Home win
34.02%
Samsunspor
TUR1 · Süper Lig · Match Analysis
Samsunspor vs
Trabzonspor
Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.
Model output
Match probabilities.
Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.
Draw
28.34%
X
Away win
37.64%
Trabzonspor
Score model
Most likely scorelines.
Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.
Additional scorelines
1:06.71%
0:26.30%
2:25.83%
2:05.62%
1:34.12%
Team context
Strength and recent form.
Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.
Home
Samsunspor
Elo1518.8
Overall attack1.29
Overall defense1.30
Home attack1.44
Home defense1.19
Form signal-0.529
Last 5 xGF / xGA0.84 / 1.40
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.10 / 1.57
Last 10 xGD-0.47
League statusSTABLE · from TUR1 2025/26
Away
Trabzonspor
Elo1596.8
Overall attack1.56
Overall defense1.37
Away attack1.40
Away defense1.55
Form signal+0.467
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.95 / 1.33
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.67 / 1.48
Last 10 xGD+0.19
League statusSTABLE · from TUR1 2025/26
Elo difference
-78.0
Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.
Head-to-head
Historical matchup context.
H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.
Goal distribution
Total goals profile.
The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.
07.62%
113.91%
225.37%
322.25%
415.58%
58.73%
64.08%
7+2.45%
Technical detail
How the model reached the estimate.
Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.
League baseline and model setup
LeagueTUR1
Loaded teams30
Loaded historical matches1424
Target season2026/27
Previous seasons in history4
Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27
League tierTier 1
Historical league matches1424
xG matches701 / 1424
Effective xG matches471.15
Observed home xG1.57
Observed away xG1.20
Model home xG baseline1.57
Model away xG baseline1.20
Total league xG baseline2.77
Home-advantage weight1.000
Model configdata/models/TUR1.json
Team attack half-life240.0 days
Team defense half-life240.0 days
Attack strength weight1.000
Defense strength weight1.000
Venue prior matches0.00
DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles
Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)
Dixon-Coles decay0.000
Goal overdispersion0.000
Implied goal variance H / A1.36 / 1.44
Relative strengths and form diagnostics
Samsunspor
Home attack strength0.941
Home defense weakness0.994
Base lambda home1.46
Attack form xGF level0.933
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.462
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.428
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.056
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal-0.452
Model defense signal-0.077
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD0.84 / 1.40 / -0.56
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.10 / 1.57 / -0.47
Trabzonspor
Away attack strength1.122
Away defense weakness0.989
Base lambda away1.34
Attack form xGF level1.852
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.385
Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.419
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.052
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal+0.467
Model defense signal+0.000
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.95 / 1.33 / +0.62
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.67 / 1.48 / +0.19
Historical data coverage
Samsunspor
Total matches114
Home / away matches57 / 57
xG matches76 / 114
xG home / away coverage38 / 57 · 38 / 57
Effective total26.76
Effective attack / defense26.76 / 26.76
Effective home matches13.29
Effective home attack / defense13.29 / 13.29
Trabzonspor
Total matches150
Home / away matches75 / 75
xG matches76 / 150
xG home / away coverage38 / 75 · 38 / 75
Effective total26.80
Effective attack / defense26.80 / 26.80
Effective away matches13.45
Effective away attack / defense13.45 / 13.45
Historical data coverage
81.27%
This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.
Validation
Historical model performance.
Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1404 historical matches.
Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.
Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.40%
1X2 log-loss vs baseline+4.75%
BTTS Brier vs baseline-0.42%
Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+0.85%
Full backtest metrics
Model
MAE total goals1.3571
Exact score log-loss3.0279
Total goals Brier0.8324
Total goals log-loss1.9238
1X2 Brier0.6130
1X2 log-loss1.0228
BTTS Brier0.2495
Over 1.5 Brier0.1702
Over 2.5 Brier0.2487
Over 3.5 Brier0.2141
League baseline
MAE total goals1.3680
Exact score log-loss3.0927
Total goals Brier0.8343
Total goals log-loss1.9316
1X2 Brier0.6487
1X2 log-loss1.0738
BTTS Brier0.2485
Over 1.5 Brier0.1714
Over 2.5 Brier0.2508
Over 3.5 Brier0.2177
Calibration diagnostics
Home win · ECE 6.98%
0- 10% n=2 avg= 6.2% actual= 50.0% 10- 20% n=42 avg= 15.5% actual= 9.5% 20- 30% n=90 avg= 25.9% actual= 22.2% 30- 40% n=281 avg= 37.0% actual= 31.3% 40- 50% n=732 avg= 42.8% actual= 51.2% 50- 60% n=142 avg= 54.5% actual= 50.7% 60- 70% n=66 avg= 64.5% actual= 71.2% 70- 80% n=38 avg= 74.4% actual= 71.1% 80- 90% n=10 avg= 84.2% actual= 60.0% 90-100% n=1 avg= 92.1% actual=100.0%
Draw · ECE 3.51%
0- 10% n=4 avg= 8.1% actual= 25.0% 10- 20% n=57 avg= 16.7% actual= 22.8% 20- 30% n=1216 avg= 27.9% actual= 24.7% 30- 40% n=127 avg= 31.3% actual= 26.8%
Away win · ECE 6.47%
0- 10% n=44 avg= 7.2% actual= 9.1% 10- 20% n=167 avg= 15.8% actual= 15.0% 20- 30% n=625 avg= 27.3% actual= 20.8% 30- 40% n=424 avg= 32.2% actual= 41.3% 40- 50% n=82 avg= 44.4% actual= 46.3% 50- 60% n=34 avg= 55.1% actual= 73.5% 60- 70% n=24 avg= 64.9% actual= 66.7% 70- 80% n=3 avg= 71.6% actual= 66.7% 80- 90% n=1 avg= 86.3% actual= 0.0%
BTTS · ECE 1.50%
30- 40% n=13 avg= 37.5% actual= 61.5% 40- 50% n=178 avg= 46.6% actual= 52.8% 50- 60% n=1120 avg= 55.0% actual= 54.6% 60- 70% n=89 avg= 62.8% actual= 60.7% 70- 80% n=4 avg= 71.3% actual= 75.0%
Over 2.5 · ECE 5.29%
30- 40% n=60 avg= 36.4% actual= 43.3% 40- 50% n=886 avg= 48.4% actual= 55.5% 50- 60% n=316 avg= 53.8% actual= 53.2% 60- 70% n=117 avg= 63.7% actual= 66.7% 70- 80% n=24 avg= 73.4% actual= 70.8% 80- 90% n=1 avg= 80.8% actual= 0.0%
Walk-forward - latest periods
| Period | N | Model 1X2 LL | Baseline 1X2 LL | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08 | 30 | 0.9793 | 1.0943 | +10.51% |
| 2025-09 | 31 | 1.0027 | 1.1143 | +10.02% |
| 2025-10 | 30 | 1.0357 | 1.1118 | +6.84% |
| 2025-11 | 33 | 1.0152 | 1.1256 | +9.82% |
| 2025-12 | 29 | 0.9811 | 1.1027 | +11.03% |
| 2026-01 | 24 | 1.0120 | 1.1431 | +11.47% |
| 2026-02 | 36 | 0.9062 | 1.0476 | +13.49% |
| 2026-03 | 28 | 0.9671 | 1.0642 | +9.13% |
| 2026-04 | 38 | 0.9807 | 1.0350 | +5.24% |
| 2026-05 | 27 | 1.0655 | 1.0215 | -4.30% |
| 2026-08 | 27 | 1.0720 | 1.0733 | +0.12% |
| 2026-09 | 27 | 1.0585 | 1.0392 | -1.85% |
Football is data.
NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.