Home win
42.64%
Celta Vigo
ESP1 · La Liga · Match Analysis
Celta Vigo vs
Alavés
Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.
Model output
Match probabilities.
Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.
Draw
27.61%
X
Away win
29.75%
Alavés
Score model
Most likely scorelines.
Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.
Additional scorelines
2:07.62%
1:27.25%
2:25.26%
0:24.99%
3:14.34%
Team context
Strength and recent form.
Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.
Home
Celta Vigo
Elo1507.2
Overall attack1.28
Overall defense1.28
Home attack1.48
Home defense1.19
Form signal+0.326
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.22 / 0.72
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.06 / 1.06
Last 10 xGD+0.00
League statusSTABLE · from ESP1 2025/26
Away
Alavés
Elo1484.8
Overall attack1.23
Overall defense1.26
Away attack1.22
Away defense1.41
Form signal-0.489
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.05 / 1.65
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.16 / 1.45
Last 10 xGD-0.29
League statusSTABLE · from ESP1 2025/26
Elo difference
+22.4
Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.
Head-to-head
Historical matchup context.
H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.
Goal distribution
Total goals profile.
The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.
08.06%
117.30%
225.78%
321.85%
414.35%
57.54%
63.30%
7+1.81%
Technical detail
How the model reached the estimate.
Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.
League baseline and model setup
LeagueESP1
Loaded teams29
Loaded historical matches1598
Target season2026/27
Previous seasons in history4
Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27
League tierTier 1
Historical league matches1598
xG matches1598 / 1598
Effective xG matches815.35
Observed home xG1.52
Observed away xG1.17
Model home xG baseline1.52
Model away xG baseline1.17
Total league xG baseline2.68
Home-advantage weight1.006
Model configdata/models/ESP1.json
Team attack half-life365.0 days
Team defense half-life365.0 days
Attack strength weight1.113
Defense strength weight1.038
Venue prior matches5.00
DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles
Dixon-Coles rho-0.068 (effective -0.068)
Dixon-Coles decay0.006
Goal overdispersion0.000
Implied goal variance H / A1.45 / 1.18
Relative strengths and form diagnostics
Celta Vigo
Home attack strength0.975
Home defense weakness1.007
Base lambda home1.39
Attack form xGF level1.165
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)0.839
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.168
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.511
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal-0.177
Model defense signal+0.503
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.22 / 0.72 / +0.50
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.06 / 1.06 / +0.00
Alavés
Away attack strength1.019
Away defense weakness0.941
Base lambda away1.20
Attack form xGF level1.088
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.577
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.283
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.265
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal-0.255
Model defense signal-0.235
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.05 / 1.65 / -0.60
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.16 / 1.45 / -0.29
Historical data coverage
Celta Vigo
Total matches160
Home / away matches80 / 80
xG matches160 / 160
xG home / away coverage80 / 80 · 80 / 80
Effective total49.62
Effective attack / defense49.62 / 49.62
Effective home matches24.55
Effective home attack / defense24.55 / 24.55
Alavés
Total matches122
Home / away matches62 / 60
xG matches122 / 122
xG home / away coverage62 / 62 · 60 / 60
Effective total46.75
Effective attack / defense46.75 / 46.75
Effective away matches22.35
Effective away attack / defense22.35 / 22.35
Historical data coverage
95.82%
This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.
Validation
Historical model performance.
Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1578 historical matches.
Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.
