FRA1 · Ligue 1 · Match Analysis

Troyes vs
Lens

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date17 Oct 2026

Target season2026/27

History window5 seasons

League tierTier 1

Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win

24.65%

Troyes

Draw

22.91%

Away win

52.44%

Lens

Expected goals 1.34 - 2.01 3.35 total

BTTS 64.58% Both teams to score

Over 1.5 85.42% 2+ total goals

Over 2.5 65.07% 3+ total goals

Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#11:110.11%

#21:29.50%

#30:27.10%

#40:16.38%

#51:36.38%

Additional scorelines

2:26.36%

2:16.32%

0:34.77%

2:34.27%

0:04.18%

Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Troyes

Elo1428.5

Overall attack1.31

Overall defense1.94

Home attack1.39

Home defense1.99

Form signal-0.516

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.40 / 1.82

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.13 / 1.83

Last 10 xGD-0.70

League statusSTABLE · from FRA1 2022/23

Away

Lens

Elo1566.1

Overall attack1.91

Overall defense1.38

Away attack1.65

Away defense1.55

Form signal-0.028

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.55 / 1.68

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.80 / 1.64

Last 10 xGD+0.16

League statusSTABLE · from FRA1 2025/26

Elo difference

-137.6

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches2Effective: 0.13

Average goals1.57Troyes 0.57 · Lens 1.00

H2H 3+ goals0.00%Historical context

H2H BTTS56.65%Model BTTS: 64.58%

H2H 2+ goals56.65%

H2H 3+ goals0.00%

H2H 4+ goals0.00%

H2H BTTS56.65%

Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

04.18%

110.40%

220.35%

321.98%

418.41%

512.34%

66.89%

7+5.44%

0-1 goals14.58%Low total

2+ goals85.42%Over 1.5

3+ goals65.07%Over 2.5

4+ goals43.09%Over 3.5

Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup

LeagueFRA1

Loaded teams25

Loaded historical matches1352

Target season2026/27

Previous seasons in history4

Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27

League tierTier 1

Historical league matches1352

xG matches1351 / 1352

Effective xG matches665.47

Observed home xG1.62

Observed away xG1.31

Model home xG baseline1.62

Model away xG baseline1.30

Total league xG baseline2.92

Home-advantage weight1.016

Model configdata/models/FRA1.json

Team attack half-life240.0 days

Team defense half-life365.0 days

Attack strength weight0.881

Defense strength weight0.856

Venue prior matches4.81

DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles

Dixon-Coles rho-0.073 (effective -0.071)

Dixon-Coles decay0.025

Goal overdispersion0.000

Implied goal variance H / A1.34 / 2.01

Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Troyes

Home attack strength0.939

Home defense weakness1.247

Base lambda home1.48

Attack form xGF level1.305

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.821

Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.114

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.316

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal-0.157

Model defense signal-0.359

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.40 / 1.82 / -0.42

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.13 / 1.83 / -0.70

Lens

Away attack strength1.218

Away defense weakness0.964

Base lambda away1.87

Attack form xGF level1.635

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.664

Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.172

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.203

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal+0.174

Model defense signal-0.202

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.55 / 1.68 / -0.13

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.80 / 1.64 / +0.16

Historical data coverage

Troyes

Total matches44

Home / away matches22 / 22

xG matches44 / 44

xG home / away coverage22 / 22 · 22 / 22

Effective total6.15

Effective attack / defense6.15 / 8.42

Effective home matches3.09

Effective home attack / defense3.09 / 4.23

Lens

Total matches146

Home / away matches73 / 73

xG matches146 / 146

xG home / away coverage73 / 73 · 73 / 73

Effective total28.65

Effective attack / defense28.65 / 43.40

Effective away matches14.30

Effective away attack / defense14.30 / 21.66

Historical data coverage

27.96%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1332 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.13%

