SCO1 · Scottish Premiership · Match Analysis

Celtic vs
Hearts

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date18 Oct 2026

Target season2026/27

History window5 seasons

League tierTier 1

Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win

63.06%

Celtic

Draw

21.37%

Away win

15.57%

Hearts

Expected goals 2.13 - 0.98 3.11 total

BTTS 55.81% Both teams to score

Over 1.5 82.47% 2+ total goals

Over 2.5 60.18% 3+ total goals

Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#12:010.12%

#21:110.04%

#32:19.91%

#41:08.73%

#53:07.20%

Additional scorelines

3:17.05%

0:05.19%

2:24.86%

1:24.55%

4:03.84%

Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Celtic

Elo1670.9

Overall attack2.30

Overall defense0.99

Home attack2.24

Home defense0.77

Form signal+1.045

Last 5 xGF / xGA2.11 / 1.22

Last 10 xGF / xGA2.43 / 1.10

Last 10 xGD+1.33

League statusSTABLE · from SCO1 2025/26

Away

Hearts

Elo1598.6

Overall attack1.67

Overall defense1.11

Away attack1.49

Away defense1.35

Form signal+1.215

Last 5 xGF / xGA2.33 / 1.01

Last 10 xGF / xGA2.16 / 1.14

Last 10 xGD+1.02

League statusSTABLE · from SCO1 2025/26

Elo difference

+72.3

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches10Effective: 3.73

Average goals3.50Celtic 2.04 · Hearts 1.46

H2H 3+ goals85.64%Historical context

H2H BTTS71.65%Model BTTS: 55.81%

H2H 2+ goals100.00%

H2H 3+ goals85.64%

H2H 4+ goals56.92%

H2H BTTS71.65%

Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

05.19%

112.34%

222.29%

322.36%

417.40%

510.84%

65.63%

7+3.96%

0-1 goals17.53%Low total

2+ goals82.47%Over 1.5

3+ goals60.18%Over 2.5

4+ goals37.83%Over 3.5

Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup

LeagueSCO1

Loaded teams14

Loaded historical matches960

Target season2026/27

Previous seasons in history4

Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27

League tierTier 1

Historical league matches960

xG matches276 / 960

Effective xG matches218.96

Observed home xG1.59

Observed away xG1.29

Model home xG baseline1.61

Model away xG baseline1.27

Total league xG baseline2.88

Home-advantage weight1.125

Model configdata/models/SCO1.json

Team attack half-life240.0 days

Team defense half-life240.0 days

Attack strength weight0.763

Defense strength weight0.969

Venue prior matches2.00

DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles

Dixon-Coles rho-0.081 (effective -0.080)

Dixon-Coles decay0.016

Goal overdispersion0.000

Implied goal variance H / A2.13 / 0.98

Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Celtic

Home attack strength1.282

Home defense weakness0.739

Base lambda home1.75

Attack form xGF level2.221

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.176

Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.747

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.227

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal+0.781

Model defense signal+0.264

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD2.11 / 1.22 / +0.89

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD2.43 / 1.10 / +1.33

Hearts

Away attack strength1.104

Away defense weakness0.894

Base lambda away1.02

Attack form xGF level2.268

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.053

Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.783

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.344

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal+0.828

Model defense signal+0.387

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD2.33 / 1.01 / +1.32

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD2.16 / 1.14 / +1.02

Historical data coverage

Celtic

Total matches160

Home / away matches80 / 80

xG matches46 / 160

xG home / away coverage23 / 80 · 23 / 80

Effective total24.01

Effective attack / defense24.01 / 24.01

Effective home matches11.98

Effective home attack / defense11.98 / 11.98

Hearts

Total matches160

Home / away matches80 / 80

xG matches46 / 160

xG home / away coverage23 / 80 · 23 / 80

Effective total23.90

Effective attack / defense23.90 / 23.90

Effective away matches11.99

Effective away attack / defense11.99 / 11.99

Historical data coverage

72.31%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 940 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.24%

