SCO1 · Scottish Premiership · Match Analysis

Kilmarnock vs
Hearts

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date19 Sep 2026

Target season2026/27

History window5 seasons

League tierTier 1

Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win

21.06%

Kilmarnock

Draw

23.89%

Away win

55.04%

Hearts

Expected goals 1.20 – 2.02 3.23 total

BTTS 62.00% Both teams to score

Over 1.5 84.48% 2+ total goals

Over 2.5 62.57% 3+ total goals

Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#11:110.92%

#21:29.77%

#30:28.12%

#40:16.77%

#51:36.59%

Additional scorelines

2:25.89%

2:15.82%

0:35.47%

0:05.23%

2:33.97%

Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Kilmarnock

Elo1447.9

Overall attack1.29

Overall defense1.89

Home attack1.42

Home defense1.91

Form signal-0.657

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.28 / 2.07

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.50 / 1.90

Last 10 xGD-0.40

League statusSTABLE · from SCO1 2025/26

Away

Hearts

Elo1596.3

Overall attack1.56

Overall defense1.15

Away attack1.45

Away defense1.43

Form signal+0.400

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.75 / 1.26

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.59 / 1.37

Last 10 xGD+0.22

League statusSTABLE · from SCO1 2025/26

Elo difference

-148.4

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches10Effective: 3.60

Average goals1.96Kilmarnock 0.81 · Hearts 1.14

H2H 3+ goals31.07%Historical context

H2H BTTS37.42%Model BTTS: 62.00%

H2H 2+ goals52.11%

H2H 3+ goals31.07%

H2H 4+ goals8.87%

H2H BTTS37.42%

Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

05.23%

110.29%

221.92%

322.22%

417.93%

511.57%

66.22%

7+4.63%

0–1 goals15.52%Low total

2+ goals84.48%Over 1.5

3+ goals62.57%Over 2.5

4+ goals40.34%Over 3.5

Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup

LeagueSCO1

Loaded teams14

Loaded historical matches948

Target season2026/27

Previous seasons in history4

Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27

League tierTier 1

Historical league matches948

xG matches264 / 948

Effective xG matches213.04

Observed home xG1.60

Observed away xG1.28

Model home xG baseline1.60

Model away xG baseline1.28

Total league xG baseline2.87

Home-advantage weight1.000

Model configdata/models/SCO1.json

Team attack half-life240.0 days

Team defense half-life240.0 days

Attack strength weight1.000

Defense strength weight1.000

Venue prior matches0.00

DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles

Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)

Dixon-Coles decay0.000

Goal overdispersion0.000

Implied goal variance H / A1.20 / 2.02

Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Kilmarnock

Home attack strength0.920

Home defense weakness1.351

Base lambda home1.36

Attack form xGF level1.355

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)2.012

Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.049

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.540

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal-0.083

Model defense signal-0.575

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.28 / 2.07 / -0.79

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.50 / 1.90 / -0.40

Hearts

Away attack strength1.098

Away defense weakness0.926

Base lambda away1.89

Attack form xGF level1.696

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.296

Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.206

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.093

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal+0.259

Model defense signal+0.142

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.75 / 1.26 / +0.50

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.59 / 1.37 / +0.22

Historical data coverage

Kilmarnock

Total matches158

Home / away matches79 / 79

xG matches44 / 158

xG home / away coverage22 / 79 · 22 / 79

Effective total23.90

Effective attack / defense23.90 / 23.90

Effective home matches11.83

Effective home attack / defense11.83 / 11.83

Hearts

Total matches158

Home / away matches79 / 79

xG matches44 / 158

xG home / away coverage22 / 79 · 22 / 79

Effective total23.93

Effective attack / defense23.93 / 23.93

Effective away matches12.04

Effective away attack / defense12.04 / 12.04

Historical data coverage

71.62%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 928 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline-0.03%

