ESP1 · La Liga · Match Analysis

Elche vs
Celta Vigo

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date11 Oct 2026

Target season2026/27

History window5 seasons

League tierTier 1

Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win

27.64%

Elche

Draw

26.74%

Away win

45.62%

Celta Vigo

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.69 2.98 total

BTTS 60.41% Both teams to score

Over 1.5 81.15% 2+ total goals

Over 2.5 57.12% 3+ total goals

Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#11:112.52%

#21:29.38%

#30:27.31%

#40:17.20%

#52:17.11%

Additional scorelines

0:06.54%

2:26.01%

1:35.29%

1:05.11%

2:04.20%

Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Elche

Elo1459.7

Overall attack1.14

Overall defense1.72

Home attack1.49

Home defense1.93

Form signal-0.496

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.33 / 1.77

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.15 / 1.75

Last 10 xGD-0.60

League statusSTABLE · from ESP1 2025/26

Away

Celta Vigo

Elo1506.7

Overall attack1.28

Overall defense1.29

Away attack1.07

Away defense1.34

Form signal+0.334

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.42 / 0.96

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.25 / 1.15

Last 10 xGD+0.10

League statusSTABLE · from ESP1 2025/26

Elo difference

-47.0

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches4Effective: 1.39

Average goals3.29Elche 1.23 · Celta Vigo 2.06

H2H 3+ goals88.17%Historical context

H2H BTTS88.17%Model BTTS: 60.41%

H2H 2+ goals88.17%

H2H 3+ goals88.17%

H2H 4+ goals53.04%

H2H BTTS88.17%

Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

06.54%

112.30%

224.03%

322.40%

416.66%

59.91%

64.92%

7+3.23%

0–1 goals18.85%Low total

2+ goals81.15%Over 1.5

3+ goals57.12%Over 2.5

4+ goals34.72%Over 3.5

Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup

LeagueESP1

Loaded teams29

Loaded historical matches1589

Target season2026/27

Previous seasons in history4

Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27

League tierTier 1

Historical league matches1589

xG matches1589 / 1589

Effective xG matches811.86

Observed home xG1.52

Observed away xG1.16

Model home xG baseline1.52

Model away xG baseline1.16

Total league xG baseline2.68

Home-advantage weight1.000

Model configdata/models/ESP1.json

Team attack half-life240.0 days

Team defense half-life240.0 days

Attack strength weight1.000

Defense strength weight1.000

Venue prior matches0.00

DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles

Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)

Dixon-Coles decay0.000

Goal overdispersion0.000

Implied goal variance H / A1.28 / 1.69

Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Elche

Home attack strength0.985

Home defense weakness1.462

Base lambda home1.36

Attack form xGF level1.267

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.762

Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.008

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.356

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal-0.075

Model defense signal-0.421

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.33 / 1.77 / -0.44

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.15 / 1.75 / -0.60

Celta Vigo

Away attack strength0.940

Away defense weakness0.909

Base lambda away1.60

Attack form xGF level1.363

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.029

Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.036

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.255

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal+0.022

Model defense signal+0.312

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.42 / 0.96 / +0.46

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.25 / 1.15 / +0.10

Historical data coverage

Elche

Total matches83

Home / away matches41 / 42

xG matches83 / 83

xG home / away coverage41 / 41 · 42 / 42

Effective total24.74

Effective attack / defense24.74 / 24.74

Effective home matches11.79

Effective home attack / defense11.79 / 11.79

Celta Vigo

Total matches159

Home / away matches80 / 79

xG matches159 / 159

xG home / away coverage80 / 80 · 79 / 79

Effective total32.99

Effective attack / defense32.99 / 32.99

Effective away matches16.26

Effective away attack / defense16.26 / 16.26

Historical data coverage

71.12%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1569 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline+1.50%

