Home win
25.33%
Kilmarnock
SCO1 · Scottish Premiership · Match Analysis
Kilmarnock vs
Motherwell
Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.
Model output
Match probabilities.
Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.
Draw
23.48%
X
Away win
51.19%
Motherwell
Score model
Most likely scorelines.
Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.
Additional scorelines
2:26.36%
1:36.21%
0:34.64%
0:04.47%
1:04.16%
Team context
Strength and recent form.
Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.
Home
Kilmarnock
Elo1446.3
Overall attack1.25
Overall defense1.90
Home attack1.34
Home defense1.91
Form signal-0.540
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.10 / 1.56
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.24 / 1.93
Last 10 xGD-0.69
League statusSTABLE · from SCO1 2025/26
Away
Motherwell
Elo1510.8
Overall attack1.45
Overall defense1.45
Away attack1.41
Away defense1.92
Form signal-0.803
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.12 / 2.01
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.29 / 1.91
Last 10 xGD-0.62
League statusSTABLE · from SCO1 2025/26
Elo difference
-64.6
Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.
Head-to-head
Historical matchup context.
H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.
Goal distribution
Total goals profile.
The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.
04.47%
110.62%
220.86%
322.09%
418.22%
512.03%
66.61%
7+5.09%
Technical detail
How the model reached the estimate.
Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.
League baseline and model setup
LeagueSCO1
Loaded teams14
Loaded historical matches960
Target season2026/27
Previous seasons in history4
Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27
League tierTier 1
Historical league matches960
xG matches276 / 960
Effective xG matches219.17
Observed home xG1.59
Observed away xG1.29
Model home xG baseline1.61
Model away xG baseline1.27
Total league xG baseline2.88
Home-advantage weight1.125
Model configdata/models/SCO1.json
Team attack half-life240.0 days
Team defense half-life240.0 days
Attack strength weight0.763
Defense strength weight0.969
Venue prior matches2.00
DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles
Dixon-Coles rho-0.081 (effective -0.080)
Dixon-Coles decay0.016
Goal overdispersion0.000
Implied goal variance H / A1.34 / 1.96
Relative strengths and form diagnostics
Kilmarnock
Home attack strength0.896
Home defense weakness1.309
Base lambda home1.66
Attack form xGF level1.150
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.690
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.215
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.170
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal-0.290
Model defense signal-0.250
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.10 / 1.56 / -0.46
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.24 / 1.93 / -0.69
Motherwell
Away attack strength1.059
Away defense weakness1.119
Base lambda away1.72
Attack form xGF level1.176
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.979
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.288
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.564
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal-0.264
Model defense signal-0.539
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.12 / 2.01 / -0.90
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.29 / 1.91 / -0.62
Historical data coverage
Kilmarnock
Total matches160
Home / away matches80 / 80
xG matches46 / 160
xG home / away coverage23 / 80 · 23 / 80
Effective total23.94
Effective attack / defense23.94 / 23.94
Effective home matches11.83
Effective home attack / defense11.83 / 11.83
Motherwell
Total matches160
Home / away matches79 / 81
xG matches46 / 160
xG home / away coverage23 / 79 · 23 / 81
Effective total24.02
Effective attack / defense24.02 / 24.02
Effective away matches11.99
Effective away attack / defense11.99 / 11.99
Historical data coverage
71.29%
This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.
Validation
Historical model performance.
Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 940 historical matches.
Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.
Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.24%
1X2 log-loss vs baseline+6.86%
BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.67%
Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+1.16%
Full backtest metrics
Model
MAE total goals1.2931
Exact score log-loss2.9768
Total goals Brier0.8253
Total goals log-loss1.8746
1X2 Brier0.5894
1X2 log-loss0.9903
BTTS Brier0.2497
Over 1.5 Brier0.1699
Over 2.5 Brier0.2472
Over 3.5 Brier0.2185
League baseline
MAE total goals1.3025
Exact score log-loss3.0841
Total goals Brier0.8267
Total goals log-loss1.8791
1X2 Brier0.6424
1X2 log-loss1.0632
BTTS Brier0.2514
Over 1.5 Brier0.1705
Over 2.5 Brier0.2501
Over 3.5 Brier0.2197
Calibration diagnostics
Home win · ECE 5.29%
0- 10% n=4 avg= 8.5% actual= 25.0% 10- 20% n=31 avg= 15.5% actual= 22.6% 20- 30% n=103 avg= 24.8% actual= 14.6% 30- 40% n=201 avg= 36.0% actual= 36.3% 40- 50% n=369 avg= 44.1% actual= 50.1% 50- 60% n=111 avg= 54.3% actual= 54.1% 60- 70% n=84 avg= 64.4% actual= 75.0% 70- 80% n=24 avg= 74.1% actual= 87.5% 80- 90% n=11 avg= 85.0% actual= 90.9% 90-100% n=2 avg= 92.4% actual=100.0%
Draw · ECE 3.10%
0- 10% n=8 avg= 8.6% actual= 12.5% 10- 20% n=48 avg= 17.0% actual= 8.3% 20- 30% n=880 avg= 26.6% actual= 23.9% 30- 40% n=4 avg= 30.7% actual= 25.0%
Away win · ECE 3.20%
0- 10% n=32 avg= 6.4% actual= 3.1% 10- 20% n=135 avg= 15.3% actual= 16.3% 20- 30% n=330 avg= 26.3% actual= 23.3% 30- 40% n=282 avg= 33.7% actual= 33.0% 40- 50% n=86 avg= 44.9% actual= 54.7% 50- 60% n=53 avg= 53.6% actual= 64.2% 60- 70% n=14 avg= 65.4% actual= 64.3% 70- 80% n=8 avg= 74.0% actual= 50.0%
BTTS · ECE 2.32%
30- 40% n=3 avg= 37.8% actual= 33.3% 40- 50% n=91 avg= 46.9% actual= 44.0% 50- 60% n=829 avg= 54.1% actual= 52.1% 60- 70% n=17 avg= 61.6% actual= 47.1%
Over 2.5 · ECE 5.06%
30- 40% n=6 avg= 38.5% actual= 50.0% 40- 50% n=481 avg= 48.7% actual= 51.8% 50- 60% n=401 avg= 53.0% actual= 60.1% 60- 70% n=40 avg= 63.5% actual= 60.0% 70- 80% n=11 avg= 73.8% actual= 54.5% 80- 90% n=1 avg= 82.7% actual=100.0%
Walk-forward - latest periods
| Period | N | Model 1X2 LL | Baseline 1X2 LL | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10 | 23 | 1.0089 | 1.0453 | +3.48% |
| 2025-11 | 22 | 0.9725 | 1.1161 | +12.87% |
| 2025-12 | 34 | 0.9366 | 1.0299 | +9.06% |
| 2026-01 | 25 | 0.8051 | 1.0731 | +24.98% |
| 2026-02 | 29 | 0.9630 | 1.0379 | +7.22% |
| 2026-03 | 16 | 1.1526 | 1.0513 | -9.63% |
| 2026-04 | 18 | 0.9239 | 1.0121 | +8.72% |
| 2026-05 | 24 | 1.0380 | 1.0573 | +1.82% |
| 2026-07 | 1 | 1.6304 | 1.3147 | -24.01% |
| 2026-08 | 18 | 0.9214 | 1.0569 | +12.82% |
| 2026-09 | 23 | 1.0485 | 1.1083 | +5.40% |
| 2026-10 | 6 | 0.8378 | 1.0221 | +18.03% |
Football is data.
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