Home win
37.51%
Málaga
ESP1 · La Liga · Match Analysis
Málaga vs
Espanyol
Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.
Model output
Match probabilities.
Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.
Draw
29.07%
X
Away win
33.42%
Espanyol
Score model
Most likely scorelines.
Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.
Additional scorelines
0:17.26%
2:06.56%
0:25.75%
2:25.53%
3:13.93%
Team context
Strength and recent form.
Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.
Home
Málaga
Elo1470.0
Overall attack0.85
Overall defense1.70
Home attack1.37
Home defense1.83
Form signal-1.117
Last 5 xGF / xGA0.72 / 1.91
Last 10 xGF / xGA0.79 / 1.77
Last 10 xGD-0.98
League statusNEW
Away
Espanyol
Elo1456.2
Overall attack1.18
Overall defense1.46
Away attack1.07
Away defense1.58
Form signal-0.142
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.26 / 1.40
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.28 / 1.42
Last 10 xGD-0.14
League statusSTABLE · from ESP1 2025/26
Elo difference
+13.8
Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.
Head-to-head
Historical matchup context.
H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.
Goal distribution
Total goals profile.
The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.
08.42%
115.13%
226.19%
322.01%
414.77%
57.93%
63.55%
7+2.00%
Technical detail
How the model reached the estimate.
Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.
League baseline and model setup
LeagueESP1
Loaded teams29
Loaded historical matches1589
Target season2026/27
Previous seasons in history4
Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27
League tierTier 1
Historical league matches1589
xG matches1589 / 1589
Effective xG matches813.43
Observed home xG1.52
Observed away xG1.16
Model home xG baseline1.52
Model away xG baseline1.16
Total league xG baseline2.68
Home-advantage weight1.000
Model configdata/models/ESP1.json
Team attack half-life240.0 days
Team defense half-life240.0 days
Attack strength weight1.000
Defense strength weight1.000
Venue prior matches0.00
DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles
Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)
Dixon-Coles decay0.000
Goal overdispersion0.000
Implied goal variance H / A1.39 / 1.30
Relative strengths and form diagnostics
Málaga
Home attack strength0.967
Home defense weakness1.203
Base lambda home1.51
Attack form xGF level0.745
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.862
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.547
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.469
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal-0.596
Model defense signal-0.520
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 7
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD0.72 / 1.91 / -1.19
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD0.79 / 1.77 / -0.98
Espanyol
Away attack strength0.941
Away defense weakness1.028
Base lambda away1.32
Attack form xGF level1.263
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.405
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.066
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.050
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal-0.078
Model defense signal-0.063
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.26 / 1.40 / -0.14
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.28 / 1.42 / -0.14
Historical data coverage
Málaga
Total matches7
Home / away matches3 / 4
xG matches7 / 7
xG home / away coverage3 / 3 · 4 / 4
Effective total6.35
Effective attack / defense6.35 / 6.35
Effective home matches2.72
Effective home attack / defense2.72 / 2.72
Espanyol
Total matches121
Home / away matches61 / 60
xG matches121 / 121
xG home / away coverage61 / 61 · 60 / 60
Effective total31.11
Effective attack / defense31.11 / 31.11
Effective away matches15.34
Effective away attack / defense15.34 / 15.34
Historical data coverage
27.78%
This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.
Validation
Historical model performance.
Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1569 historical matches.
Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.
Total goals log-loss vs baseline+1.50%
1X2 log-loss vs baseline+8.05%
BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.37%
Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+3.17%
Full backtest metrics
Model
MAE total goals1.2675
Exact score log-loss2.8109
Total goals Brier0.8166
Total goals log-loss1.8408
1X2 Brier0.5824
1X2 log-loss0.9795
BTTS Brier0.2480
Over 1.5 Brier0.1911
Over 2.5 Brier0.2416
Over 3.5 Brier0.1839
League baseline
MAE total goals1.3119
Exact score log-loss2.9284
Total goals Brier0.8217
Total goals log-loss1.8688
1X2 Brier0.6432
1X2 log-loss1.0652
BTTS Brier0.2489
Over 1.5 Brier0.1956
Over 2.5 Brier0.2495
Over 3.5 Brier0.1899
Calibration diagnostics
Home win · ECE 3.61%
0- 10% n=3 avg= 8.4% actual= 0.0% 10- 20% n=73 avg= 16.1% actual= 19.2% 20- 30% n=221 avg= 25.3% actual= 23.5% 30- 40% n=389 avg= 35.2% actual= 35.5% 40- 50% n=420 avg= 44.7% actual= 47.9% 50- 60% n=224 avg= 54.6% actual= 59.4% 60- 70% n=139 avg= 64.7% actual= 74.8% 70- 80% n=86 avg= 74.4% actual= 87.2% 80- 90% n=14 avg= 81.9% actual= 85.7%
Draw · ECE 2.16%
10- 20% n=128 avg= 16.9% actual= 7.8% 20- 30% n=917 avg= 26.7% actual= 26.3% 30- 40% n=524 avg= 31.6% actual= 28.1%
Away win · ECE 2.30%
0- 10% n=89 avg= 7.7% actual= 5.6% 10- 20% n=318 avg= 15.4% actual= 12.6% 20- 30% n=508 avg= 25.2% actual= 22.6% 30- 40% n=344 avg= 34.4% actual= 36.0% 40- 50% n=189 avg= 44.6% actual= 47.1% 50- 60% n=82 avg= 54.0% actual= 53.7% 60- 70% n=33 avg= 64.8% actual= 60.6% 70- 80% n=6 avg= 74.3% actual= 83.3%
BTTS · ECE 2.57%
30- 40% n=36 avg= 38.0% actual= 50.0% 40- 50% n=605 avg= 46.1% actual= 50.4% 50- 60% n=775 avg= 54.1% actual= 53.2% 60- 70% n=145 avg= 63.0% actual= 63.4% 70- 80% n=8 avg= 72.2% actual= 50.0%
Over 2.5 · ECE 1.75%
20- 30% n=18 avg= 28.2% actual= 38.9% 30- 40% n=265 avg= 36.7% actual= 34.0% 40- 50% n=639 avg= 45.1% actual= 46.2% 50- 60% n=415 avg= 54.5% actual= 53.3% 60- 70% n=189 avg= 64.2% actual= 62.4% 70- 80% n=42 avg= 73.1% actual= 66.7% 80- 90% n=1 avg= 81.7% actual=100.0%
Walk-forward - latest periods
| Period | N | Model 1X2 LL | Baseline 1X2 LL | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08 | 31 | 0.9981 | 1.0681 | +6.56% |
| 2025-09 | 39 | 0.9340 | 1.0517 | +11.19% |
| 2025-10 | 31 | 1.0050 | 1.0881 | +7.64% |
| 2025-11 | 38 | 0.8962 | 1.0476 | +14.46% |
| 2025-12 | 32 | 0.9782 | 1.0496 | +6.80% |
| 2026-01 | 43 | 0.9692 | 1.0643 | +8.94% |
| 2026-02 | 40 | 0.9765 | 1.0599 | +7.87% |
| 2026-03 | 36 | 0.9551 | 1.0211 | +6.46% |
| 2026-04 | 40 | 1.0381 | 1.0228 | -1.50% |
| 2026-05 | 50 | 1.0149 | 1.0590 | +4.16% |
| 2026-08 | 30 | 0.9403 | 1.0318 | +8.87% |
| 2026-09 | 39 | 0.9923 | 1.1010 | +9.87% |
Football is data.
NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.