SCO1 · Scottish Premiership · Match Analysis

Aberdeen vs
St Mirren

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date17 Oct 2026

Target season2026/27

History window5 seasons

League tierTier 1

Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win

36.96%

Aberdeen

Draw

28.55%

Away win

34.49%

St Mirren

Expected goals 1.32 - 1.26 2.58 total

BTTS 53.51% Both teams to score

Over 1.5 73.88% 2+ total goals

Over 2.5 47.63% 3+ total goals

Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#11:113.63%

#21:08.96%

#30:08.61%

#40:18.56%

#52:18.29%

Additional scorelines

1:27.96%

2:06.57%

0:26.05%

2:25.24%

3:13.64%

Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Aberdeen

Elo1447.6

Overall attack1.13

Overall defense1.56

Home attack1.41

Home defense1.40

Form signal-0.344

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.08 / 1.37

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.06 / 1.51

Last 10 xGD-0.44

League statusSTABLE · from SCO1 2025/26

Away

St Mirren

Elo1444.9

Overall attack1.19

Overall defense1.46

Away attack1.08

Away defense1.57

Form signal-1.184

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.15 / 2.52

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.34 / 2.17

Last 10 xGD-0.83

League statusSTABLE · from SCO1 2025/26

Elo difference

+2.7

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches10Effective: 3.94

Average goals2.67Aberdeen 0.82 · St Mirren 1.85

H2H 3+ goals41.72%Historical context

H2H BTTS30.39%Model BTTS: 53.51%

H2H 2+ goals78.03%

H2H 3+ goals41.72%

H2H 4+ goals19.47%

H2H BTTS30.39%

Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

08.61%

117.52%

226.25%

321.68%

413.98%

57.21%

63.10%

7+1.65%

0-1 goals26.12%Low total

2+ goals73.88%Over 1.5

3+ goals47.63%Over 2.5

4+ goals25.94%Over 3.5

Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup

LeagueSCO1

Loaded teams14

Loaded historical matches960

Target season2026/27

Previous seasons in history4

Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27

League tierTier 1

Historical league matches960

xG matches276 / 960

Effective xG matches219.17

Observed home xG1.59

Observed away xG1.29

Model home xG baseline1.61

Model away xG baseline1.27

Total league xG baseline2.88

Home-advantage weight1.125

Model configdata/models/SCO1.json

Team attack half-life240.0 days

Team defense half-life240.0 days

Attack strength weight0.763

Defense strength weight0.969

Venue prior matches2.00

DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles

Dixon-Coles rho-0.081 (effective -0.081)

Dixon-Coles decay0.016

Goal overdispersion0.000

Implied goal variance H / A1.32 / 1.26

Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Aberdeen

Home attack strength0.917

Home defense weakness1.057

Base lambda home1.50

Attack form xGF level1.074

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.418

Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.336

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.058

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal-0.366

Model defense signal+0.022

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.08 / 1.37 / -0.29

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.06 / 1.51 / -0.44

St Mirren

Away attack strength0.894

Away defense weakness0.991

Base lambda away1.23

Attack form xGF level1.216

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)2.400

Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.161

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.893

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal-0.223

Model defense signal-0.960

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.15 / 2.52 / -1.37

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.34 / 2.17 / -0.83

Historical data coverage

Aberdeen

Total matches160

Home / away matches80 / 80

xG matches46 / 160

xG home / away coverage23 / 80 · 23 / 80

Effective total24.11

Effective attack / defense24.11 / 24.11

Effective home matches12.05

Effective home attack / defense12.05 / 12.05

St Mirren

Total matches160

Home / away matches81 / 79

xG matches46 / 160

xG home / away coverage23 / 81 · 23 / 79

Effective total24.11

Effective attack / defense24.11 / 24.11

Effective away matches12.10

Effective away attack / defense12.10 / 12.10

Historical data coverage

73.30%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 940 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.24%

