Home win
42.66%
FC Arouca
POR1 · Primeira Liga · Match Analysis
FC Arouca vs
CF Estrela da Amadora
Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.
Model output
Match probabilities.
Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.
Draw
27.98%
X
Away win
29.36%
CF Estrela da Amadora
Score model
Most likely scorelines.
Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.
Additional scorelines
2:07.25%
0:16.04%
2:25.74%
0:24.76%
3:14.72%
Team context
Strength and recent form.
Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.
Home
FC Arouca
Elo1512.8
Overall attack1.18
Overall defense1.48
Home attack1.37
Home defense1.36
Form signal-0.062
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.36 / 1.46
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.38 / 1.37
Last 10 xGD+0.01
League statusSTABLE · from POR1 2025/26
Away
CF Estrela da Amadora
Elo1459.0
Overall attack1.22
Overall defense1.63
Away attack1.23
Away defense1.67
Form signal-0.348
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.25 / 1.53
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.24 / 1.71
Last 10 xGD-0.47
League statusSTABLE · from POR1 2025/26
Elo difference
+53.8
Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.
Head-to-head
Historical matchup context.
H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.
Goal distribution
Total goals profile.
The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.
07.55%
113.86%
225.30%
322.26%
415.64%
58.79%
64.12%
7+2.48%
Technical detail
How the model reached the estimate.
Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.
League baseline and model setup
LeaguePOR1
Loaded teams26
Loaded historical matches1286
Target season2026/27
Previous seasons in history4
Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27
League tierTier 1
Historical league matches1286
xG matches368 / 1286
Effective xG matches294.02
Observed home xG1.44
Observed away xG1.21
Model home xG baseline1.44
Model away xG baseline1.21
Total league xG baseline2.65
Home-advantage weight1.000
Model configdata/models/POR1.json
Team attack half-life240.0 days
Team defense half-life240.0 days
Attack strength weight1.000
Defense strength weight1.000
Venue prior matches0.00
DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles
Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)
Dixon-Coles decay0.000
Goal overdispersion0.000
Implied goal variance H / A1.55 / 1.26
Relative strengths and form diagnostics
FC Arouca
Home attack strength0.966
Home defense weakness1.082
Base lambda home1.54
Attack form xGF level1.366
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.428
Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.077
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.060
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal+0.040
Model defense signal-0.102
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.36 / 1.46 / -0.10
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.38 / 1.37 / +0.01
CF Estrela da Amadora
Away attack strength1.012
Away defense weakness1.110
Base lambda away1.32
Attack form xGF level1.247
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.595
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.080
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.275
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal-0.078
Model defense signal-0.270
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.25 / 1.53 / -0.28
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.24 / 1.71 / -0.47
Historical data coverage
FC Arouca
Total matches143
Home / away matches71 / 72
xG matches41 / 143
xG home / away coverage20 / 71 · 21 / 72
Effective total21.76
Effective attack / defense21.76 / 21.76
Effective home matches10.36
Effective home attack / defense10.36 / 10.36
CF Estrela da Amadora
Total matches109
Home / away matches55 / 54
xG matches41 / 109
xG home / away coverage21 / 55 · 20 / 54
Effective total21.81
Effective attack / defense21.81 / 21.81
Effective away matches10.54
Effective away attack / defense10.54 / 10.54
Historical data coverage
61.37%
This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.
Validation
Historical model performance.
Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1266 historical matches.
Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.
Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.24%
1X2 log-loss vs baseline+4.98%
BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.16%
Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+1.40%
Full backtest metrics
Model
MAE total goals1.2923
Exact score log-loss2.9441
Total goals Brier0.8262
Total goals log-loss1.8573
1X2 Brier0.6154
1X2 log-loss1.0253
BTTS Brier0.2533
Over 1.5 Brier0.1973
Over 2.5 Brier0.2470
Over 3.5 Brier0.2062
League baseline
MAE total goals1.3075
Exact score log-loss3.0174
Total goals Brier0.8282
Total goals log-loss1.8617
1X2 Brier0.6525
1X2 log-loss1.0790
BTTS Brier0.2537
Over 1.5 Brier0.1984
Over 2.5 Brier0.2505
Over 3.5 Brier0.2073
Calibration diagnostics
Home win · ECE 10.54%
0- 10% n=9 avg= 6.2% actual= 33.3% 10- 20% n=51 avg= 16.0% actual= 17.6% 20- 30% n=39 avg= 25.6% actual= 23.1% 30- 40% n=324 avg= 37.2% actual= 22.8% 40- 50% n=731 avg= 42.5% actual= 53.2% 50- 60% n=58 avg= 54.7% actual= 53.4% 60- 70% n=25 avg= 65.2% actual= 68.0% 70- 80% n=23 avg= 75.0% actual= 87.0% 80- 90% n=6 avg= 82.0% actual= 83.3%
Draw · ECE 4.53%
10- 20% n=44 avg= 16.7% actual= 13.6% 20- 30% n=1134 avg= 28.5% actual= 23.8% 30- 40% n=88 avg= 31.3% actual= 34.1%
Away win · ECE 11.26%
0- 10% n=30 avg= 7.2% actual= 0.0% 10- 20% n=62 avg= 15.5% actual= 6.5% 20- 30% n=599 avg= 27.9% actual= 19.7% 30- 40% n=475 avg= 32.3% actual= 47.8% 40- 50% n=36 avg= 44.7% actual= 41.7% 50- 60% n=31 avg= 53.9% actual= 41.9% 60- 70% n=24 avg= 65.1% actual= 87.5% 70- 80% n=7 avg= 75.5% actual= 57.1% 80- 90% n=2 avg= 85.6% actual= 50.0%
BTTS · ECE 5.49%
30- 40% n=5 avg= 36.6% actual= 40.0% 40- 50% n=149 avg= 46.5% actual= 47.7% 50- 60% n=1090 avg= 54.9% actual= 48.9% 60- 70% n=22 avg= 61.4% actual= 50.0%
Over 2.5 · ECE 2.67%
30- 40% n=33 avg= 37.4% actual= 36.4% 40- 50% n=973 avg= 48.7% actual= 48.3% 50- 60% n=219 avg= 52.8% actual= 65.8% 60- 70% n=37 avg= 63.7% actual= 67.6% 70- 80% n=4 avg= 72.3% actual= 75.0%
Walk-forward - latest periods
| Period | N | Model 1X2 LL | Baseline 1X2 LL | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08 | 34 | 1.1609 | 1.2374 | +6.18% |
| 2025-09 | 29 | 1.0040 | 1.0960 | +8.39% |
| 2025-10 | 19 | 0.9447 | 1.0662 | +11.39% |
| 2025-11 | 25 | 0.9458 | 1.1352 | +16.69% |
| 2025-12 | 35 | 0.9457 | 1.0913 | +13.34% |
| 2026-01 | 33 | 0.8697 | 1.0548 | +17.55% |
| 2026-02 | 37 | 0.8835 | 1.0452 | +15.47% |
| 2026-03 | 29 | 1.0190 | 1.1271 | +9.59% |
| 2026-04 | 38 | 0.9623 | 1.0754 | +10.52% |
| 2026-05 | 27 | 1.0726 | 1.0879 | +1.40% |
| 2026-08 | 33 | 0.9133 | 1.0818 | +15.58% |
| 2026-09 | 29 | 1.0078 | 1.1078 | +9.02% |
Football is data.
NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.