Total goals log-loss vs baseline+1.53%
1X2 log-loss vs baseline+8.46%
BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.35%
Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+3.43%
Full backtest metrics
Model
MAE total goals1.2686
Exact score log-loss2.8030
Total goals Brier0.8153
Total goals log-loss1.8368
1X2 Brier0.5779
1X2 log-loss0.9733
BTTS Brier0.2478
Over 1.5 Brier0.1908
Over 2.5 Brier0.2410
Over 3.5 Brier0.1840
League baseline
MAE total goals1.3152
Exact score log-loss2.9255
Total goals Brier0.8204
Total goals log-loss1.8654
1X2 Brier0.6420
1X2 log-loss1.0633
BTTS Brier0.2487
Over 1.5 Brier0.1953
Over 2.5 Brier0.2495
Over 3.5 Brier0.1904
Calibration diagnostics
Home win · ECE 2.73%
0- 10% n=9 avg= 8.4% actual= 11.1% 10- 20% n=97 avg= 15.9% actual= 20.6% 20- 30% n=220 avg= 25.5% actual= 23.6% 30- 40% n=339 avg= 35.3% actual= 36.3% 40- 50% n=393 avg= 44.7% actual= 46.1% 50- 60% n=231 avg= 54.5% actual= 55.8% 60- 70% n=144 avg= 64.4% actual= 69.4% 70- 80% n=99 avg= 74.5% actual= 87.9% 80- 90% n=46 avg= 83.0% actual= 87.0%
Draw · ECE 1.95%
0- 10% n=6 avg= 9.0% actual= 0.0% 10- 20% n=198 avg= 16.0% actual= 9.6% 20- 30% n=1141 avg= 26.3% actual= 27.5% 30- 40% n=233 avg= 31.4% actual= 29.6%
Away win · ECE 2.89%
0- 10% n=122 avg= 7.2% actual= 6.6% 10- 20% n=286 avg= 15.3% actual= 13.6% 20- 30% n=459 avg= 24.9% actual= 20.7% 30- 40% n=341 avg= 34.3% actual= 32.8% 40- 50% n=202 avg= 44.4% actual= 46.0% 50- 60% n=105 avg= 54.6% actual= 57.1% 60- 70% n=42 avg= 64.4% actual= 45.2% 70- 80% n=18 avg= 73.2% actual= 77.8% 80- 90% n=3 avg= 81.7% actual=100.0%
BTTS · ECE 3.15%
30- 40% n=67 avg= 37.8% actual= 47.8% 40- 50% n=729 avg= 45.9% actual= 50.6% 50- 60% n=662 avg= 54.0% actual= 53.6% 60- 70% n=115 avg= 63.1% actual= 67.8% 70- 80% n=5 avg= 73.1% actual= 60.0%
Over 2.5 · ECE 1.86%
20- 30% n=21 avg= 27.7% actual= 38.1% 30- 40% n=277 avg= 36.4% actual= 33.6% 40- 50% n=624 avg= 45.0% actual= 46.0% 50- 60% n=396 avg= 54.5% actual= 52.8% 60- 70% n=191 avg= 64.4% actual= 64.4% 70- 80% n=66 avg= 73.7% actual= 65.2% 80- 90% n=3 avg= 81.2% actual=100.0%
Walk-forward - latest periods
| Period | N | Model 1X2 LL | Baseline 1X2 LL | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09 | 39 | 0.9408 | 1.0522 | +10.58% |
| 2025-10 | 31 | 1.0046 | 1.0833 | +7.27% |
| 2025-11 | 38 | 0.8748 | 1.0447 | +16.26% |
| 2025-12 | 32 | 0.9668 | 1.0451 | +7.49% |
| 2026-01 | 43 | 0.9594 | 1.0625 | +9.71% |
| 2026-02 | 40 | 0.9680 | 1.0579 | +8.49% |
| 2026-03 | 36 | 0.9530 | 1.0198 | +6.56% |
| 2026-04 | 40 | 1.0503 | 1.0215 | -2.82% |
| 2026-05 | 50 | 1.0095 | 1.0529 | +4.12% |
| 2026-08 | 30 | 0.9317 | 1.0290 | +9.46% |
| 2026-09 | 39 | 0.9791 | 1.0986 | +10.88% |
| 2026-10 | 9 | 0.9149 | 1.0794 | +15.24% |
Football is data.
NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.