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ITA1 · Serie A · Match Analysis

Fiorentina vs
Napoli

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date20 Sep 2026
Target season2026/27
History window5 seasons
League tierTier 1
Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win
47.34%
Fiorentina
Draw
25.17%
X
Away win
27.49%
Napoli
Expected goals 1.86 – 1.39 3.25 total
BTTS 64.73% Both teams to score
Over 1.5 84.85% 2+ total goals
Over 2.5 63.08% 3+ total goals
Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#11:111.32%
#22:19.32%
#31:26.96%
#42:06.71%
#52:26.48%
Additional scorelines
1:05.90%
3:15.79%
0:05.17%
3:04.16%
0:14.08%
Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Fiorentina

Elo1494.1
Overall attack1.63
Overall defense1.29
Home attack1.90
Home defense0.84
Form signal+0.627
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.74 / 1.12
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.74 / 1.12
Last 10 xGD+0.63
League statusSTABLE · from ITA1 2025/26
Away

Napoli

Elo1599.4
Overall attack1.45
Overall defense1.47
Away attack1.62
Away defense2.30
Form signal+0.004
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.49 / 1.49
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.49 / 1.49
Last 10 xGD+0.00
League statusSTABLE · from ITA1 2025/26
Elo difference
-105.3

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches8Effective: 2.27
Average goals3.20Fiorentina 1.00 · Napoli 2.20
H2H 3+ goals93.12%Historical context
H2H BTTS79.66%Model BTTS: 64.73%
H2H 2+ goals93.12%
H2H 3+ goals93.12%
H2H 4+ goals36.09%
H2H BTTS79.66%
Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

05.17%
19.98%
221.76%
322.18%
418.03%
511.73%
66.36%
7+4.78%
0–1 goals15.15%Low total
2+ goals84.85%Over 1.5
3+ goals63.08%Over 2.5
4+ goals40.90%Over 3.5
Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup
LeagueITA1
Loaded teams27
Loaded historical matches1560
Target season2026/27
Previous seasons in history4
Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27
League tierTier 1
Historical league matches1560
xG matches40 / 1560
Effective xG matches39.32
Observed home xG1.55
Observed away xG1.43
Model home xG baseline1.55
Model away xG baseline1.43
Total league xG baseline2.98
Home-advantage weight1.000
Model configdata/models/ITA1.json
Team attack half-life240.0 days
Team defense half-life240.0 days
Attack strength weight1.000
Defense strength weight1.000
Venue prior matches0.00
DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles
Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)
Dixon-Coles decay0.000
Goal overdispersion0.000
Implied goal variance H / A1.86 / 1.39
Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Fiorentina

Home attack strength1.061
Home defense weakness0.887
Base lambda home1.86
Attack form xGF level1.744
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.117
Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.243
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.363
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal+0.254
Model defense signal+0.373
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 104 / 4
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.74 / 1.12 / +0.63
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.74 / 1.12 / +0.63

Napoli

Away attack strength1.037
Away defense weakness1.131
Base lambda away1.31
Attack form xGF level1.492
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.488
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.022
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.021
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal+0.002
Model defense signal+0.001
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 104 / 4
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.49 / 1.49 / +0.00
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.49 / 1.49 / +0.00
Historical data coverage

Fiorentina

Total matches156
Home / away matches78 / 78
xG matches4 / 156
xG home / away coverage2 / 78 · 2 / 78
Effective total3.80
Effective attack / defense3.80 / 3.80
Effective home matches1.90
Effective home attack / defense1.90 / 1.90

Napoli

Total matches156
Home / away matches78 / 78
xG matches4 / 156
xG home / away coverage2 / 78 · 2 / 78
Effective total3.80
Effective attack / defense3.80 / 3.80
Effective away matches1.88
Effective away attack / defense1.88 / 1.88
Historical data coverage
3.86%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1540 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.05%
1X2 log-loss vs baseline+1.81%
BTTS Brier vs baseline-0.07%
Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+0.01%
Full backtest metrics
Model
MAE total goals1.2539
Exact score log-loss2.8802
Total goals Brier0.8149
Total goals log-loss1.8195
1X2 Brier0.6445
1X2 log-loss1.0666
BTTS Brier0.2523
Over 1.5 Brier0.1938
Over 2.5 Brier0.2495
Over 3.5 Brier0.1873
League baseline
MAE total goals1.2543
Exact score log-loss2.9055
Total goals Brier0.8149
Total goals log-loss1.8204
1X2 Brier0.6583
1X2 log-loss1.0863
BTTS Brier0.2522
Over 1.5 Brier0.1939
Over 2.5 Brier0.2495
Over 3.5 Brier0.1875
Calibration diagnostics
Home win · ECE 9.17%
10- 20%  n=1    avg= 18.3% actual=  0.0%
20- 30%  n=7    avg= 25.5% actual= 71.4%
30- 40%  n=432  avg= 38.4% actual= 21.3%
40- 50%  n=1097 avg= 42.3% actual= 48.1%
50- 60%  n=3    avg= 52.5% actual= 66.7%
Draw · ECE 1.78%
20- 30%  n=1533 avg= 29.0% actual= 27.3%
30- 40%  n=7    avg= 31.2% actual= 14.3%
Away win · ECE 13.48%
20- 30%  n=869  avg= 28.3% actual= 18.4%
30- 40%  n=662  avg= 31.6% actual= 49.8%
40- 50%  n=6    avg= 45.5% actual= 33.3%
50- 60%  n=3    avg= 53.6% actual= 66.7%
BTTS · ECE 4.90%
40- 50%  n=5    avg= 48.4% actual= 60.0%
50- 60%  n=1522 avg= 55.0% actual= 50.1%
60- 70%  n=13   avg= 63.0% actual= 61.5%
Over 2.5 · ECE 2.03%
30- 40%  n=3    avg= 39.5% actual= 33.3%
40- 50%  n=1382 avg= 49.3% actual= 47.3%
50- 60%  n=148  avg= 51.0% actual= 49.3%
60- 70%  n=7    avg= 63.0% actual= 57.1%
Walk-forward - latest periods
Period N Model 1X2 LL Baseline 1X2 LL Improvement
2025-08 20 1.0604 1.0893 +2.65%
2025-09 30 1.0695 1.0886 +1.75%
2025-10 40 1.0919 1.1084 +1.49%
2025-11 39 1.0768 1.0934 +1.52%
2025-12 37 1.0641 1.0757 +1.07%
2026-01 58 1.0680 1.1016 +3.05%
2026-02 40 1.0634 1.0959 +2.97%
2026-03 36 1.0330 1.0535 +1.94%
2026-04 40 1.0600 1.0887 +2.63%
2026-05 40 1.0895 1.1124 +2.06%
2026-08 20 1.0284 1.0765 +4.47%
2026-09 20 1.0778 1.0812 +0.31%

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