SCO1 · Scottish Premiership · Match Analysis

Hearts vs
St Mirren

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date10 Oct 2026

Target season2026/27

History window5 seasons

League tierTier 1

Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win

55.84%

Hearts

Draw

27.36%

Away win

16.80%

St Mirren

Expected goals 1.65 – 0.81 2.46 total

BTTS 46.38% Both teams to score

Over 1.5 71.96% 2+ total goals

Over 2.5 44.63% 3+ total goals

Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#11:112.90%

#21:012.59%

#32:011.62%

#40:010.02%

#52:19.42%

Additional scorelines

3:06.39%

0:15.44%

3:15.18%

1:24.63%

2:23.82%

Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Hearts

Elo1593.9

Overall attack1.57

Overall defense1.12

Home attack1.66

Home defense0.87

Form signal+0.618

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.76 / 1.08

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.68 / 1.18

Last 10 xGD+0.50

League statusSTABLE · from SCO1 2025/26

Away

St Mirren

Elo1449.5

Overall attack1.20

Overall defense1.35

Away attack1.10

Away defense1.36

Form signal-0.458

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.46 / 2.03

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.45 / 1.71

Last 10 xGD-0.26

League statusSTABLE · from SCO1 2025/26

Elo difference

+144.5

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches10Effective: 3.19

Average goals2.70Hearts 1.72 · St Mirren 0.98

H2H 3+ goals53.38%Historical context

H2H BTTS45.41%Model BTTS: 46.38%

H2H 2+ goals76.68%

H2H 3+ goals53.38%

H2H 4+ goals40.33%

H2H BTTS45.41%

Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

010.02%

118.03%

227.33%

321.20%

413.05%

56.42%

62.64%

7+1.31%

0–1 goals28.04%Low total

2+ goals71.96%Over 1.5

3+ goals44.63%Over 2.5

4+ goals23.42%Over 3.5

Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup

LeagueSCO1

Loaded teams14

Loaded historical matches954

Target season2026/27

Previous seasons in history4

Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27

League tierTier 1

Historical league matches954

xG matches270 / 954

Effective xG matches214.65

Observed home xG1.58

Observed away xG1.28

Model home xG baseline1.58

Model away xG baseline1.28

Total league xG baseline2.86

Home-advantage weight1.000

Model configdata/models/SCO1.json

Team attack half-life240.0 days

Team defense half-life240.0 days

Attack strength weight1.000

Defense strength weight1.000

Venue prior matches0.00

DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles

Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)

Dixon-Coles decay0.000

Goal overdispersion0.000

Implied goal variance H / A1.65 / 0.81

Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Hearts

Home attack strength1.036

Home defense weakness0.778

Base lambda home1.48

Attack form xGF level1.732

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.114

Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.299

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.311

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal+0.303

Model defense signal+0.315

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.76 / 1.08 / +0.68

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.68 / 1.18 / +0.50

St Mirren

Away attack strength0.902

Away defense weakness0.905

Base lambda away0.90

Attack form xGF level1.459

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.917

Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.029

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.488

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal+0.029

Model defense signal-0.488

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.46 / 2.03 / -0.57

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.45 / 1.71 / -0.26

Historical data coverage

Hearts

Total matches159

Home / away matches79 / 80

xG matches45 / 159

xG home / away coverage22 / 79 · 23 / 80

Effective total23.46

Effective attack / defense23.46 / 23.46

Effective home matches11.19

Effective home attack / defense11.19 / 11.19

St Mirren

Total matches159

Home / away matches81 / 78

xG matches45 / 159

xG home / away coverage23 / 81 · 22 / 78

Effective total23.60

Effective attack / defense23.60 / 23.60

Effective away matches11.35

Effective away attack / defense11.35 / 11.35

Historical data coverage

68.20%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 934 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline-0.04%

