FRA1 · Ligue 1 · Match Analysis

Monaco vs
Toulouse

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date10 Oct 2026

Target season2026/27

History window5 seasons

League tierTier 1

Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win

49.55%

Monaco

Draw

26.91%

Away win

23.53%

Toulouse

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.12 2.82 total

BTTS 56.59% Both teams to score

Over 1.5 78.77% 2+ total goals

Over 2.5 53.63% 3+ total goals

Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#11:112.80%

#22:19.65%

#31:08.64%

#42:08.62%

#50:07.41%

Additional scorelines

1:26.35%

3:15.48%

2:25.41%

0:15.18%

3:04.89%

Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Monaco

Elo1591.8

Overall attack1.71

Overall defense1.34

Home attack1.89

Home defense1.16

Form signal-0.012

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.32 / 1.33

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.25 / 1.27

Last 10 xGD-0.02

League statusSTABLE · from FRA1 2025/26

Away

Toulouse

Elo1495.7

Overall attack1.44

Overall defense1.31

Away attack1.21

Away defense1.42

Form signal+0.395

Last 5 xGF / xGA2.14 / 1.69

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.81 / 1.52

Last 10 xGD+0.29

League statusSTABLE · from FRA1 2025/26

Elo difference

+96.1

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches8Effective: 2.32

Average goals2.58Monaco 1.52 · Toulouse 1.05

H2H 3+ goals48.64%Historical context

H2H BTTS62.93%Model BTTS: 56.59%

H2H 2+ goals77.80%

H2H 3+ goals48.64%

H2H 4+ goals31.36%

H2H BTTS62.93%

Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

07.41%

113.82%

225.14%

322.28%

415.73%

58.89%

64.18%

7+2.54%

0–1 goals21.23%Low total

2+ goals78.77%Over 1.5

3+ goals53.63%Over 2.5

4+ goals31.34%Over 3.5

Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup

LeagueFRA1

Loaded teams25

Loaded historical matches1343

Target season2026/27

Previous seasons in history4

Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27

League tierTier 1

Historical league matches1343

xG matches1342 / 1343

Effective xG matches660.97

Observed home xG1.61

Observed away xG1.31

Model home xG baseline1.61

Model away xG baseline1.31

Total league xG baseline2.92

Home-advantage weight1.000

Model configdata/models/FRA1.json

Team attack half-life240.0 days

Team defense half-life240.0 days

Attack strength weight1.000

Defense strength weight1.000

Venue prior matches0.00

DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles

Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)

Dixon-Coles decay0.000

Goal overdispersion0.000

Implied goal variance H / A1.70 / 1.12

Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Monaco

Home attack strength1.123

Home defense weakness0.918

Base lambda home1.65

Attack form xGF level1.297

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.309

Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.151

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.163

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal-0.163

Model defense signal+0.151

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.32 / 1.33 / -0.01

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.25 / 1.27 / -0.02

Toulouse

Away attack strength0.944

Away defense weakness0.912

Base lambda away1.13

Attack form xGF level2.027

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.632

Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.548

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.191

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal+0.566

Model defense signal-0.172

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD2.14 / 1.69 / +0.45

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.81 / 1.52 / +0.29

Historical data coverage

Monaco

Total matches145

Home / away matches72 / 73

xG matches144 / 145

xG home / away coverage71 / 72 · 73 / 73

Effective total28.16

Effective attack / defense28.16 / 28.16

Effective home matches13.37

Effective home attack / defense13.37 / 13.37

Toulouse

Total matches145

Home / away matches73 / 72

xG matches145 / 145

xG home / away coverage73 / 73 · 72 / 72

Effective total28.20

Effective attack / defense28.20 / 28.20

Effective away matches13.77

Effective away attack / defense13.77 / 13.77

Historical data coverage

85.16%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1323 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline-0.09%

