ITA1 · Serie A · Match Analysis

Venezia vs
Napoli

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date17 Oct 2026

Target season2026/27

History window5 seasons

League tierTier 1

Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win

16.43%

Venezia

Draw

23.15%

Away win

60.42%

Napoli

Expected goals 0.96 - 2.00 2.96 total

BTTS 54.41% Both teams to score

Over 1.5 80.50% 2+ total goals

Over 2.5 56.75% 3+ total goals

Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#11:111.00%

#20:210.35%

#31:29.95%

#40:19.33%

#50:36.89%

Additional scorelines

1:36.63%

0:06.22%

2:14.79%

2:24.78%

1:03.95%

Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Venezia

Elo1401.8

Overall attack1.31

Overall defense1.81

Home attack1.29

Home defense1.73

Form signal-0.373

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.70 / 2.04

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.59 / 2.03

Last 10 xGD-0.43

League statusSTABLE · from ITA1 2024/25

Away

Napoli

Elo1603.6

Overall attack1.44

Overall defense1.01

Away attack1.35

Away defense1.07

Form signal+0.614

Last 5 xGF / xGA2.01 / 1.36

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.76 / 1.22

Last 10 xGD+0.53

League statusSTABLE · from ITA1 2025/26

Elo difference

-201.8

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches2Effective: 0.62

Average goals0.46Venezia 0.00 · Napoli 0.46

H2H 3+ goals0.00%Historical context

H2H BTTS0.00%Model BTTS: 54.41%

H2H 2+ goals0.00%

H2H 3+ goals0.00%

H2H 4+ goals0.00%

H2H BTTS0.00%

Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

06.22%

113.28%

223.75%

322.40%

416.57%

59.80%

64.83%

7+3.15%

0-1 goals19.50%Low total

2+ goals80.50%Over 1.5

3+ goals56.75%Over 2.5

4+ goals34.35%Over 3.5

Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup

LeagueITA1

Loaded teams27

Loaded historical matches1580

Target season2026/27

Previous seasons in history4

Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27

League tierTier 1

Historical league matches1580

xG matches1580 / 1580

Effective xG matches799.14

Observed home xG1.37

Observed away xG1.17

Model home xG baseline1.36

Model away xG baseline1.18

Total league xG baseline2.54

Home-advantage weight0.875

Model configdata/models/ITA1.json

Team attack half-life240.0 days

Team defense half-life240.0 days

Attack strength weight1.050

Defense strength weight1.081

Venue prior matches3.31

DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles

Dixon-Coles rho-0.106 (effective -0.104)

Dixon-Coles decay0.034

Goal overdispersion0.000

Implied goal variance H / A0.96 / 2.00

Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Venezia

Home attack strength0.980

Home defense weakness1.276

Base lambda home1.09

Attack form xGF level1.663

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)2.037

Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.442

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.713

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal+0.392

Model defense signal-0.765

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.70 / 2.04 / -0.34

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.59 / 2.03 / -0.43

Napoli

Away attack strength1.118

Away defense weakness0.830

Base lambda away1.73

Attack form xGF level1.923

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.310

Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.605

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.083

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal+0.652

Model defense signal-0.038

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD2.01 / 1.36 / +0.66

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.76 / 1.22 / +0.53

Historical data coverage

Venezia

Total matches44

Home / away matches22 / 22

xG matches44 / 44

xG home / away coverage22 / 22 · 22 / 22

Effective total11.44

Effective attack / defense11.44 / 11.44

Effective home matches5.76

Effective home attack / defense5.76 / 5.76

Napoli

Total matches158

Home / away matches79 / 79

xG matches158 / 158

xG home / away coverage79 / 79 · 79 / 79

Effective total31.68

Effective attack / defense31.68 / 31.68

Effective away matches15.56

Effective away attack / defense15.56 / 15.56

Historical data coverage

35.32%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1560 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.63%

