SCO1 · Scottish Premiership · Match Analysis

Motherwell vs
Celtic

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date11 Oct 2026

Target season2026/27

History window5 seasons

League tierTier 1

Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win

24.68%

Motherwell

Draw

26.34%

Away win

48.98%

Celtic

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.76 2.96 total

BTTS 59.23% Both teams to score

Over 1.5 80.84% 2+ total goals

Over 2.5 56.68% 3+ total goals

Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#11:112.39%

#21:29.62%

#30:28.02%

#40:17.71%

#50:06.63%

Additional scorelines

2:16.58%

2:25.78%

1:35.63%

1:04.82%

0:34.69%

Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Motherwell

Elo1518.6

Overall attack1.47

Overall defense1.39

Home attack1.54

Home defense0.81

Form signal-0.426

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.34 / 1.83

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.34 / 1.65

Last 10 xGD-0.30

League statusSTABLE · from SCO1 2025/26

Away

Celtic

Elo1663.1

Overall attack2.27

Overall defense0.99

Away attack2.31

Away defense1.22

Form signal+0.917

Last 5 xGF / xGA2.01 / 1.22

Last 10 xGF / xGA2.27 / 1.13

Last 10 xGD+1.15

League statusSTABLE · from SCO1 2025/26

Elo difference

-144.6

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches10Effective: 3.77

Average goals3.85Motherwell 1.34 · Celtic 2.51

H2H 3+ goals80.98%Historical context

H2H BTTS70.09%Model BTTS: 59.23%

H2H 2+ goals100.00%

H2H 3+ goals80.98%

H2H 4+ goals70.91%

H2H BTTS70.09%

Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

06.63%

112.53%

224.16%

322.40%

416.55%

59.78%

64.82%

7+3.13%

0–1 goals19.16%Low total

2+ goals80.84%Over 1.5

3+ goals56.68%Over 2.5

4+ goals34.28%Over 3.5

Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup

LeagueSCO1

Loaded teams14

Loaded historical matches954

Target season2026/27

Previous seasons in history4

Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27

League tierTier 1

Historical league matches954

xG matches270 / 954

Effective xG matches214.45

Observed home xG1.58

Observed away xG1.28

Model home xG baseline1.58

Model away xG baseline1.28

Total league xG baseline2.86

Home-advantage weight1.000

Model configdata/models/SCO1.json

Team attack half-life240.0 days

Team defense half-life240.0 days

Attack strength weight1.000

Defense strength weight1.000

Venue prior matches0.00

DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles

Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)

Dixon-Coles decay0.000

Goal overdispersion0.000

Implied goal variance H / A1.20 / 1.76

Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Motherwell

Home attack strength0.981

Home defense weakness0.747

Base lambda home1.31

Attack form xGF level1.341

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.766

Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.083

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.329

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal-0.089

Model defense signal-0.337

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.34 / 1.83 / -0.49

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.34 / 1.65 / -0.30

Celtic

Away attack strength1.556

Away defense weakness0.844

Base lambda away1.49

Attack form xGF level2.104

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.188

Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.581

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.151

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal+0.675

Model defense signal+0.242

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD2.01 / 1.22 / +0.79

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD2.27 / 1.13 / +1.15

Historical data coverage

Motherwell

Total matches159

Home / away matches78 / 81

xG matches45 / 159

xG home / away coverage22 / 78 · 23 / 81

Effective total23.44

Effective attack / defense23.44 / 23.44

Effective home matches11.24

Effective home attack / defense11.24 / 11.24

Celtic

Total matches159

Home / away matches80 / 79

xG matches45 / 159

xG home / away coverage23 / 80 · 22 / 79

Effective total23.50

Effective attack / defense23.50 / 23.50

Effective away matches11.28

Effective away attack / defense11.28 / 11.28

Historical data coverage

69.09%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 934 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline-0.04%

