ESP1 · La Liga · Match Analysis

Barcelona vs
Getafe

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date10 Oct 2026

Target season2026/27

History window5 seasons

League tierTier 1

Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win

82.36%

Barcelona

Draw

12.75%

Away win

4.90%

Getafe

Expected goals 2.92 – 0.66 3.58 total

BTTS 46.22% Both teams to score

Over 1.5 87.88% 2+ total goals

Over 2.5 69.29% 3+ total goals

Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#12:011.93%

#23:011.61%

#34:08.48%

#42:17.83%

#53:17.62%

Additional scorelines

1:07.48%

1:16.06%

4:15.56%

5:04.95%

0:03.50%

Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Barcelona

Elo1708.5

Overall attack2.58

Overall defense1.13

Home attack2.76

Home defense0.96

Form signal+2.725

Last 5 xGF / xGA4.11 / 1.30

Last 10 xGF / xGA3.73 / 1.15

Last 10 xGD+2.58

League statusSTABLE · from ESP1 2025/26

Away

Getafe

Elo1486.2

Overall attack0.86

Overall defense1.19

Away attack0.77

Away defense1.45

Form signal-0.370

Last 5 xGF / xGA0.69 / 1.05

Last 10 xGF / xGA0.69 / 1.06

Last 10 xGD-0.38

League statusSTABLE · from ESP1 2025/26

Elo difference

+222.3

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches8Effective: 2.19

Average goals2.04Barcelona 1.90 · Getafe 0.14

H2H 3+ goals29.37%Historical context

H2H BTTS13.78%Model BTTS: 46.22%

H2H 2+ goals76.30%

H2H 3+ goals29.37%

H2H 4+ goals7.38%

H2H BTTS13.78%

Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

03.50%

18.62%

218.60%

321.34%

419.07%

513.64%

68.13%

7+7.11%

0–1 goals12.12%Low total

2+ goals87.88%Over 1.5

3+ goals69.29%Over 2.5

4+ goals47.95%Over 3.5

Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup

LeagueESP1

Loaded teams29

Loaded historical matches1589

Target season2026/27

Previous seasons in history4

Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27

League tierTier 1

Historical league matches1589

xG matches1589 / 1589

Effective xG matches812.65

Observed home xG1.52

Observed away xG1.16

Model home xG baseline1.52

Model away xG baseline1.16

Total league xG baseline2.68

Home-advantage weight1.000

Model configdata/models/ESP1.json

Team attack half-life240.0 days

Team defense half-life240.0 days

Attack strength weight1.000

Defense strength weight1.000

Venue prior matches0.00

DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles

Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)

Dixon-Coles decay0.000

Goal overdispersion0.000

Implied goal variance H / A2.92 / 0.66

Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Barcelona

Home attack strength1.623

Home defense weakness0.864

Base lambda home2.38

Attack form xGF level3.977

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.251

Opponent-adjusted attack residual+2.603

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.056

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal+1.500

Model defense signal+0.090

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD4.11 / 1.30 / +2.80

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD3.73 / 1.15 / +2.58

Getafe

Away attack strength0.745

Away defense weakness0.965

Base lambda away0.75

Attack form xGF level0.687

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.057

Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.691

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.249

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal-0.654

Model defense signal+0.284

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD0.69 / 1.05 / -0.37

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD0.69 / 1.06 / -0.38

Historical data coverage

Barcelona

Total matches159

Home / away matches79 / 80

xG matches159 / 159

xG home / away coverage79 / 79 · 80 / 80

Effective total33.10

Effective attack / defense33.10 / 33.10

Effective home matches16.29

Effective home attack / defense16.29 / 16.29

Getafe

Total matches159

Home / away matches80 / 79

xG matches159 / 159

xG home / away coverage80 / 80 · 79 / 79

Effective total33.14

Effective attack / defense33.14 / 33.14

Effective away matches15.96

Effective away attack / defense15.96 / 15.96

Historical data coverage

95.96%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1569 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline+1.50%

