Home win
27.44%
PEC Zwolle
NED1 · Eredivisie · Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle vs
Go Ahead Eagles
Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.
Model output
Match probabilities.
Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.
Draw
24.91%
X
Away win
47.65%
Go Ahead Eagles
Score model
Most likely scorelines.
Exact-score probabilities from the NB2 + Dixon-Coles goal model.
Additional scorelines
2:25.89%
0:05.87%
1:35.45%
1:05.04%
0:34.32%
Team context
Strength and recent form.
Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.
Home
PEC Zwolle
Elo1436.0
Overall attack1.17
Overall defense1.90
Home attack1.26
Home defense1.72
Form signal-1.059
Last 5 xGF / xGA0.89 / 1.97
Last 10 xGF / xGA0.94 / 1.96
Last 10 xGD-1.02
League statusSTABLE · from NED1 2025/26
Away
Go Ahead Eagles
Elo1504.5
Overall attack1.55
Overall defense1.92
Away attack1.32
Away defense2.35
Form signal+0.417
Last 5 xGF / xGA2.23 / 1.66
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.99 / 1.84
Last 10 xGD+0.15
League statusSTABLE · from NED1 2025/26
Elo difference
-68.4
Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.
Head-to-head
Historical matchup context.
H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.
Goal distribution
Total goals profile.
The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.
05.87%
112.22%
222.40%
321.85%
416.96%
510.69%
65.70%
7+4.33%
Technical detail
How the model reached the estimate.
Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.
League baseline and model setup
LeagueNED1
Loaded teams25
Loaded historical matches1296
Target season2026/27
Previous seasons in history4
Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27
League tierTier 1
Historical league matches1296
xG matches378 / 1296
Effective xG matches300.50
Observed home xG1.78
Observed away xG1.44
Model home xG baseline1.82
Model away xG baseline1.41
Total league xG baseline3.22
Home-advantage weight1.238
Model configdata/models/NED1.json
Team attack half-life240.0 days
Team defense half-life240.0 days
Attack strength weight1.012
Defense strength weight0.828
Venue prior matches0.00
DistributionNB2 + Dixon-Coles
Dixon-Coles rho-0.095 (effective -0.094)
Dixon-Coles decay0.028
Goal overdispersion0.031
Implied goal variance H / A1.37 / 1.90
Relative strengths and form diagnostics
PEC Zwolle
Home attack strength0.820
Home defense weakness1.116
Base lambda home1.72
Attack form xGF level0.907
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.966
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.706
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.358
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal-0.704
Model defense signal-0.355
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD0.89 / 1.97 / -1.08
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD0.94 / 1.96 / -1.02
Go Ahead Eagles
Away attack strength0.945
Away defense weakness1.198
Base lambda away1.45
Attack form xGF level2.144
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.727
Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.538
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.108
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal+0.533
Model defense signal-0.116
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD2.23 / 1.66 / +0.56
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.99 / 1.84 / +0.15
Historical data coverage
PEC Zwolle
Total matches110
Home / away matches55 / 55
xG matches42 / 110
xG home / away coverage21 / 55 · 21 / 55
Effective total22.05
Effective attack / defense22.05 / 22.05
Effective home matches11.17
Effective home attack / defense11.17 / 11.17
Go Ahead Eagles
Total matches144
Home / away matches72 / 72
xG matches42 / 144
xG home / away coverage21 / 72 · 21 / 72
Effective total22.07
Effective attack / defense22.07 / 22.07
Effective away matches10.97
Effective away attack / defense10.97 / 10.97
Historical data coverage
63.51%
This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.
Validation
Historical model performance.
Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1276 historical matches.
Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.
Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.66%
1X2 log-loss vs baseline+6.39%
BTTS Brier vs baseline-0.04%
Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+1.28%
Full backtest metrics
Model
MAE total goals1.3977
Exact score log-loss3.1300
Total goals Brier0.8380
Total goals log-loss1.9536
1X2 Brier0.6010
1X2 log-loss1.0049
BTTS Brier0.2427
Over 1.5 Brier0.1404
Over 2.5 Brier0.2431
Over 3.5 Brier0.2432
League baseline
MAE total goals1.4089
Exact score log-loss3.2374
Total goals Brier0.8400
Total goals log-loss1.9665
1X2 Brier0.6494
1X2 log-loss1.0734
BTTS Brier0.2426
Over 1.5 Brier0.1421
Over 2.5 Brier0.2463
Over 3.5 Brier0.2471
Calibration diagnostics
Home win · ECE 6.54%
0- 10% n=5 avg= 9.0% actual= 20.0% 10- 20% n=28 avg= 16.8% actual= 14.3% 20- 30% n=101 avg= 26.3% actual= 19.8% 30- 40% n=290 avg= 36.1% actual= 23.8% 40- 50% n=546 avg= 44.5% actual= 48.5% 50- 60% n=175 avg= 54.3% actual= 62.9% 60- 70% n=75 avg= 64.0% actual= 65.3% 70- 80% n=37 avg= 74.3% actual= 70.3% 80- 90% n=19 avg= 84.0% actual= 84.2%
Draw · ECE 1.58%
0- 10% n=8 avg= 8.7% actual= 25.0% 10- 20% n=92 avg= 16.6% actual= 21.7% 20- 30% n=1176 avg= 26.6% actual= 25.4%
Away win · ECE 7.41%
0- 10% n=39 avg= 6.9% actual= 2.6% 10- 20% n=152 avg= 16.1% actual= 13.8% 20- 30% n=528 avg= 26.0% actual= 19.7% 30- 40% n=376 avg= 33.7% actual= 44.7% 40- 50% n=113 avg= 44.0% actual= 53.1% 50- 60% n=42 avg= 54.2% actual= 52.4% 60- 70% n=21 avg= 64.8% actual= 76.2% 70- 80% n=4 avg= 75.8% actual= 50.0% 80- 90% n=1 avg= 80.1% actual=100.0%
BTTS · ECE 2.40%
40- 50% n=34 avg= 47.8% actual= 50.0% 50- 60% n=1076 avg= 53.9% actual= 56.2% 60- 70% n=156 avg= 63.6% actual= 65.4% 70- 80% n=10 avg= 72.2% actual= 90.0%
Over 2.5 · ECE 7.60%
40- 50% n=657 avg= 48.9% actual= 56.8% 50- 60% n=390 avg= 53.5% actual= 63.8% 60- 70% n=153 avg= 64.4% actual= 63.4% 70- 80% n=66 avg= 73.4% actual= 69.7% 80- 90% n=10 avg= 83.2% actual= 90.0%
Walk-forward - latest periods
| Period | N | Model 1X2 LL | Baseline 1X2 LL | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09 | 29 | 0.9490 | 1.0452 | +9.20% |
| 2025-10 | 28 | 0.8736 | 1.0587 | +17.48% |
| 2025-11 | 34 | 1.0856 | 1.0480 | -3.58% |
| 2025-12 | 27 | 0.9866 | 1.1128 | +11.34% |
| 2026-01 | 30 | 1.1591 | 1.1345 | -2.17% |
| 2026-02 | 38 | 1.0177 | 1.0729 | +5.15% |
| 2026-03 | 32 | 1.0199 | 1.0455 | +2.44% |
| 2026-04 | 27 | 0.8740 | 1.0770 | +18.85% |
| 2026-05 | 27 | 1.0036 | 1.1111 | +9.67% |
| 2026-08 | 33 | 1.0228 | 1.1116 | +8.00% |
| 2026-09 | 30 | 1.0074 | 1.1451 | +12.03% |
| 2026-10 | 9 | 1.0607 | 1.1531 | +8.01% |
Football is data.
NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.