1X2 log-loss vs baseline+3.84%

BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.59%

Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+0.21%

Full backtest metrics

Model

MAE total goals1.3056

Exact score log-loss3.0349

Total goals Brier0.8278

Total goals log-loss1.8853

1X2 Brier0.6143

1X2 log-loss1.0247

BTTS Brier0.2503

Over 1.5 Brier0.1702

Over 2.5 Brier0.2495

Over 3.5 Brier0.2211

League baseline

MAE total goals1.3056

Exact score log-loss3.0905

Total goals Brier0.8281

Total goals log-loss1.8848

1X2 Brier0.6438

1X2 log-loss1.0656

BTTS Brier0.2518

Over 1.5 Brier0.1700

Over 2.5 Brier0.2500

Over 3.5 Brier0.2205

Calibration diagnostics

Home win · ECE 10.44%

10- 20%  n=20   avg= 16.0% actual= 25.0%
20- 30%  n=38   avg= 25.9% actual= 18.4%
30- 40%  n=245  avg= 37.1% actual= 29.0%
40- 50%  n=536  avg= 42.9% actual= 54.7%
50- 60%  n=39   avg= 53.2% actual= 43.6%
60- 70%  n=33   avg= 63.8% actual= 75.8%
70- 80%  n=13   avg= 75.3% actual= 84.6%
80- 90%  n=4    avg= 84.8% actual=100.0%

Draw · ECE 5.62%

 0- 10%  n=1    avg=  9.0% actual=  0.0%
10- 20%  n=22   avg= 16.9% actual=  9.1%
20- 30%  n=862  avg= 28.4% actual= 22.7%
30- 40%  n=43   avg= 31.2% actual= 34.9%

Away win · ECE 7.60%

 0- 10%  n=18   avg=  7.0% actual=  5.6%
10- 20%  n=55   avg= 15.7% actual= 20.0%
20- 30%  n=454  avg= 27.5% actual= 20.7%
30- 40%  n=341  avg= 32.6% actual= 42.5%
40- 50%  n=32   avg= 44.9% actual= 46.9%
50- 60%  n=16   avg= 54.8% actual= 50.0%
60- 70%  n=11   avg= 63.3% actual= 72.7%
70- 80%  n=1    avg= 70.9% actual=  0.0%

BTTS · ECE 3.55%

30- 40%  n=3    avg= 38.1% actual=  0.0%
40- 50%  n=66   avg= 46.6% actual= 47.0%
50- 60%  n=823  avg= 55.0% actual= 51.5%
60- 70%  n=36   avg= 62.6% actual= 55.6%

Over 2.5 · ECE 6.16%

30- 40%  n=15   avg= 36.8% actual= 26.7%
40- 50%  n=575  avg= 48.7% actual= 55.0%
50- 60%  n=295  avg= 52.0% actual= 58.3%
60- 70%  n=38   avg= 64.3% actual= 63.2%
70- 80%  n=5    avg= 74.1% actual= 60.0%

Walk-forward - latest periods

Period	N	Model 1X2 LL	Baseline 1X2 LL	Improvement
2025-09	15	1.1264	1.1263	-0.01%
2025-10	23	0.9993	1.0516	+4.97%
2025-11	22	0.9961	1.1143	+10.61%
2025-12	34	0.9362	1.0301	+9.11%
2026-01	25	0.8692	1.0779	+19.36%
2026-02	29	0.9587	1.0372	+7.57%
2026-03	16	1.1289	1.0485	-7.67%
2026-04	18	0.9330	1.0215	+8.66%
2026-05	24	1.0772	1.0639	-1.26%
2026-07	1	1.5515	1.2725	-21.93%
2026-08	18	0.9447	1.0669	+11.46%
2026-09	17	0.9311	1.0794	+13.74%

Football is data.

NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.

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Kilmarnock vsHearts

Match probabilities.

Most likely scorelines.

Strength and recent form.

Kilmarnock

Hearts

Historical matchup context.

Total goals profile.

How the model reached the estimate.

Kilmarnock

Hearts

Kilmarnock

Hearts

Historical model performance.

Home win · ECE 10.44%

Draw · ECE 5.62%

Away win · ECE 7.60%

BTTS · ECE 3.55%

Over 2.5 · ECE 6.16%

Football is data.

Kilmarnock vs
Hearts