ITA1 · Serie A · Match Analysis

Lecce vs
Bologna

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date11 Oct 2026

Target season2026/27

History window5 seasons

League tierTier 1

Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win

20.68%

Lecce

Draw

31.65%

Away win

47.68%

Bologna

Expected goals 0.79 – 1.33 2.12 total

BTTS 41.86% Both teams to score

Over 1.5 64.19% 2+ total goals

Over 2.5 35.58% 3+ total goals

Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#10:114.29%

#21:114.27%

#30:013.64%

#40:210.58%

#51:28.38%

Additional scorelines

1:07.87%

2:15.00%

0:34.68%

2:03.77%

1:33.71%

Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Lecce

Elo1453.5

Overall attack0.91

Overall defense1.64

Home attack0.99

Home defense1.52

Form signal-1.329

Last 5 xGF / xGA0.88 / 2.30

Last 10 xGF / xGA0.94 / 2.11

Last 10 xGD-1.17

League statusSTABLE · from ITA1 2025/26

Away

Bologna

Elo1504.6

Overall attack1.19

Overall defense1.11

Away attack1.00

Away defense1.09

Form signal+0.028

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.09 / 1.02

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.05 / 1.09

Last 10 xGD-0.04

League statusSTABLE · from ITA1 2025/26

Elo difference

-51.1

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches8Effective: 2.23

Average goals2.31Lecce 0.59 · Bologna 1.72

H2H 3+ goals33.35%Historical context

H2H BTTS32.47%Model BTTS: 41.86%

H2H 2+ goals74.18%

H2H 3+ goals33.35%

H2H 4+ goals33.35%

H2H BTTS32.47%

Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

013.64%

122.16%

228.61%

319.06%

410.10%

54.28%

61.51%

7+0.62%

0–1 goals35.81%Low total

2+ goals64.19%Over 1.5

3+ goals35.58%Over 2.5

4+ goals16.52%Over 3.5

Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup

LeagueITA1

Loaded teams27

Loaded historical matches1570

Target season2026/27

Previous seasons in history4

Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27

League tierTier 1

Historical league matches1570

xG matches1570 / 1570

Effective xG matches793.77

Observed home xG1.37

Observed away xG1.17

Model home xG baseline1.37

Model away xG baseline1.17

Total league xG baseline2.53

Home-advantage weight1.000

Model configdata/models/ITA1.json

Team attack half-life240.0 days

Team defense half-life240.0 days

Attack strength weight1.000

Defense strength weight1.000

Venue prior matches0.00

DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles

Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)

Dixon-Coles decay0.000

Goal overdispersion0.000

Implied goal variance H / A0.79 / 1.33

Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Lecce

Home attack strength0.793

Home defense weakness1.226

Base lambda home0.92

Attack form xGF level0.902

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)2.231

Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.330

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.925

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal-0.366

Model defense signal-0.964

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD0.88 / 2.30 / -1.41

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD0.94 / 2.11 / -1.17

Bologna

Away attack strength0.895

Away defense weakness0.846

Base lambda away1.28

Attack form xGF level1.075

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.047

Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.208

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.207

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal-0.192

Model defense signal+0.220

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.09 / 1.02 / +0.07

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.05 / 1.09 / -0.04

Historical data coverage

Lecce

Total matches157

Home / away matches78 / 79

xG matches157 / 157

xG home / away coverage78 / 78 · 79 / 79

Effective total31.24

Effective attack / defense31.24 / 31.24

Effective home matches15.05

Effective home attack / defense15.05 / 15.05

Bologna

Total matches157

Home / away matches79 / 78

xG matches157 / 157

xG home / away coverage79 / 79 · 78 / 78

Effective total31.33

Effective attack / defense31.33 / 31.33

Effective away matches15.11

Effective away attack / defense15.11 / 15.11

Historical data coverage

95.99%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1550 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.67%

