Home win
45.50%
SV Elversberg
GER1 · Bundesliga · Match Analysis
SV Elversberg vs
FC Augsburg
Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.
Model output
Match probabilities.
Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.
Draw
26.57%
X
Away win
27.93%
FC Augsburg
Score model
Most likely scorelines.
Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.
Additional scorelines
0:06.47%
2:26.00%
0:15.29%
3:15.25%
0:24.24%
Team context
Strength and recent form.
Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.
Home
SV Elversberg
Elo1505.2
Overall attack1.14
Overall defense1.82
Home attack1.10
Home defense2.37
Form signal-0.705
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.01 / 1.72
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.01 / 1.72
Last 10 xGD-0.70
League statusNEW
Away
FC Augsburg
Elo1509.3
Overall attack1.35
Overall defense1.98
Away attack1.22
Away defense2.14
Form signal-1.304
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.81 / 3.20
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.80 / 2.95
Last 10 xGD-1.15
League statusSTABLE · from GER1 2025/26
Elo difference
-4.2
Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.
Head-to-head
Historical matchup context.
H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.
Goal distribution
Total goals profile.
The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.
06.47%
112.63%
223.98%
322.40%
416.61%
59.85%
64.87%
7+3.18%
Technical detail
How the model reached the estimate.
Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.
League baseline and model setup
LeagueGER1
Loaded teams25
Loaded historical matches1269
Target season2026/27
Previous seasons in history4
Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27
League tierTier 1
Historical league matches1269
xG matches1267 / 1269
Effective xG matches638.73
Observed home xG1.74
Observed away xG1.36
Model home xG baseline1.70
Model away xG baseline1.39
Total league xG baseline3.09
Home-advantage weight0.831
Model configdata/models/GER1.json
Team attack half-life365.0 days
Team defense half-life240.0 days
Attack strength weight1.097
Defense strength weight0.981
Venue prior matches6.50
DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles
Dixon-Coles rho-0.120 (effective -0.119)
Dixon-Coles decay0.016
Goal overdispersion0.000
Implied goal variance H / A1.68 / 1.28
Relative strengths and form diagnostics
SV Elversberg
Home attack strength0.900
Home defense weakness1.129
Base lambda home1.78
Attack form xGF level1.014
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.719
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.455
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.103
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal-0.532
Model defense signal-0.173
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 5
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.01 / 1.72 / -0.70
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.01 / 1.72 / -0.70
FC Augsburg
Away attack strength0.918
Away defense weakness1.178
Base lambda away1.42
Attack form xGF level1.808
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)3.113
Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.254
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-1.581
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal+0.262
Model defense signal-1.500
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.81 / 3.20 / -1.39
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.80 / 2.95 / -1.15
Historical data coverage
SV Elversberg
Total matches5
Home / away matches2 / 3
xG matches5 / 5
xG home / away coverage2 / 2 · 3 / 3
Effective total4.57
Effective attack / defense4.71 / 4.57
Effective home matches1.77
Effective home attack / defense1.85 / 1.77
FC Augsburg
Total matches141
Home / away matches71 / 70
xG matches141 / 141
xG home / away coverage71 / 71 · 70 / 70
Effective total27.97
Effective attack / defense42.47 / 27.97
Effective away matches13.66
Effective away attack / defense20.91 / 13.66
Historical data coverage
26.35%
This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.
Validation
Historical model performance.
Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1249 historical matches.
Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.
Total goals log-loss vs baseline+1.19%
1X2 log-loss vs baseline+7.92%
BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.78%
Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+2.40%
Full backtest metrics
Model
MAE total goals1.3963
Exact score log-loss3.1021
Total goals Brier0.8384
Total goals log-loss1.9562
1X2 Brier0.5886
1X2 log-loss0.9889
BTTS Brier0.2385
Over 1.5 Brier0.1358
Over 2.5 Brier0.2321
Over 3.5 Brier0.2377
League baseline
MAE total goals1.4093
Exact score log-loss3.2441
Total goals Brier0.8429
Total goals log-loss1.9798
1X2 Brier0.6498
1X2 log-loss1.0740
BTTS Brier0.2404
Over 1.5 Brier0.1375
Over 2.5 Brier0.2378
Over 3.5 Brier0.2474
Calibration diagnostics
Home win · ECE 3.36%
0- 10% n=25 avg= 7.5% actual= 8.0% 10- 20% n=80 avg= 16.0% actual= 17.5% 20- 30% n=183 avg= 25.9% actual= 21.3% 30- 40% n=279 avg= 35.3% actual= 38.4% 40- 50% n=277 avg= 44.9% actual= 43.0% 50- 60% n=182 avg= 54.3% actual= 53.8% 60- 70% n=125 avg= 64.4% actual= 73.6% 70- 80% n=64 avg= 74.4% actual= 73.4% 80- 90% n=30 avg= 84.4% actual= 93.3% 90-100% n=4 avg= 91.5% actual= 25.0%
Draw · ECE 1.45%
0- 10% n=14 avg= 8.1% actual= 14.3% 10- 20% n=158 avg= 16.1% actual= 17.7% 20- 30% n=1008 avg= 25.9% actual= 26.5% 30- 40% n=69 avg= 31.0% actual= 18.8%
Away win · ECE 2.01%
0- 10% n=74 avg= 6.6% actual= 6.8% 10- 20% n=214 avg= 15.4% actual= 12.1% 20- 30% n=338 avg= 25.0% actual= 26.0% 30- 40% n=281 avg= 34.7% actual= 35.6% 40- 50% n=178 avg= 44.2% actual= 41.6% 50- 60% n=86 avg= 54.4% actual= 57.0% 60- 70% n=47 avg= 64.1% actual= 61.7% 70- 80% n=22 avg= 74.8% actual= 59.1% 80- 90% n=9 avg= 82.6% actual= 88.9%
BTTS · ECE 1.91%
40- 50% n=85 avg= 47.7% actual= 49.4% 50- 60% n=766 avg= 55.8% actual= 56.3% 60- 70% n=378 avg= 63.4% actual= 68.3% 70- 80% n=20 avg= 71.0% actual= 70.0%
Over 2.5 · ECE 4.25%
30- 40% n=21 avg= 37.7% actual= 42.9% 40- 50% n=215 avg= 46.4% actual= 50.7% 50- 60% n=543 avg= 55.2% actual= 60.4% 60- 70% n=343 avg= 64.3% actual= 67.3% 70- 80% n=107 avg= 73.7% actual= 76.6% 80- 90% n=20 avg= 83.4% actual= 80.0%
Walk-forward - latest periods
| Period | N | Model 1X2 LL | Baseline 1X2 LL | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09 | 27 | 0.8925 | 1.0895 | +18.08% |
| 2025-10 | 28 | 0.8254 | 1.0409 | +20.70% |
| 2025-11 | 35 | 0.9936 | 1.0578 | +6.06% |
| 2025-12 | 27 | 1.0363 | 1.0708 | +3.22% |
| 2026-01 | 42 | 1.0133 | 1.0827 | +6.41% |
| 2026-02 | 35 | 0.9249 | 1.0164 | +9.00% |
| 2026-03 | 31 | 0.8909 | 1.0953 | +18.66% |
| 2026-04 | 36 | 0.9567 | 1.1201 | +14.58% |
| 2026-05 | 27 | 1.1104 | 1.0679 | -3.97% |
| 2026-08 | 9 | 0.8221 | 0.9155 | +10.20% |
| 2026-09 | 27 | 0.9516 | 1.0644 | +10.61% |
| 2026-10 | 9 | 1.1236 | 1.0674 | -5.26% |
Football is data.
NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.