1X2 log-loss vs baseline+6.78%

BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.15%

Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+0.67%

Full backtest metrics

Model

MAE total goals1.3466

Exact score log-loss2.9655

Total goals Brier0.8292

Total goals log-loss1.9099

1X2 Brier0.5970

1X2 log-loss0.9986

BTTS Brier0.2482

Over 1.5 Brier0.1771

Over 2.5 Brier0.2461

Over 3.5 Brier0.2140

League baseline

MAE total goals1.3378

Exact score log-loss3.0550

Total goals Brier0.8301

Total goals log-loss1.9123

1X2 Brier0.6483

1X2 log-loss1.0711

BTTS Brier0.2486

Over 1.5 Brier0.1771

Over 2.5 Brier0.2478

Over 3.5 Brier0.2150

Calibration diagnostics

Home win · ECE 3.26%

 0- 10%  n=6    avg=  7.7% actual=  0.0%
10- 20%  n=58   avg= 16.5% actual= 12.1%
20- 30%  n=236  avg= 25.6% actual= 22.5%
30- 40%  n=316  avg= 35.2% actual= 40.5%
40- 50%  n=270  avg= 44.5% actual= 44.4%
50- 60%  n=240  avg= 54.3% actual= 53.3%
60- 70%  n=163  avg= 64.5% actual= 71.2%
70- 80%  n=33   avg= 73.7% actual= 69.7%
80- 90%  n=10   avg= 83.4% actual=100.0%

Draw · ECE 1.22%

 0- 10%  n=2    avg=  8.9% actual=  0.0%
10- 20%  n=112  avg= 17.4% actual= 18.8%
20- 30%  n=1206 avg= 25.4% actual= 24.4%
30- 40%  n=12   avg= 30.7% actual=  8.3%

Away win · ECE 1.77%

 0- 10%  n=25   avg=  7.2% actual=  4.0%
10- 20%  n=247  avg= 15.4% actual= 12.1%
20- 30%  n=339  avg= 24.7% actual= 25.1%
30- 40%  n=331  avg= 34.8% actual= 36.6%
40- 50%  n=230  avg= 44.4% actual= 45.7%
50- 60%  n=116  avg= 54.0% actual= 51.7%
60- 70%  n=32   avg= 63.7% actual= 65.6%
70- 80%  n=10   avg= 73.4% actual= 60.0%
80- 90%  n=2    avg= 82.1% actual=100.0%

BTTS · ECE 1.61%

30- 40%  n=1    avg= 39.0% actual=100.0%
40- 50%  n=110  avg= 47.8% actual= 45.5%
50- 60%  n=905  avg= 55.3% actual= 54.4%
60- 70%  n=314  avg= 62.8% actual= 59.9%
70- 80%  n=2    avg= 71.0% actual=100.0%

Over 2.5 · ECE 1.55%

30- 40%  n=9    avg= 37.5% actual= 66.7%
40- 50%  n=278  avg= 47.1% actual= 47.5%
50- 60%  n=705  avg= 54.8% actual= 53.9%
60- 70%  n=308  avg= 63.9% actual= 61.4%
70- 80%  n=31   avg= 73.2% actual= 64.5%
80- 90%  n=1    avg= 80.2% actual=100.0%

Walk-forward - latest periods

Period	N	Model 1X2 LL	Baseline 1X2 LL	Improvement
2025-09	27	0.9625	1.0441	+7.82%
2025-10	36	1.0534	1.0920	+3.53%
2025-11	36	1.0088	1.0660	+5.36%
2025-12	18	0.8662	0.9834	+11.92%
2026-01	31	1.0056	1.0859	+7.40%
2026-02	36	0.9691	1.0515	+7.84%
2026-03	31	0.9884	1.0880	+9.15%
2026-04	35	1.0260	1.1181	+8.24%
2026-05	29	1.1218	1.0794	-3.93%
2026-08	18	1.0714	1.1311	+5.28%
2026-09	27	1.0297	1.0661	+3.42%
2026-10	9	0.7451	0.9251	+19.46%

Football is data.

NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.

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Troyes vsLens

Match probabilities.

Most likely scorelines.

Strength and recent form.

Troyes

Lens

Historical matchup context.

Total goals profile.

How the model reached the estimate.

Troyes

Lens

Troyes

Lens

Historical model performance.

Home win · ECE 3.26%

Draw · ECE 1.22%

Away win · ECE 1.77%

BTTS · ECE 1.61%

Over 2.5 · ECE 1.55%

Football is data.

Troyes vs
Lens