Home win
66.15%
Fenerbahçe
TUR1 · Süper Lig · Match Analysis
Fenerbahçe vs
Alanyaspor
Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.
Model output
Match probabilities.
Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.
Draw
21.11%
X
Away win
12.74%
Alanyaspor
Score model
Most likely scorelines.
Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.
Additional scorelines
3:17.03%
0:05.90%
4:04.42%
2:24.19%
1:23.89%
Team context
Strength and recent form.
Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.
Home
Fenerbahçe
Elo1651.3
Overall attack2.05
Overall defense0.99
Home attack2.49
Home defense0.98
Form signal+1.021
Last 5 xGF / xGA2.03 / 1.03
Last 10 xGF / xGA2.15 / 1.09
Last 10 xGD+1.06
League statusSTABLE · from TUR1 2025/26
Away
Alanyaspor
Elo1511.2
Overall attack1.12
Overall defense1.32
Away attack1.10
Away defense1.35
Form signal-0.177
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.30 / 1.48
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.21 / 1.39
Last 10 xGD-0.18
League statusSTABLE · from TUR1 2025/26
Elo difference
+140.1
Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.
Head-to-head
Historical matchup context.
H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.
Goal distribution
Total goals profile.
The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.
05.90%
112.89%
223.29%
322.40%
416.86%
510.15%
65.09%
7+3.40%
Technical detail
How the model reached the estimate.
Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.
League baseline and model setup
LeagueTUR1
Loaded teams30
Loaded historical matches1433
Target season2026/27
Previous seasons in history4
Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27
League tierTier 1
Historical league matches1433
xG matches710 / 1433
Effective xG matches476.93
Observed home xG1.57
Observed away xG1.21
Model home xG baseline1.53
Model away xG baseline1.24
Total league xG baseline2.78
Home-advantage weight0.806
Model configdata/models/TUR1.json
Team attack half-life90.0 days
Team defense half-life240.0 days
Attack strength weight0.806
Defense strength weight1.081
Venue prior matches4.94
DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles
Dixon-Coles rho-0.108 (effective -0.107)
Dixon-Coles decay0.016
Goal overdispersion0.000
Implied goal variance H / A2.15 / 0.86
Relative strengths and form diagnostics
Fenerbahçe
Home attack strength1.245
Home defense weakness0.855
Base lambda home1.67
Attack form xGF level2.076
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.054
Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.660
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.307
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal+0.688
Model defense signal+0.334
Opponent blend0.022
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD2.03 / 1.03 / +1.00
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD2.15 / 1.09 / +1.06
Alanyaspor
Away attack strength0.940
Away defense weakness0.920
Base lambda away1.00
Attack form xGF level1.273
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.450
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.107
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.054
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal-0.115
Model defense signal-0.062
Opponent blend0.022
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.30 / 1.48 / -0.18
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.21 / 1.39 / -0.18
Historical data coverage
Fenerbahçe
Total matches151
Home / away matches75 / 76
xG matches77 / 151
xG home / away coverage38 / 75 · 39 / 76
Effective total10.02
Effective attack / defense10.02 / 27.24
Effective home matches4.71
Effective home attack / defense4.71 / 13.35
Alanyaspor
Total matches151
Home / away matches75 / 76
xG matches77 / 151
xG home / away coverage38 / 75 · 39 / 76
Effective total10.02
Effective attack / defense10.02 / 27.20
Effective away matches5.23
Effective away attack / defense5.23 / 13.93
Historical data coverage
33.23%
This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.
Validation
Historical model performance.
Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1413 historical matches.
Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.
Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.69%
1X2 log-loss vs baseline+6.65%
BTTS Brier vs baseline-0.19%
Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+1.62%
Full backtest metrics
Model
MAE total goals1.3470
Exact score log-loss3.0002
Total goals Brier0.8314
Total goals log-loss1.9173
1X2 Brier0.5985
1X2 log-loss1.0021
BTTS Brier0.2491
Over 1.5 Brier0.1698
Over 2.5 Brier0.2467
Over 3.5 Brier0.2132
League baseline
MAE total goals1.3665
Exact score log-loss3.0942
Total goals Brier0.8341
Total goals log-loss1.9306
1X2 Brier0.6486
1X2 log-loss1.0735
BTTS Brier0.2486
Over 1.5 Brier0.1715
Over 2.5 Brier0.2507
Over 3.5 Brier0.2177
Calibration diagnostics
Home win · ECE 5.66%
0- 10% n=8 avg= 7.9% actual= 25.0% 10- 20% n=48 avg= 14.6% actual= 12.5% 20- 30% n=133 avg= 25.6% actual= 18.0% 30- 40% n=454 avg= 36.4% actual= 36.8% 40- 50% n=506 avg= 44.0% actual= 51.6% 50- 60% n=148 avg= 54.3% actual= 64.9% 60- 70% n=59 avg= 63.9% actual= 72.9% 70- 80% n=40 avg= 74.9% actual= 82.5% 80- 90% n=16 avg= 83.7% actual= 62.5% 90-100% n=1 avg= 92.6% actual=100.0%
Draw · ECE 2.66%
0- 10% n=5 avg= 8.0% actual= 0.0% 10- 20% n=80 avg= 16.4% actual= 21.2% 20- 30% n=1268 avg= 27.5% actual= 25.1% 30- 40% n=60 avg= 31.0% actual= 26.7%
Away win · ECE 4.06%
0- 10% n=52 avg= 6.9% actual= 3.8% 10- 20% n=141 avg= 16.0% actual= 12.8% 20- 30% n=455 avg= 26.1% actual= 20.4% 30- 40% n=548 avg= 33.6% actual= 32.5% 40- 50% n=127 avg= 44.3% actual= 52.8% 50- 60% n=51 avg= 54.2% actual= 64.7% 60- 70% n=21 avg= 64.7% actual= 71.4% 70- 80% n=17 avg= 72.7% actual= 76.5% 80- 90% n=1 avg= 89.6% actual= 0.0%
BTTS · ECE 1.43%
30- 40% n=9 avg= 38.7% actual= 77.8% 40- 50% n=150 avg= 47.3% actual= 54.0% 50- 60% n=1197 avg= 54.8% actual= 54.8% 60- 70% n=57 avg= 61.7% actual= 50.9%
Over 2.5 · ECE 4.62%
20- 30% n=1 avg= 29.7% actual=100.0% 30- 40% n=29 avg= 36.8% actual= 41.4% 40- 50% n=772 avg= 48.4% actual= 52.8% 50- 60% n=501 avg= 53.3% actual= 58.3% 60- 70% n=88 avg= 63.6% actual= 67.0% 70- 80% n=20 avg= 73.6% actual= 75.0% 80- 90% n=2 avg= 83.8% actual= 50.0%
Walk-forward - latest periods
| Period | N | Model 1X2 LL | Baseline 1X2 LL | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09 | 31 | 0.9927 | 1.1163 | +11.08% |
| 2025-10 | 30 | 0.9993 | 1.1113 | +10.08% |
| 2025-11 | 33 | 1.0018 | 1.1243 | +10.90% |
| 2025-12 | 29 | 0.9805 | 1.1075 | +11.47% |
| 2026-01 | 24 | 1.0013 | 1.1478 | +12.76% |
| 2026-02 | 36 | 0.9076 | 1.0454 | +13.17% |
| 2026-03 | 28 | 0.9634 | 1.0645 | +9.49% |
| 2026-04 | 38 | 0.9983 | 1.0348 | +3.53% |
| 2026-05 | 27 | 1.1044 | 1.0203 | -8.24% |
| 2026-08 | 27 | 1.0459 | 1.0716 | +2.40% |
| 2026-09 | 27 | 1.0542 | 1.0368 | -1.68% |
| 2026-10 | 9 | 0.8923 | 1.1785 | +24.29% |
Football is data.
NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.