Home win
56.56%
Ajax
NED1 · Eredivisie · Match Analysis
Ajax vs
NEC
Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.
Model output
Match probabilities.
Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.
Draw
21.93%
X
Away win
21.51%
NEC
Score model
Most likely scorelines.
Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.
Additional scorelines
1:25.60%
3:05.09%
1:04.85%
3:24.82%
4:13.98%
Team context
Strength and recent form.
Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.
Home
Ajax
Elo1591.8
Overall attack1.94
Overall defense1.37
Home attack2.09
Home defense1.34
Form signal+1.517
Last 5 xGF / xGA2.93 / 1.30
Last 10 xGF / xGA2.64 / 1.33
Last 10 xGD+1.31
League statusSTABLE · from NED1 2025/26
Away
NEC
Elo1530.6
Overall attack1.84
Overall defense1.67
Away attack1.67
Away defense1.78
Form signal-0.979
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.22 / 2.46
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.67 / 2.17
Last 10 xGD-0.50
League statusSTABLE · from NED1 2025/26
Elo difference
+61.1
Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.
Head-to-head
Historical matchup context.
H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.
Goal distribution
Total goals profile.
The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.
03.66%
17.38%
218.38%
321.07%
419.22%
514.03%
68.53%
7+7.74%
Technical detail
How the model reached the estimate.
Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.
League baseline and model setup
LeagueNED1
Loaded teams25
Loaded historical matches1287
Target season2026/27
Previous seasons in history4
Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27
League tierTier 1
Historical league matches1287
xG matches369 / 1287
Effective xG matches293.82
Observed home xG1.78
Observed away xG1.44
Model home xG baseline1.78
Model away xG baseline1.44
Total league xG baseline3.22
Home-advantage weight1.000
Model configdata/models/NED1.json
Team attack half-life240.0 days
Team defense half-life240.0 days
Attack strength weight1.000
Defense strength weight1.000
Venue prior matches0.00
DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles
Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)
Dixon-Coles decay0.000
Goal overdispersion0.000
Implied goal variance H / A2.27 / 1.38
Relative strengths and form diagnostics
Ajax
Home attack strength1.123
Home defense weakness0.949
Base lambda home2.00
Attack form xGF level2.828
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.311
Opponent-adjusted attack residual+1.115
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.204
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal+1.216
Model defense signal+0.301
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD2.93 / 1.30 / +1.63
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD2.64 / 1.33 / +1.31
NEC
Away attack strength1.105
Away defense weakness1.000
Base lambda away1.52
Attack form xGF level1.380
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)2.359
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.302
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.819
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal-0.231
Model defense signal-0.747
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.22 / 2.46 / -1.24
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.67 / 2.17 / -0.50
Historical data coverage
Ajax
Total matches143
Home / away matches72 / 71
xG matches41 / 143
xG home / away coverage21 / 72 · 20 / 71
Effective total21.61
Effective attack / defense21.61 / 21.61
Effective home matches11.18
Effective home attack / defense11.18 / 11.18
NEC
Total matches143
Home / away matches72 / 71
xG matches41 / 143
xG home / away coverage21 / 72 · 20 / 71
Effective total21.63
Effective attack / defense21.63 / 21.63
Effective away matches10.25
Effective away attack / defense10.25 / 10.25
Historical data coverage
60.85%
This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.
Validation
Historical model performance.
Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1267 historical matches.
Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.
Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.41%
1X2 log-loss vs baseline+3.63%
BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.48%
Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+0.86%
Full backtest metrics
Model
MAE total goals1.4011
Exact score log-loss3.1841
Total goals Brier0.8384
Total goals log-loss1.9586
1X2 Brier0.6224
1X2 log-loss1.0352
BTTS Brier0.2414
Over 1.5 Brier0.1405
Over 2.5 Brier0.2434
Over 3.5 Brier0.2450
League baseline
MAE total goals1.4076
Exact score log-loss3.2466
Total goals Brier0.8397
Total goals log-loss1.9666
1X2 Brier0.6498
1X2 log-loss1.0742
BTTS Brier0.2426
Over 1.5 Brier0.1411
Over 2.5 Brier0.2455
Over 3.5 Brier0.2473
Calibration diagnostics
Home win · ECE 10.96%
10- 20% n=19 avg= 16.7% actual= 21.1% 20- 30% n=50 avg= 25.1% actual= 16.0% 30- 40% n=328 avg= 37.6% actual= 22.9% 40- 50% n=732 avg= 42.7% actual= 53.4% 50- 60% n=66 avg= 54.8% actual= 50.0% 60- 70% n=49 avg= 65.2% actual= 59.2% 70- 80% n=21 avg= 74.5% actual= 71.4% 80- 90% n=2 avg= 80.3% actual=100.0%
Draw · ECE 3.07%
10- 20% n=49 avg= 17.8% actual= 24.5% 20- 30% n=1216 avg= 28.0% actual= 25.1% 30- 40% n=2 avg= 30.2% actual= 0.0%
Away win · ECE 11.16%
0- 10% n=19 avg= 8.3% actual= 0.0% 10- 20% n=73 avg= 15.1% actual= 16.4% 20- 30% n=622 avg= 27.7% actual= 18.0% 30- 40% n=456 avg= 32.2% actual= 47.4% 40- 50% n=53 avg= 44.1% actual= 39.6% 50- 60% n=32 avg= 54.6% actual= 75.0% 60- 70% n=11 avg= 63.9% actual= 63.6% 70- 80% n=1 avg= 70.3% actual=100.0%
BTTS · ECE 0.92%
40- 50% n=8 avg= 48.4% actual= 62.5% 50- 60% n=1029 avg= 55.3% actual= 55.0% 60- 70% n=213 avg= 64.0% actual= 66.2% 70- 80% n=17 avg= 71.9% actual= 88.2%
Over 2.5 · ECE 7.63%
40- 50% n=784 avg= 49.4% actual= 57.8% 50- 60% n=267 avg= 53.5% actual= 62.9% 60- 70% n=170 avg= 64.6% actual= 66.5% 70- 80% n=45 avg= 72.9% actual= 77.8% 80- 90% n=1 avg= 80.7% actual=100.0%
Walk-forward - latest periods
| Period | N | Model 1X2 LL | Baseline 1X2 LL | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08 | 34 | 0.9435 | 1.0019 | +5.83% |
| 2025-09 | 29 | 0.9687 | 1.0497 | +7.71% |
| 2025-10 | 28 | 0.9236 | 1.0610 | +12.95% |
| 2025-11 | 34 | 1.0679 | 1.0447 | -2.22% |
| 2025-12 | 27 | 1.0159 | 1.1117 | +8.62% |
| 2026-01 | 30 | 1.1277 | 1.1318 | +0.36% |
| 2026-02 | 38 | 1.0330 | 1.0726 | +3.69% |
| 2026-03 | 32 | 1.0069 | 1.0449 | +3.64% |
| 2026-04 | 27 | 0.9071 | 1.0747 | +15.59% |
| 2026-05 | 27 | 0.9953 | 1.1101 | +10.34% |
| 2026-08 | 33 | 1.0148 | 1.1182 | +9.25% |
| 2026-09 | 30 | 1.0027 | 1.1404 | +12.08% |
Football is data.
NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.