1X2 log-loss vs baseline+3.76%

BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.54%

Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+0.19%

Full backtest metrics

Model

MAE total goals1.3027

Exact score log-loss3.0325

Total goals Brier0.8273

Total goals log-loss1.8834

1X2 Brier0.6156

1X2 log-loss1.0263

BTTS Brier0.2503

Over 1.5 Brier0.1701

Over 2.5 Brier0.2497

Over 3.5 Brier0.2204

League baseline

MAE total goals1.3023

Exact score log-loss3.0870

Total goals Brier0.8274

Total goals log-loss1.8826

1X2 Brier0.6444

1X2 log-loss1.0664

BTTS Brier0.2516

Over 1.5 Brier0.1698

Over 2.5 Brier0.2501

Over 3.5 Brier0.2197

Calibration diagnostics

Home win · ECE 10.44%

10- 20%  n=20   avg= 16.0% actual= 25.0%
20- 30%  n=39   avg= 25.7% actual= 17.9%
30- 40%  n=247  avg= 37.1% actual= 29.1%
40- 50%  n=537  avg= 42.9% actual= 54.6%
50- 60%  n=41   avg= 53.4% actual= 41.5%
60- 70%  n=33   avg= 63.8% actual= 75.8%
70- 80%  n=13   avg= 75.3% actual= 84.6%
80- 90%  n=4    avg= 84.8% actual=100.0%

Draw · ECE 5.43%

 0- 10%  n=1    avg=  9.0% actual=  0.0%
10- 20%  n=22   avg= 16.9% actual=  9.1%
20- 30%  n=868  avg= 28.4% actual= 22.9%
30- 40%  n=43   avg= 31.2% actual= 34.9%

Away win · ECE 7.57%

 0- 10%  n=18   avg=  7.0% actual=  5.6%
10- 20%  n=56   avg= 15.7% actual= 19.6%
20- 30%  n=456  avg= 27.5% actual= 20.8%
30- 40%  n=343  avg= 32.6% actual= 42.6%
40- 50%  n=32   avg= 44.9% actual= 46.9%
50- 60%  n=17   avg= 54.8% actual= 47.1%
60- 70%  n=11   avg= 63.3% actual= 72.7%
70- 80%  n=1    avg= 70.9% actual=  0.0%

BTTS · ECE 3.59%

30- 40%  n=3    avg= 38.1% actual=  0.0%
40- 50%  n=67   avg= 46.6% actual= 47.8%
50- 60%  n=825  avg= 55.0% actual= 51.5%
60- 70%  n=39   avg= 62.7% actual= 56.4%

Over 2.5 · ECE 6.17%

30- 40%  n=15   avg= 36.8% actual= 26.7%
40- 50%  n=577  avg= 48.7% actual= 54.8%
50- 60%  n=296  avg= 52.0% actual= 58.4%
60- 70%  n=41   avg= 64.1% actual= 61.0%
70- 80%  n=5    avg= 74.1% actual= 60.0%

Walk-forward - latest periods

Period	N	Model 1X2 LL	Baseline 1X2 LL	Improvement
2025-09	15	1.1264	1.1263	-0.01%
2025-10	23	0.9993	1.0516	+4.97%
2025-11	22	0.9961	1.1143	+10.61%
2025-12	34	0.9362	1.0301	+9.11%
2026-01	25	0.8692	1.0779	+19.36%
2026-02	29	0.9587	1.0372	+7.57%
2026-03	16	1.1289	1.0485	-7.67%
2026-04	18	0.9330	1.0215	+8.66%
2026-05	24	1.0772	1.0639	-1.26%
2026-07	1	1.5515	1.2725	-21.93%
2026-08	18	0.9447	1.0669	+11.46%
2026-09	23	1.0227	1.1095	+7.83%

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Motherwell vsCeltic

Match probabilities.

Most likely scorelines.

Strength and recent form.

Motherwell

Celtic

Historical matchup context.

Total goals profile.

How the model reached the estimate.

Motherwell

Celtic

Motherwell

Celtic

Historical model performance.

Home win · ECE 10.44%

Draw · ECE 5.43%

Away win · ECE 7.57%

BTTS · ECE 3.59%

Over 2.5 · ECE 6.17%

Football is data.

Motherwell vs
Celtic