1X2 log-loss vs baseline+6.57%

BTTS Brier vs baseline-0.05%

Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+0.19%

Full backtest metrics

Model

MAE total goals1.3544

Exact score log-loss2.9759

Total goals Brier0.8304

Total goals log-loss1.9162

1X2 Brier0.6006

1X2 log-loss1.0038

BTTS Brier0.2494

Over 1.5 Brier0.1781

Over 2.5 Brier0.2474

Over 3.5 Brier0.2150

League baseline

MAE total goals1.3377

Exact score log-loss3.0577

Total goals Brier0.8307

Total goals log-loss1.9145

1X2 Brier0.6503

1X2 log-loss1.0744

BTTS Brier0.2493

Over 1.5 Brier0.1774

Over 2.5 Brier0.2479

Over 3.5 Brier0.2147

Calibration diagnostics

Home win · ECE 2.06%

 0- 10%  n=6    avg=  7.4% actual=  0.0%
10- 20%  n=61   avg= 16.3% actual=  9.8%
20- 30%  n=225  avg= 25.6% actual= 25.8%
30- 40%  n=341  avg= 35.2% actual= 37.5%
40- 50%  n=281  avg= 44.7% actual= 46.6%
50- 60%  n=219  avg= 54.5% actual= 55.7%
60- 70%  n=151  avg= 64.2% actual= 67.5%
70- 80%  n=31   avg= 73.5% actual= 77.4%
80- 90%  n=8    avg= 83.1% actual= 87.5%

Draw · ECE 2.22%

 0- 10%  n=1    avg=  9.2% actual=  0.0%
10- 20%  n=78   avg= 17.2% actual= 14.1%
20- 30%  n=1139 avg= 26.2% actual= 24.4%
30- 40%  n=105  avg= 30.9% actual= 24.8%

Away win · ECE 2.18%

 0- 10%  n=32   avg=  7.7% actual=  3.1%
10- 20%  n=262  avg= 15.6% actual= 13.7%
20- 30%  n=347  avg= 25.0% actual= 27.4%
30- 40%  n=335  avg= 34.9% actual= 37.3%
40- 50%  n=215  avg= 44.4% actual= 45.1%
50- 60%  n=88   avg= 54.0% actual= 52.3%
60- 70%  n=31   avg= 62.8% actual= 67.7%
70- 80%  n=11   avg= 73.3% actual= 63.6%
80- 90%  n=2    avg= 80.8% actual=100.0%

BTTS · ECE 2.90%

30- 40%  n=1    avg= 36.4% actual=100.0%
40- 50%  n=116  avg= 47.4% actual= 50.0%
50- 60%  n=794  avg= 55.4% actual= 55.0%
60- 70%  n=399  avg= 63.2% actual= 55.4%
70- 80%  n=13   avg= 70.9% actual= 76.9%

Over 2.5 · ECE 1.79%

20- 30%  n=1    avg= 27.5% actual=100.0%
30- 40%  n=19   avg= 37.8% actual= 52.6%
40- 50%  n=296  avg= 46.6% actual= 47.0%
50- 60%  n=640  avg= 54.8% actual= 54.8%
60- 70%  n=319  avg= 64.2% actual= 59.9%
70- 80%  n=48   avg= 72.9% actual= 62.5%

Walk-forward - latest periods

Period	N	Model 1X2 LL	Baseline 1X2 LL	Improvement
2025-08	27	0.8392	0.9769	+14.10%
2025-09	27	0.9641	1.0440	+7.66%
2025-10	36	1.0587	1.0873	+2.63%
2025-11	36	1.0135	1.0690	+5.19%
2025-12	18	0.8596	0.9932	+13.45%
2026-01	31	1.0090	1.0915	+7.56%
2026-02	36	0.9626	1.0503	+8.35%
2026-03	31	0.9873	1.0913	+9.53%
2026-04	35	1.0200	1.1091	+8.04%
2026-05	29	1.1228	1.0814	-3.83%
2026-08	18	1.0555	1.1231	+6.02%
2026-09	27	1.0421	1.0693	+2.54%

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Monaco vsToulouse

Match probabilities.

Most likely scorelines.

Strength and recent form.

Monaco

Toulouse

Historical matchup context.

Total goals profile.

How the model reached the estimate.

Monaco

Toulouse

Monaco

Toulouse

Historical model performance.

Home win · ECE 2.06%

Draw · ECE 2.22%

Away win · ECE 2.18%

BTTS · ECE 2.90%

Over 2.5 · ECE 1.79%

Football is data.

Monaco vs
Toulouse