Home win
55.48%
FC Utrecht
NED1 · Eredivisie · Match Analysis
FC Utrecht vs
Willem II
Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.
Model output
Match probabilities.
Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.
Draw
23.51%
X
Away win
21.01%
Willem II
Score model
Most likely scorelines.
Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.
Additional scorelines
2:25.97%
1:25.78%
3:05.46%
0:04.93%
3:24.11%
Team context
Strength and recent form.
Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.
Home
FC Utrecht
Elo1530.3
Overall attack1.53
Overall defense1.59
Home attack1.69
Home defense1.35
Form signal-0.862
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.32 / 2.32
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.47 / 2.07
Last 10 xGD-0.60
League statusSTABLE · from NED1 2025/26
Away
Willem II
Elo1393.7
Overall attack1.38
Overall defense2.41
Away attack1.43
Away defense3.00
Form signal-0.932
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.33 / 2.23
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.36 / 2.36
Last 10 xGD-1.00
League statusSTABLE · from NED1 2024/25
Elo difference
+136.6
Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.
Head-to-head
Historical matchup context.
H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.
Goal distribution
Total goals profile.
The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.
04.93%
19.77%
221.35%
322.10%
418.21%
512.00%
66.59%
7+5.06%
Technical detail
How the model reached the estimate.
Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.
League baseline and model setup
LeagueNED1
Loaded teams25
Loaded historical matches1287
Target season2026/27
Previous seasons in history4
Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27
League tierTier 1
Historical league matches1287
xG matches369 / 1287
Effective xG matches293.54
Observed home xG1.78
Observed away xG1.44
Model home xG baseline1.78
Model away xG baseline1.44
Total league xG baseline3.22
Home-advantage weight1.000
Model configdata/models/NED1.json
Team attack half-life240.0 days
Team defense half-life240.0 days
Attack strength weight1.000
Defense strength weight1.000
Venue prior matches0.00
DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles
Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)
Dixon-Coles decay0.000
Goal overdispersion0.000
Implied goal variance H / A2.07 / 1.23
Relative strengths and form diagnostics
FC Utrecht
Home attack strength0.965
Home defense weakness0.957
Base lambda home2.13
Attack form xGF level1.373
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)2.236
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.186
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.571
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal-0.238
Model defense signal-0.624
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.32 / 2.32 / -1.00
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.47 / 2.07 / -0.60
Willem II
Away attack strength0.998
Away defense weakness1.239
Base lambda away1.38
Attack form xGF level1.342
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)2.274
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.234
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.622
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal-0.269
Model defense signal-0.663
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 7
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.33 / 2.23 / -0.90
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.36 / 2.36 / -1.00
Historical data coverage
FC Utrecht
Total matches143
Home / away matches71 / 72
xG matches41 / 143
xG home / away coverage20 / 71 · 21 / 72
Effective total21.55
Effective attack / defense21.55 / 21.55
Effective home matches10.27
Effective home attack / defense10.27 / 10.27
Willem II
Total matches41
Home / away matches21 / 20
xG matches7 / 41
xG home / away coverage4 / 21 · 3 / 20
Effective total6.25
Effective attack / defense6.25 / 6.25
Effective away matches2.68
Effective away attack / defense2.68 / 2.68
Historical data coverage
27.76%
This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.
Validation
Historical model performance.
Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1267 historical matches.
Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.
Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.41%
1X2 log-loss vs baseline+3.63%
BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.48%
Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+0.86%
Full backtest metrics
Model
MAE total goals1.4011
Exact score log-loss3.1841
Total goals Brier0.8384
Total goals log-loss1.9586
1X2 Brier0.6224
1X2 log-loss1.0352
BTTS Brier0.2414
Over 1.5 Brier0.1405
Over 2.5 Brier0.2434
Over 3.5 Brier0.2450
League baseline
MAE total goals1.4076
Exact score log-loss3.2466
Total goals Brier0.8397
Total goals log-loss1.9666
1X2 Brier0.6498
1X2 log-loss1.0742
BTTS Brier0.2426
Over 1.5 Brier0.1411
Over 2.5 Brier0.2455
Over 3.5 Brier0.2473
Calibration diagnostics
Home win · ECE 10.96%
10- 20% n=19 avg= 16.7% actual= 21.1% 20- 30% n=50 avg= 25.1% actual= 16.0% 30- 40% n=328 avg= 37.6% actual= 22.9% 40- 50% n=732 avg= 42.7% actual= 53.4% 50- 60% n=66 avg= 54.8% actual= 50.0% 60- 70% n=49 avg= 65.2% actual= 59.2% 70- 80% n=21 avg= 74.5% actual= 71.4% 80- 90% n=2 avg= 80.3% actual=100.0%
Draw · ECE 3.07%
10- 20% n=49 avg= 17.8% actual= 24.5% 20- 30% n=1216 avg= 28.0% actual= 25.1% 30- 40% n=2 avg= 30.2% actual= 0.0%
Away win · ECE 11.16%
0- 10% n=19 avg= 8.3% actual= 0.0% 10- 20% n=73 avg= 15.1% actual= 16.4% 20- 30% n=622 avg= 27.7% actual= 18.0% 30- 40% n=456 avg= 32.2% actual= 47.4% 40- 50% n=53 avg= 44.1% actual= 39.6% 50- 60% n=32 avg= 54.6% actual= 75.0% 60- 70% n=11 avg= 63.9% actual= 63.6% 70- 80% n=1 avg= 70.3% actual=100.0%
BTTS · ECE 0.92%
40- 50% n=8 avg= 48.4% actual= 62.5% 50- 60% n=1029 avg= 55.3% actual= 55.0% 60- 70% n=213 avg= 64.0% actual= 66.2% 70- 80% n=17 avg= 71.9% actual= 88.2%
Over 2.5 · ECE 7.63%
40- 50% n=784 avg= 49.4% actual= 57.8% 50- 60% n=267 avg= 53.5% actual= 62.9% 60- 70% n=170 avg= 64.6% actual= 66.5% 70- 80% n=45 avg= 72.9% actual= 77.8% 80- 90% n=1 avg= 80.7% actual=100.0%
Walk-forward - latest periods
| Period | N | Model 1X2 LL | Baseline 1X2 LL | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08 | 34 | 0.9435 | 1.0019 | +5.83% |
| 2025-09 | 29 | 0.9687 | 1.0497 | +7.71% |
| 2025-10 | 28 | 0.9236 | 1.0610 | +12.95% |
| 2025-11 | 34 | 1.0679 | 1.0447 | -2.22% |
| 2025-12 | 27 | 1.0159 | 1.1117 | +8.62% |
| 2026-01 | 30 | 1.1277 | 1.1318 | +0.36% |
| 2026-02 | 38 | 1.0330 | 1.0726 | +3.69% |
| 2026-03 | 32 | 1.0069 | 1.0449 | +3.64% |
| 2026-04 | 27 | 0.9071 | 1.0747 | +15.59% |
| 2026-05 | 27 | 0.9953 | 1.1101 | +10.34% |
| 2026-08 | 33 | 1.0148 | 1.1182 | +9.25% |
| 2026-09 | 30 | 1.0027 | 1.1404 | +12.08% |
Football is data.
NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.