1X2 log-loss vs baseline+8.05%

BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.37%

Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+3.17%

Full backtest metrics

Model

MAE total goals1.2675

Exact score log-loss2.8109

Total goals Brier0.8166

Total goals log-loss1.8408

1X2 Brier0.5824

1X2 log-loss0.9795

BTTS Brier0.2480

Over 1.5 Brier0.1911

Over 2.5 Brier0.2416

Over 3.5 Brier0.1839

League baseline

MAE total goals1.3119

Exact score log-loss2.9284

Total goals Brier0.8217

Total goals log-loss1.8688

1X2 Brier0.6432

1X2 log-loss1.0652

BTTS Brier0.2489

Over 1.5 Brier0.1956

Over 2.5 Brier0.2495

Over 3.5 Brier0.1899

Calibration diagnostics

Home win · ECE 3.61%

 0- 10%  n=3    avg=  8.4% actual=  0.0%
10- 20%  n=73   avg= 16.1% actual= 19.2%
20- 30%  n=221  avg= 25.3% actual= 23.5%
30- 40%  n=389  avg= 35.2% actual= 35.5%
40- 50%  n=420  avg= 44.7% actual= 47.9%
50- 60%  n=224  avg= 54.6% actual= 59.4%
60- 70%  n=139  avg= 64.7% actual= 74.8%
70- 80%  n=86   avg= 74.4% actual= 87.2%
80- 90%  n=14   avg= 81.9% actual= 85.7%

Draw · ECE 2.16%

10- 20%  n=128  avg= 16.9% actual=  7.8%
20- 30%  n=917  avg= 26.7% actual= 26.3%
30- 40%  n=524  avg= 31.6% actual= 28.1%

Away win · ECE 2.30%

 0- 10%  n=89   avg=  7.7% actual=  5.6%
10- 20%  n=318  avg= 15.4% actual= 12.6%
20- 30%  n=508  avg= 25.2% actual= 22.6%
30- 40%  n=344  avg= 34.4% actual= 36.0%
40- 50%  n=189  avg= 44.6% actual= 47.1%
50- 60%  n=82   avg= 54.0% actual= 53.7%
60- 70%  n=33   avg= 64.8% actual= 60.6%
70- 80%  n=6    avg= 74.3% actual= 83.3%

BTTS · ECE 2.57%

30- 40%  n=36   avg= 38.0% actual= 50.0%
40- 50%  n=605  avg= 46.1% actual= 50.4%
50- 60%  n=775  avg= 54.1% actual= 53.2%
60- 70%  n=145  avg= 63.0% actual= 63.4%
70- 80%  n=8    avg= 72.2% actual= 50.0%

Over 2.5 · ECE 1.75%

20- 30%  n=18   avg= 28.2% actual= 38.9%
30- 40%  n=265  avg= 36.7% actual= 34.0%
40- 50%  n=639  avg= 45.1% actual= 46.2%
50- 60%  n=415  avg= 54.5% actual= 53.3%
60- 70%  n=189  avg= 64.2% actual= 62.4%
70- 80%  n=42   avg= 73.1% actual= 66.7%
80- 90%  n=1    avg= 81.7% actual=100.0%

Walk-forward - latest periods

Period	N	Model 1X2 LL	Baseline 1X2 LL	Improvement
2025-08	31	0.9981	1.0681	+6.56%
2025-09	39	0.9340	1.0517	+11.19%
2025-10	31	1.0050	1.0881	+7.64%
2025-11	38	0.8962	1.0476	+14.46%
2025-12	32	0.9782	1.0496	+6.80%
2026-01	43	0.9692	1.0643	+8.94%
2026-02	40	0.9765	1.0599	+7.87%
2026-03	36	0.9551	1.0211	+6.46%
2026-04	40	1.0381	1.0228	-1.50%
2026-05	50	1.0149	1.0590	+4.16%
2026-08	30	0.9403	1.0318	+8.87%
2026-09	39	0.9923	1.1010	+9.87%

Football is data.

NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.

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Elche vsCelta Vigo

Match probabilities.

Most likely scorelines.

Strength and recent form.

Elche

Celta Vigo

Historical matchup context.

Total goals profile.

How the model reached the estimate.

Elche

Celta Vigo

Elche

Celta Vigo

Historical model performance.

Home win · ECE 3.61%

Draw · ECE 2.16%

Away win · ECE 2.30%

BTTS · ECE 2.57%

Over 2.5 · ECE 1.75%

Football is data.

Elche vs
Celta Vigo