NED1 · Eredivisie · Match Analysis

Heerenveen vs
Excelsior

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date16 Oct 2026

Target season2026/27

History window5 seasons

League tierTier 1

Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win

53.99%

Heerenveen

Draw

24.15%

Away win

21.85%

Excelsior

Expected goals 1.90 - 1.14 3.04 total

BTTS 57.62% Both teams to score

Over 1.5 80.90% 2+ total goals

Over 2.5 58.01% 3+ total goals

Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the NB2 + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#11:111.11%

#22:19.42%

#32:08.59%

#41:08.27%

#50:06.19%

Additional scorelines

3:16.00%

1:25.74%

3:05.47%

2:25.32%

0:14.64%

Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Heerenveen

Elo1515.2

Overall attack1.62

Overall defense1.54

Home attack1.74

Home defense1.25

Form signal+0.163

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.62 / 1.36

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.48 / 1.49

Last 10 xGD-0.02

League statusSTABLE · from NED1 2025/26

Away

Excelsior

Elo1472.6

Overall attack1.41

Overall defense1.74

Away attack1.44

Away defense1.81

Form signal-0.728

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.32 / 2.12

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.30 / 1.89

Last 10 xGD-0.59

League statusSTABLE · from NED1 2025/26

Elo difference

+42.6

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches6Effective: 1.57

Average goals2.74Heerenveen 1.50 · Excelsior 1.24

H2H 3+ goals89.96%Historical context

H2H BTTS72.84%Model BTTS: 57.62%

H2H 2+ goals89.96%

H2H 3+ goals89.96%

H2H 4+ goals0.00%

H2H BTTS72.84%

Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

06.19%

112.91%

222.89%

321.86%

416.61%

510.25%

65.35%

7+3.94%

0-1 goals19.10%Low total

2+ goals80.90%Over 1.5

3+ goals58.01%Over 2.5

4+ goals36.15%Over 3.5

Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup

LeagueNED1

Loaded teams25

Loaded historical matches1296

Target season2026/27

Previous seasons in history4

Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27

League tierTier 1

Historical league matches1296

xG matches378 / 1296

Effective xG matches301.08

Observed home xG1.78

Observed away xG1.44

Model home xG baseline1.82

Model away xG baseline1.41

Total league xG baseline3.22

Home-advantage weight1.238

Model configdata/models/NED1.json

Team attack half-life240.0 days

Team defense half-life240.0 days

Attack strength weight1.012

Defense strength weight0.828

Venue prior matches0.00

DistributionNB2 + Dixon-Coles

Dixon-Coles rho-0.095 (effective -0.094)

Dixon-Coles decay0.028

Goal overdispersion0.031

Implied goal variance H / A2.02 / 1.18

Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Heerenveen

Home attack strength0.989

Home defense weakness0.919

Base lambda home1.81

Attack form xGF level1.570

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.407

Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.010

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.258

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal-0.041

Model defense signal+0.204

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.62 / 1.36 / +0.26

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.48 / 1.49 / -0.02

Excelsior

Away attack strength0.999

Away defense weakness1.011

Base lambda away1.31

Attack form xGF level1.312

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)2.040

Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.277

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.406

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal-0.299

Model defense signal-0.430

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.32 / 2.12 / -0.80

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.30 / 1.89 / -0.59

Historical data coverage

Heerenveen

Total matches144

Home / away matches72 / 72

xG matches42 / 144

xG home / away coverage21 / 72 · 21 / 72

Effective total22.18

Effective attack / defense22.18 / 22.18

Effective home matches10.92

Effective home attack / defense10.92 / 10.92

Excelsior

Total matches110

Home / away matches55 / 55

xG matches42 / 110

xG home / away coverage21 / 55 · 21 / 55

Effective total22.23

Effective attack / defense22.23 / 22.23

Effective away matches11.17

Effective away attack / defense11.17 / 11.17

Historical data coverage

63.27%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1276 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.66%