1X2 log-loss vs baseline+6.86%

BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.67%

Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+1.16%

Full backtest metrics

Model

MAE total goals1.2931

Exact score log-loss2.9768

Total goals Brier0.8253

Total goals log-loss1.8746

1X2 Brier0.5894

1X2 log-loss0.9903

BTTS Brier0.2497

Over 1.5 Brier0.1699

Over 2.5 Brier0.2472

Over 3.5 Brier0.2185

League baseline

MAE total goals1.3025

Exact score log-loss3.0841

Total goals Brier0.8267

Total goals log-loss1.8791

1X2 Brier0.6424

1X2 log-loss1.0632

BTTS Brier0.2514

Over 1.5 Brier0.1705

Over 2.5 Brier0.2501

Over 3.5 Brier0.2197

Calibration diagnostics

Home win · ECE 5.29%

 0- 10%  n=4    avg=  8.5% actual= 25.0%
10- 20%  n=31   avg= 15.5% actual= 22.6%
20- 30%  n=103  avg= 24.8% actual= 14.6%
30- 40%  n=201  avg= 36.0% actual= 36.3%
40- 50%  n=369  avg= 44.1% actual= 50.1%
50- 60%  n=111  avg= 54.3% actual= 54.1%
60- 70%  n=84   avg= 64.4% actual= 75.0%
70- 80%  n=24   avg= 74.1% actual= 87.5%
80- 90%  n=11   avg= 85.0% actual= 90.9%
90-100%  n=2    avg= 92.4% actual=100.0%

Draw · ECE 3.10%

 0- 10%  n=8    avg=  8.6% actual= 12.5%
10- 20%  n=48   avg= 17.0% actual=  8.3%
20- 30%  n=880  avg= 26.6% actual= 23.9%
30- 40%  n=4    avg= 30.7% actual= 25.0%

Away win · ECE 3.20%

 0- 10%  n=32   avg=  6.4% actual=  3.1%
10- 20%  n=135  avg= 15.3% actual= 16.3%
20- 30%  n=330  avg= 26.3% actual= 23.3%
30- 40%  n=282  avg= 33.7% actual= 33.0%
40- 50%  n=86   avg= 44.9% actual= 54.7%
50- 60%  n=53   avg= 53.6% actual= 64.2%
60- 70%  n=14   avg= 65.4% actual= 64.3%
70- 80%  n=8    avg= 74.0% actual= 50.0%

BTTS · ECE 2.32%

30- 40%  n=3    avg= 37.8% actual= 33.3%
40- 50%  n=91   avg= 46.9% actual= 44.0%
50- 60%  n=829  avg= 54.1% actual= 52.1%
60- 70%  n=17   avg= 61.6% actual= 47.1%

Over 2.5 · ECE 5.06%

30- 40%  n=6    avg= 38.5% actual= 50.0%
40- 50%  n=481  avg= 48.7% actual= 51.8%
50- 60%  n=401  avg= 53.0% actual= 60.1%
60- 70%  n=40   avg= 63.5% actual= 60.0%
70- 80%  n=11   avg= 73.8% actual= 54.5%
80- 90%  n=1    avg= 82.7% actual=100.0%

Walk-forward - latest periods

Period	N	Model 1X2 LL	Baseline 1X2 LL	Improvement
2025-10	23	1.0089	1.0453	+3.48%
2025-11	22	0.9725	1.1161	+12.87%
2025-12	34	0.9366	1.0299	+9.06%
2026-01	25	0.8051	1.0731	+24.98%
2026-02	29	0.9630	1.0379	+7.22%
2026-03	16	1.1526	1.0513	-9.63%
2026-04	18	0.9239	1.0121	+8.72%
2026-05	24	1.0380	1.0573	+1.82%
2026-07	1	1.6304	1.3147	-24.01%
2026-08	18	0.9214	1.0569	+12.82%
2026-09	23	1.0485	1.1083	+5.40%
2026-10	6	0.8378	1.0221	+18.03%

Football is data.

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Celtic vsHearts

Match probabilities.

Most likely scorelines.

Strength and recent form.

Celtic

Hearts

Historical matchup context.

Total goals profile.

How the model reached the estimate.

Celtic

Hearts

Celtic

Hearts

Historical model performance.

Home win · ECE 5.29%

Draw · ECE 3.10%

Away win · ECE 3.20%

BTTS · ECE 2.32%

Over 2.5 · ECE 5.06%

Football is data.

Celtic vs
Hearts