1X2 log-loss vs baseline+9.07%

BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.37%

Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+1.34%

Full backtest metrics

Model

MAE total goals1.2171

Exact score log-loss2.7695

Total goals Brier0.8119

Total goals log-loss1.8027

1X2 Brier0.5899

1X2 log-loss0.9879

BTTS Brier0.2496

Over 1.5 Brier0.1909

Over 2.5 Brier0.2463

Over 3.5 Brier0.1841

League baseline

MAE total goals1.2442

Exact score log-loss2.8998

Total goals Brier0.8136

Total goals log-loss1.8143

1X2 Brier0.6583

1X2 log-loss1.0864

BTTS Brier0.2505

Over 1.5 Brier0.1925

Over 2.5 Brier0.2497

Over 3.5 Brier0.1866

Calibration diagnostics

Home win · ECE 2.51%

 0- 10%  n=22   avg=  8.3% actual=  9.1%
10- 20%  n=177  avg= 15.9% actual= 15.8%
20- 30%  n=282  avg= 25.2% actual= 25.5%
30- 40%  n=333  avg= 35.2% actual= 33.6%
40- 50%  n=297  avg= 44.7% actual= 48.1%
50- 60%  n=218  avg= 54.8% actual= 51.8%
60- 70%  n=161  avg= 64.5% actual= 70.8%
70- 80%  n=59   avg= 73.8% actual= 79.7%
80- 90%  n=11   avg= 83.1% actual= 63.6%

Draw · ECE 1.65%

 0- 10%  n=1    avg=  8.3% actual=  0.0%
10- 20%  n=94   avg= 17.1% actual= 21.3%
20- 30%  n=1059 avg= 26.5% actual= 25.3%
30- 40%  n=406  avg= 31.5% actual= 33.7%

Away win · ECE 3.79%

 0- 10%  n=73   avg=  7.7% actual=  6.8%
10- 20%  n=308  avg= 15.0% actual= 12.3%
20- 30%  n=368  avg= 25.0% actual= 22.0%
30- 40%  n=343  avg= 34.6% actual= 30.6%
40- 50%  n=208  avg= 44.6% actual= 53.4%
50- 60%  n=160  avg= 54.3% actual= 53.8%
60- 70%  n=74   avg= 63.6% actual= 70.3%
70- 80%  n=25   avg= 73.6% actual= 76.0%
80- 90%  n=1    avg= 83.8% actual=  0.0%

BTTS · ECE 1.92%

30- 40%  n=64   avg= 37.9% actual= 45.3%
40- 50%  n=823  avg= 45.9% actual= 48.4%
50- 60%  n=637  avg= 53.6% actual= 53.1%
60- 70%  n=36   avg= 61.8% actual= 58.3%

Over 2.5 · ECE 2.49%

20- 30%  n=17   avg= 28.1% actual= 23.5%
30- 40%  n=300  avg= 36.9% actual= 40.0%
40- 50%  n=705  avg= 44.9% actual= 47.1%
50- 60%  n=455  avg= 53.9% actual= 51.6%
60- 70%  n=78   avg= 63.4% actual= 60.3%
70- 80%  n=5    avg= 71.5% actual= 80.0%

Walk-forward - latest periods

Period	N	Model 1X2 LL	Baseline 1X2 LL	Improvement
2025-09	30	0.9825	1.0882	+9.71%
2025-10	40	1.0491	1.1060	+5.14%
2025-11	39	1.0141	1.0922	+7.15%
2025-12	37	1.0639	1.0763	+1.15%
2026-01	58	0.9365	1.0986	+14.75%
2026-02	40	0.9507	1.0931	+13.03%
2026-03	36	0.9894	1.0574	+6.43%
2026-04	40	1.0026	1.0882	+7.87%
2026-05	40	1.1007	1.1080	+0.66%
2026-08	20	0.7777	1.0805	+28.03%
2026-09	30	1.0237	1.0700	+4.33%
2026-10	10	0.8909	1.0354	+13.96%

Football is data.

NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.

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Venezia vsNapoli

Match probabilities.

Most likely scorelines.

Strength and recent form.

Venezia

Napoli

Historical matchup context.

Total goals profile.

How the model reached the estimate.

Venezia

Napoli

Venezia

Napoli

Historical model performance.

Home win · ECE 2.51%

Draw · ECE 1.65%

Away win · ECE 3.79%

BTTS · ECE 1.92%

Over 2.5 · ECE 2.49%

Football is data.

Venezia vs
Napoli