambda home1.28

Attack form xGF level0.941

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.456

Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.395

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.008

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal-0.447

Model defense signal-0.068

Opponent blend0.022

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD0.91 / 1.50 / -0.59

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD0.99 / 1.36 / -0.37

Samsunspor

Away attack strength0.936

Away defense weakness0.943

Base lambda away1.12

Attack form xGF level1.157

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.584

Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.263

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.232

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal-0.231

Model defense signal-0.196

Opponent blend0.022

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.13 / 1.53 / -0.40

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.21 / 1.68 / -0.47

Historical data coverage

Kasimpaşa

Total matches151

Home / away matches75 / 76

xG matches77 / 151

xG home / away coverage38 / 75 · 39 / 76

Effective total9.92

Effective attack / defense9.92 / 27.09

Effective home matches4.59

Effective home attack / defense4.59 / 13.16

Samsunspor

Total matches115

Home / away matches58 / 57

xG matches77 / 115

xG home / away coverage39 / 58 · 38 / 57

Effective total9.97

Effective attack / defense9.97 / 27.13

Effective away matches4.60

Effective away attack / defense4.60 / 13.17

Historical data coverage

32.97%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1413 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.69%

1X2 log-loss vs baseline+6.65%

BTTS Brier vs baseline-0.19%

Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+1.62%

Full backtest metrics

Model

MAE total goals1.3470

Exact score log-loss3.0002

Total goals Brier0.8314

Total goals log-loss1.9173

1X2 Brier0.5985

1X2 log-loss1.0021

BTTS Brier0.2491

Over 1.5 Brier0.1698

Over 2.5 Brier0.2467

Over 3.5 Brier0.2132

League baseline

MAE total goals1.3665

Exact score log-loss3.0942

Total goals Brier0.8341

Total goals log-loss1.9306

1X2 Brier0.6486

1X2 log-loss1.0735

BTTS Brier0.2486

Over 1.5 Brier0.1715

Over 2.5 Brier0.2507

Over 3.5 Brier0.2177

Calibration diagnostics

Home win · ECE 5.66%

 0- 10%  n=8    avg=  7.9% actual= 25.0%
10- 20%  n=48   avg= 14.6% actual= 12.5%
20- 30%  n=133  avg= 25.6% actual= 18.0%
30- 40%  n=454  avg= 36.4% actual= 36.8%
40- 50%  n=506  avg= 44.0% actual= 51.6%
50- 60%  n=148  avg= 54.3% actual= 64.9%
60- 70%  n=59   avg= 63.9% actual= 72.9%
70- 80%  n=40   avg= 74.9% actual= 82.5%
80- 90%  n=16   avg= 83.7% actual= 62.5%
90-100%  n=1    avg= 92.6% actual=100.0%

Draw · ECE 2.66%

 0- 10%  n=5    avg=  8.0% actual=  0.0%
10- 20%  n=80   avg= 16.4% actual= 21.2%
20- 30%  n=1268 avg= 27.5% actual= 25.1%
30- 40%  n=60   avg= 31.0% actual= 26.7%

Away win · ECE 4.06%

 0- 10%  n=52   avg=  6.9% actual=  3.8%
10- 20%  n=141  avg= 16.0% actual= 12.8%
20- 30%  n=455  avg= 26.1% actual= 20.4%
30- 40%  n=548  avg= 33.6% actual= 32.5%
40- 50%  n=127  avg= 44.3% actual= 52.8%
50- 60%  n=51   avg= 54.2% actual= 64.7%
60- 70%  n=21   avg= 64.7% actual= 71.4%
70- 80%  n=17   avg= 72.7% actual= 76.5%
80- 90%  n=1    avg= 89.6% actual=  0.0%

BTTS · ECE 1.43%

30- 40%  n=9    avg= 38.7% actual= 77.8%
40- 50%  n=150  avg= 47.3% actual= 54.0%
50- 60%  n=1197 avg= 54.8% actual= 54.8%
60- 70%  n=57   avg= 61.7% actual= 50.9%

Over 2.5 · ECE 4.62%

20- 30%  n=1    avg= 29.7% actual=100.0%
30- 40%  n=29   avg= 36.8% actual= 41.4%
40- 50%  n=772  avg= 48.4% actual= 52.8%
50- 60%  n=501  avg= 53.3% actual= 58.3%
60- 70%  n=88   avg= 63.6% actual= 67.0%
70- 80%  n=20   avg= 73.6% actual= 75.0%
80- 90%  n=2    avg= 83.8% actual= 50.0%

Walk-forward - latest periods

Period	N	Model 1X2 LL	Baseline 1X2 LL	Improvement
2025-09	31	0.9927	1.1163	+11.08%
2025-10	30	0.9993	1.1113	+10.08%
2025-11	33	1.0018	1.1243	+10.90%
2025-12	29	0.9805	1.1075	+11.47%
2026-01	24	1.0013	1.1478	+12.76%
2026-02	36	0.9076	1.0454	+13.17%
2026-03	28	0.9634	1.0645	+9.49%
2026-04	38	0.9983	1.0348	+3.53%
2026-05	27	1.1044	1.0203	-8.24%
2026-08	27	1.0459	1.0716	+2.40%
2026-09	27	1.0542	1.0368	-1.68%
2026-10	9	0.8923	1.1785	+24.29%

Football is data.

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Kasimpaşa vsSamsunspor

Match probabilities.

Most likely scorelines.

Strength and recent form.

Kasimpaşa

Samsunspor

Historical matchup context.

Total goals profile.

How the model reached the estimate.

Kasimpaşa

Samsunspor

Kasimpaşa

Samsunspor

Historical model performance.

Home win · ECE 5.66%

Draw · ECE 2.66%

Away win · ECE 4.06%

BTTS · ECE 1.43%

Over 2.5 · ECE 4.62%

Football is data.

Kasimpaşa vs
Samsunspor