1X2 log-loss vs baseline+6.86%

BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.67%

Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+1.16%

Full backtest metrics

Model

MAE total goals1.2931

Exact score log-loss2.9768

Total goals Brier0.8253

Total goals log-loss1.8746

1X2 Brier0.5894

1X2 log-loss0.9903

BTTS Brier0.2497

Over 1.5 Brier0.1699

Over 2.5 Brier0.2472

Over 3.5 Brier0.2185

League baseline

MAE total goals1.3025

Exact score log-loss3.0841

Total goals Brier0.8267

Total goals log-loss1.8791

1X2 Brier0.6424

1X2 log-loss1.0632

BTTS Brier0.2514

Over 1.5 Brier0.1705

Over 2.5 Brier0.2501

Over 3.5 Brier0.2197

Calibration diagnostics

Home win · ECE 5.29%

 0- 10%  n=4    avg=  8.5% actual= 25.0%
10- 20%  n=31   avg= 15.5% actual= 22.6%
20- 30%  n=103  avg= 24.8% actual= 14.6%
30- 40%  n=201  avg= 36.0% actual= 36.3%
40- 50%  n=369  avg= 44.1% actual= 50.1%
50- 60%  n=111  avg= 54.3% actual= 54.1%
60- 70%  n=84   avg= 64.4% actual= 75.0%
70- 80%  n=24   avg= 74.1% actual= 87.5%
80- 90%  n=11   avg= 85.0% actual= 90.9%
90-100%  n=2    avg= 92.4% actual=100.0%

Draw · ECE 3.10%

 0- 10%  n=8    avg=  8.6% actual= 12.5%
10- 20%  n=48   avg= 17.0% actual=  8.3%
20- 30%  n=880  avg= 26.6% actual= 23.9%
30- 40%  n=4    avg= 30.7% actual= 25.0%

Away win · ECE 3.20%

 0- 10%  n=32   avg=  6.4% actual=  3.1%
10- 20%  n=135  avg= 15.3% actual= 16.3%
20- 30%  n=330  avg= 26.3% actual= 23.3%
30- 40%  n=282  avg= 33.7% actual= 33.0%
40- 50%  n=86   avg= 44.9% actual= 54.7%
50- 60%  n=53   avg= 53.6% actual= 64.2%
60- 70%  n=14   avg= 65.4% actual= 64.3%
70- 80%  n=8    avg= 74.0% actual= 50.0%

BTTS · ECE 2.32%

30- 40%  n=3    avg= 37.8% actual= 33.3%
40- 50%  n=91   avg= 46.9% actual= 44.0%
50- 60%  n=829  avg= 54.1% actual= 52.1%
60- 70%  n=17   avg= 61.6% actual= 47.1%

Over 2.5 · ECE 5.06%

30- 40%  n=6    avg= 38.5% actual= 50.0%
40- 50%  n=481  avg= 48.7% actual= 51.8%
50- 60%  n=401  avg= 53.0% actual= 60.1%
60- 70%  n=40   avg= 63.5% actual= 60.0%
70- 80%  n=11   avg= 73.8% actual= 54.5%
80- 90%  n=1    avg= 82.7% actual=100.0%

Walk-forward - latest periods

Period	N	Model 1X2 LL	Baseline 1X2 LL	Improvement
2025-10	23	1.0089	1.0453	+3.48%
2025-11	22	0.9725	1.1161	+12.87%
2025-12	34	0.9366	1.0299	+9.06%
2026-01	25	0.8051	1.0731	+24.98%
2026-02	29	0.9630	1.0379	+7.22%
2026-03	16	1.1526	1.0513	-9.63%
2026-04	18	0.9239	1.0121	+8.72%
2026-05	24	1.0380	1.0573	+1.82%
2026-07	1	1.6304	1.3147	-24.01%
2026-08	18	0.9214	1.0569	+12.82%
2026-09	23	1.0485	1.1083	+5.40%
2026-10	6	0.8378	1.0221	+18.03%

Football is data.

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Aberdeen vsSt Mirren

Match probabilities.

Most likely scorelines.

Strength and recent form.

Aberdeen

St Mirren

Historical matchup context.

Total goals profile.

How the model reached the estimate.

Aberdeen

St Mirren

Aberdeen

St Mirren

Historical model performance.

Home win · ECE 5.29%

Draw · ECE 3.10%

Away win · ECE 3.20%

BTTS · ECE 2.32%

Over 2.5 · ECE 5.06%

Football is data.

Aberdeen vs
St Mirren