1X2 log-loss vs baseline+3.76%

BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.54%

Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+0.19%

Full backtest metrics

Model

MAE total goals1.3027

Exact score log-loss3.0325

Total goals Brier0.8273

Total goals log-loss1.8834

1X2 Brier0.6156

1X2 log-loss1.0263

BTTS Brier0.2503

Over 1.5 Brier0.1701

Over 2.5 Brier0.2497

Over 3.5 Brier0.2204

League baseline

MAE total goals1.3023

Exact score log-loss3.0870

Total goals Brier0.8274

Total goals log-loss1.8826

1X2 Brier0.6444

1X2 log-loss1.0664

BTTS Brier0.2516

Over 1.5 Brier0.1698

Over 2.5 Brier0.2501

Over 3.5 Brier0.2197

Calibration diagnostics

Home win · ECE 10.44%

10- 20%  n=20   avg= 16.0% actual= 25.0%
20- 30%  n=39   avg= 25.7% actual= 17.9%
30- 40%  n=247  avg= 37.1% actual= 29.1%
40- 50%  n=537  avg= 42.9% actual= 54.6%
50- 60%  n=41   avg= 53.4% actual= 41.5%
60- 70%  n=33   avg= 63.8% actual= 75.8%
70- 80%  n=13   avg= 75.3% actual= 84.6%
80- 90%  n=4    avg= 84.8% actual=100.0%

Draw · ECE 5.43%

 0- 10%  n=1    avg=  9.0% actual=  0.0%
10- 20%  n=22   avg= 16.9% actual=  9.1%
20- 30%  n=868  avg= 28.4% actual= 22.9%
30- 40%  n=43   avg= 31.2% actual= 34.9%

Away win · ECE 7.57%

 0- 10%  n=18   avg=  7.0% actual=  5.6%
10- 20%  n=56   avg= 15.7% actual= 19.6%
20- 30%  n=456  avg= 27.5% actual= 20.8%
30- 40%  n=343  avg= 32.6% actual= 42.6%
40- 50%  n=32   avg= 44.9% actual= 46.9%
50- 60%  n=17   avg= 54.8% actual= 47.1%
60- 70%  n=11   avg= 63.3% actual= 72.7%
70- 80%  n=1    avg= 70.9% actual=  0.0%

BTTS · ECE 3.59%

30- 40%  n=3    avg= 38.1% actual=  0.0%
40- 50%  n=67   avg= 46.6% actual= 47.8%
50- 60%  n=825  avg= 55.0% actual= 51.5%
60- 70%  n=39   avg= 62.7% actual= 56.4%

Over 2.5 · ECE 6.17%

30- 40%  n=15   avg= 36.8% actual= 26.7%
40- 50%  n=577  avg= 48.7% actual= 54.8%
50- 60%  n=296  avg= 52.0% actual= 58.4%
60- 70%  n=41   avg= 64.1% actual= 61.0%
70- 80%  n=5    avg= 74.1% actual= 60.0%

Walk-forward - latest periods

Period	N	Model 1X2 LL	Baseline 1X2 LL	Improvement
2025-09	15	1.1264	1.1263	-0.01%
2025-10	23	0.9993	1.0516	+4.97%
2025-11	22	0.9961	1.1143	+10.61%
2025-12	34	0.9362	1.0301	+9.11%
2026-01	25	0.8692	1.0779	+19.36%
2026-02	29	0.9587	1.0372	+7.57%
2026-03	16	1.1289	1.0485	-7.67%
2026-04	18	0.9330	1.0215	+8.66%
2026-05	24	1.0772	1.0639	-1.26%
2026-07	1	1.5515	1.2725	-21.93%
2026-08	18	0.9447	1.0669	+11.46%
2026-09	23	1.0227	1.1095	+7.83%

Football is data.

NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.

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Hearts vsSt Mirren

Match probabilities.

Most likely scorelines.

Strength and recent form.

Hearts

St Mirren

Historical matchup context.

Total goals profile.

How the model reached the estimate.

Hearts

St Mirren

Hearts

St Mirren

Historical model performance.

Home win · ECE 10.44%

Draw · ECE 5.43%

Away win · ECE 7.57%

BTTS · ECE 3.59%

Over 2.5 · ECE 6.17%

Football is data.

Hearts vs
St Mirren