1X2 log-loss vs baseline+8.05%

BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.37%

Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+3.17%

Full backtest metrics

Model

MAE total goals1.2675

Exact score log-loss2.8109

Total goals Brier0.8166

Total goals log-loss1.8408

1X2 Brier0.5824

1X2 log-loss0.9795

BTTS Brier0.2480

Over 1.5 Brier0.1911

Over 2.5 Brier0.2416

Over 3.5 Brier0.1839

League baseline

MAE total goals1.3119

Exact score log-loss2.9284

Total goals Brier0.8217

Total goals log-loss1.8688

1X2 Brier0.6432

1X2 log-loss1.0652

BTTS Brier0.2489

Over 1.5 Brier0.1956

Over 2.5 Brier0.2495

Over 3.5 Brier0.1899

Calibration diagnostics

Home win · ECE 3.61%

 0- 10%  n=3    avg=  8.4% actual=  0.0%
10- 20%  n=73   avg= 16.1% actual= 19.2%
20- 30%  n=221  avg= 25.3% actual= 23.5%
30- 40%  n=389  avg= 35.2% actual= 35.5%
40- 50%  n=420  avg= 44.7% actual= 47.9%
50- 60%  n=224  avg= 54.6% actual= 59.4%
60- 70%  n=139  avg= 64.7% actual= 74.8%
70- 80%  n=86   avg= 74.4% actual= 87.2%
80- 90%  n=14   avg= 81.9% actual= 85.7%

Draw · ECE 2.16%

10- 20%  n=128  avg= 16.9% actual=  7.8%
20- 30%  n=917  avg= 26.7% actual= 26.3%
30- 40%  n=524  avg= 31.6% actual= 28.1%

Away win · ECE 2.30%

 0- 10%  n=89   avg=  7.7% actual=  5.6%
10- 20%  n=318  avg= 15.4% actual= 12.6%
20- 30%  n=508  avg= 25.2% actual= 22.6%
30- 40%  n=344  avg= 34.4% actual= 36.0%
40- 50%  n=189  avg= 44.6% actual= 47.1%
50- 60%  n=82   avg= 54.0% actual= 53.7%
60- 70%  n=33   avg= 64.8% actual= 60.6%
70- 80%  n=6    avg= 74.3% actual= 83.3%

BTTS · ECE 2.57%

30- 40%  n=36   avg= 38.0% actual= 50.0%
40- 50%  n=605  avg= 46.1% actual= 50.4%
50- 60%  n=775  avg= 54.1% actual= 53.2%
60- 70%  n=145  avg= 63.0% actual= 63.4%
70- 80%  n=8    avg= 72.2% actual= 50.0%

Over 2.5 · ECE 1.75%

20- 30%  n=18   avg= 28.2% actual= 38.9%
30- 40%  n=265  avg= 36.7% actual= 34.0%
40- 50%  n=639  avg= 45.1% actual= 46.2%
50- 60%  n=415  avg= 54.5% actual= 53.3%
60- 70%  n=189  avg= 64.2% actual= 62.4%
70- 80%  n=42   avg= 73.1% actual= 66.7%
80- 90%  n=1    avg= 81.7% actual=100.0%

Walk-forward - latest periods

Period	N	Model 1X2 LL	Baseline 1X2 LL	Improvement
2025-08	31	0.9981	1.0681	+6.56%
2025-09	39	0.9340	1.0517	+11.19%
2025-10	31	1.0050	1.0881	+7.64%
2025-11	38	0.8962	1.0476	+14.46%
2025-12	32	0.9782	1.0496	+6.80%
2026-01	43	0.9692	1.0643	+8.94%
2026-02	40	0.9765	1.0599	+7.87%
2026-03	36	0.9551	1.0211	+6.46%
2026-04	40	1.0381	1.0228	-1.50%
2026-05	50	1.0149	1.0590	+4.16%
2026-08	30	0.9403	1.0318	+8.87%
2026-09	39	0.9923	1.1010	+9.87%

Football is data.

NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.

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Barcelona vsGetafe

Match probabilities.

Most likely scorelines.

Strength and recent form.

Barcelona

Getafe

Historical matchup context.

Total goals profile.

How the model reached the estimate.

Barcelona

Getafe

Barcelona

Getafe

Historical model performance.

Home win · ECE 3.61%

Draw · ECE 2.16%

Away win · ECE 2.30%

BTTS · ECE 2.57%

Over 2.5 · ECE 1.75%

Football is data.

Barcelona vs
Getafe