1X2 log-loss vs baseline+6.39%

BTTS Brier vs baseline-0.04%

Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+1.28%

Full backtest metrics

Model

MAE total goals1.3977

Exact score log-loss3.1300

Total goals Brier0.8380

Total goals log-loss1.9536

1X2 Brier0.6010

1X2 log-loss1.0049

BTTS Brier0.2427

Over 1.5 Brier0.1404

Over 2.5 Brier0.2431

Over 3.5 Brier0.2432

League baseline

MAE total goals1.4089

Exact score log-loss3.2374

Total goals Brier0.8400

Total goals log-loss1.9665

1X2 Brier0.6494

1X2 log-loss1.0734

BTTS Brier0.2426

Over 1.5 Brier0.1421

Over 2.5 Brier0.2463

Over 3.5 Brier0.2471

Calibration diagnostics

Home win · ECE 6.54%

 0- 10%  n=5    avg=  9.0% actual= 20.0%
10- 20%  n=28   avg= 16.8% actual= 14.3%
20- 30%  n=101  avg= 26.3% actual= 19.8%
30- 40%  n=290  avg= 36.1% actual= 23.8%
40- 50%  n=546  avg= 44.5% actual= 48.5%
50- 60%  n=175  avg= 54.3% actual= 62.9%
60- 70%  n=75   avg= 64.0% actual= 65.3%
70- 80%  n=37   avg= 74.3% actual= 70.3%
80- 90%  n=19   avg= 84.0% actual= 84.2%

Draw · ECE 1.58%

 0- 10%  n=8    avg=  8.7% actual= 25.0%
10- 20%  n=92   avg= 16.6% actual= 21.7%
20- 30%  n=1176 avg= 26.6% actual= 25.4%

Away win · ECE 7.41%

 0- 10%  n=39   avg=  6.9% actual=  2.6%
10- 20%  n=152  avg= 16.1% actual= 13.8%
20- 30%  n=528  avg= 26.0% actual= 19.7%
30- 40%  n=376  avg= 33.7% actual= 44.7%
40- 50%  n=113  avg= 44.0% actual= 53.1%
50- 60%  n=42   avg= 54.2% actual= 52.4%
60- 70%  n=21   avg= 64.8% actual= 76.2%
70- 80%  n=4    avg= 75.8% actual= 50.0%
80- 90%  n=1    avg= 80.1% actual=100.0%

BTTS · ECE 2.40%

40- 50%  n=34   avg= 47.8% actual= 50.0%
50- 60%  n=1076 avg= 53.9% actual= 56.2%
60- 70%  n=156  avg= 63.6% actual= 65.4%
70- 80%  n=10   avg= 72.2% actual= 90.0%

Over 2.5 · ECE 7.60%

40- 50%  n=657  avg= 48.9% actual= 56.8%
50- 60%  n=390  avg= 53.5% actual= 63.8%
60- 70%  n=153  avg= 64.4% actual= 63.4%
70- 80%  n=66   avg= 73.4% actual= 69.7%
80- 90%  n=10   avg= 83.2% actual= 90.0%

Walk-forward - latest periods

Period	N	Model 1X2 LL	Baseline 1X2 LL	Improvement
2025-09	29	0.9490	1.0452	+9.20%
2025-10	28	0.8736	1.0587	+17.48%
2025-11	34	1.0856	1.0480	-3.58%
2025-12	27	0.9866	1.1128	+11.34%
2026-01	30	1.1591	1.1345	-2.17%
2026-02	38	1.0177	1.0729	+5.15%
2026-03	32	1.0199	1.0455	+2.44%
2026-04	27	0.8740	1.0770	+18.85%
2026-05	27	1.0036	1.1111	+9.67%
2026-08	33	1.0228	1.1116	+8.00%
2026-09	30	1.0074	1.1451	+12.03%
2026-10	9	1.0607	1.1531	+8.01%

Football is data.

NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.

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Heerenveen vsExcelsior

Match probabilities.

Most likely scorelines.

Strength and recent form.

Heerenveen

Excelsior

Historical matchup context.

Total goals profile.

How the model reached the estimate.

Heerenveen

Excelsior

Heerenveen

Excelsior

Historical model performance.

Home win · ECE 6.54%

Draw · ECE 1.58%

Away win · ECE 7.41%

BTTS · ECE 2.40%

Over 2.5 · ECE 7.60%

Football is data.

Heerenveen vs
Excelsior