1X2 log-loss vs baseline+8.58%

BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.50%

Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+1.36%

Full backtest metrics

Model

MAE total goals1.2186

Exact score log-loss2.7775

Total goals Brier0.8123

Total goals log-loss1.8045

1X2 Brier0.5943

1X2 log-loss0.9942

BTTS Brier0.2495

Over 1.5 Brier0.1911

Over 2.5 Brier0.2462

Over 3.5 Brier0.1842

League baseline

MAE total goals1.2465

Exact score log-loss2.9028

Total goals Brier0.8142

Total goals log-loss1.8167

1X2 Brier0.6590

1X2 log-loss1.0874

BTTS Brier0.2507

Over 1.5 Brier0.1929

Over 2.5 Brier0.2496

Over 3.5 Brier0.1867

Calibration diagnostics

Home win · ECE 3.20%

 0- 10%  n=6    avg=  8.4% actual= 33.3%
10- 20%  n=131  avg= 16.3% actual= 11.5%
20- 30%  n=287  avg= 25.2% actual= 24.4%
30- 40%  n=370  avg= 35.1% actual= 32.2%
40- 50%  n=332  avg= 44.6% actual= 47.0%
50- 60%  n=244  avg= 54.7% actual= 57.0%
60- 70%  n=141  avg= 64.2% actual= 70.9%
70- 80%  n=36   avg= 73.2% actual= 83.3%
80- 90%  n=3    avg= 82.8% actual= 33.3%

Draw · ECE 1.11%

10- 20%  n=45   avg= 17.9% actual= 17.8%
20- 30%  n=951  avg= 26.9% actual= 25.1%
30- 40%  n=554  avg= 31.7% actual= 31.6%

Away win · ECE 4.02%

 0- 10%  n=46   avg=  8.2% actual=  2.2%
10- 20%  n=319  avg= 15.4% actual= 11.9%
20- 30%  n=417  avg= 25.1% actual= 22.8%
30- 40%  n=370  avg= 34.6% actual= 34.1%
40- 50%  n=227  avg= 45.0% actual= 56.4%
50- 60%  n=123  avg= 54.6% actual= 57.7%
60- 70%  n=43   avg= 64.2% actual= 79.1%
70- 80%  n=5    avg= 73.8% actual= 60.0%

BTTS · ECE 1.86%

30- 40%  n=43   avg= 38.3% actual= 44.2%
40- 50%  n=766  avg= 46.2% actual= 48.2%
50- 60%  n=697  avg= 53.8% actual= 52.4%
60- 70%  n=44   avg= 62.1% actual= 59.1%

Over 2.5 · ECE 2.60%

20- 30%  n=12   avg= 28.2% actual= 25.0%
30- 40%  n=319  avg= 37.1% actual= 40.4%
40- 50%  n=722  avg= 45.0% actual= 47.2%
50- 60%  n=437  avg= 53.8% actual= 51.0%
60- 70%  n=59   avg= 63.1% actual= 64.4%
70- 80%  n=1    avg= 70.2% actual=100.0%

Walk-forward - latest periods

Period	N	Model 1X2 LL	Baseline 1X2 LL	Improvement
2025-08	20	0.9795	1.0890	+10.05%
2025-09	30	0.9876	1.0892	+9.33%
2025-10	40	1.0472	1.1022	+4.99%
2025-11	39	1.0238	1.0935	+6.37%
2025-12	37	1.0663	1.0804	+1.31%
2026-01	58	0.9498	1.0988	+13.56%
2026-02	40	0.9627	1.0955	+12.12%
2026-03	36	0.9898	1.0612	+6.73%
2026-04	40	1.0062	1.0889	+7.60%
2026-05	40	1.1031	1.1105	+0.67%
2026-08	20	0.8152	1.0882	+25.09%
2026-09	30	1.0258	1.0708	+4.20%

Football is data.

NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.

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Lecce vsBologna

Match probabilities.

Most likely scorelines.

Strength and recent form.

Lecce

Bologna

Historical matchup context.

Total goals profile.

How the model reached the estimate.

Lecce

Bologna

Lecce

Bologna

Historical model performance.

Home win · ECE 3.20%

Draw · ECE 1.11%

Away win · ECE 4.02%

BTTS · ECE 1.86%

Over 2.5 · ECE 2.60%

Football is data.

Lecce vs
Bologna