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ESP1 · La Liga · Match Analysis

Atlético Madrid vs
Real Madrid

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date20 Sep 2026
Target season2026/27
History window5 seasons
League tierTier 1
Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win
33.90%
Atlético Madrid
Draw
24.21%
X
Away win
41.89%
Real Madrid
Expected goals 1.69 – 1.89 3.58 total
BTTS 70.43% Both teams to score
Over 1.5 88.42% 2+ total goals
Over 2.5 69.42% 3+ total goals
Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#11:110.05%
#21:28.40%
#32:17.53%
#42:27.11%
#51:35.29%
Additional scorelines
0:24.96%
2:34.48%
3:14.25%
0:14.10%
3:24.01%
Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Atlético Madrid

Elo1591.5
Overall attack1.60
Overall defense1.18
Home attack2.02
Home defense1.05
Form signal+0.899
Last 5 xGF / xGA2.06 / 1.08
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.87 / 1.13
Last 10 xGD+0.74
League statusSTABLE · from ESP1 2025/26
Away

Real Madrid

Elo1660.6
Overall attack2.15
Overall defense1.06
Away attack1.93
Away defense1.16
Form signal+2.120
Last 5 xGF / xGA3.14 / 0.88
Last 10 xGF / xGA2.76 / 0.89
Last 10 xGD+1.87
League statusSTABLE · from ESP1 2025/26
Elo difference
-69.1

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches8Effective: 2.23
Average goals4.23Atlético Madrid 2.34 · Real Madrid 1.89
H2H 3+ goals62.90%Historical context
H2H BTTS100.00%Model BTTS: 70.43%
H2H 2+ goals100.00%
H2H 3+ goals62.90%
H2H 4+ goals60.11%
H2H BTTS100.00%
Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

03.94%
17.65%
219.00%
321.31%
419.08%
513.67%
68.17%
7+7.18%
0–1 goals11.58%Low total
2+ goals88.42%Over 1.5
3+ goals69.42%Over 2.5
4+ goals48.11%Over 3.5
Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup
LeagueESP1
Loaded teams29
Loaded historical matches1579
Target season2026/27
Previous seasons in history4
Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27
League tierTier 1
Historical league matches1579
xG matches1579 / 1579
Effective xG matches818.45
Observed home xG1.52
Observed away xG1.16
Model home xG baseline1.52
Model away xG baseline1.16
Total league xG baseline2.68
Home-advantage weight1.000
Model configdata/models/ESP1.json
Team attack half-life240.0 days
Team defense half-life240.0 days
Attack strength weight1.000
Defense strength weight1.000
Venue prior matches0.00
DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles
Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)
Dixon-Coles decay0.000
Goal overdispersion0.000
Implied goal variance H / A1.69 / 1.89
Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Atlético Madrid

Home attack strength1.258
Home defense weakness0.922
Base lambda home1.56
Attack form xGF level1.996
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.097
Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.647
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.233
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal+0.656
Model defense signal+0.243
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD2.06 / 1.08 / +0.99
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.87 / 1.13 / +0.74

Real Madrid

Away attack strength1.507
Away defense weakness0.817
Base lambda away1.62
Attack form xGF level3.006
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)0.886
Opponent-adjusted attack residual+1.598
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.390
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal+1.500
Model defense signal+0.454
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD3.14 / 0.88 / +2.26
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD2.76 / 0.89 / +1.87
Historical data coverage

Atlético Madrid

Total matches158
Home / away matches79 / 79
xG matches158 / 158
xG home / away coverage79 / 79 · 79 / 79
Effective total34.06
Effective attack / defense34.06 / 34.06
Effective home matches16.86
Effective home attack / defense16.86 / 16.86

Real Madrid

Total matches158
Home / away matches79 / 79
xG matches158 / 158
xG home / away coverage79 / 79 · 79 / 79
Effective total34.06
Effective attack / defense34.06 / 34.06
Effective away matches16.91
Effective away attack / defense16.91 / 16.91
Historical data coverage
95.99%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1559 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline+1.47%
1X2 log-loss vs baseline+8.04%
BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.32%
Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+3.02%
Full backtest metrics
Model
MAE total goals1.2679
Exact score log-loss2.8106
Total goals Brier0.8166
Total goals log-loss1.8409
1X2 Brier0.5823
1X2 log-loss0.9794
BTTS Brier0.2482
Over 1.5 Brier0.1915
Over 2.5 Brier0.2420
Over 3.5 Brier0.1834
League baseline
MAE total goals1.3109
Exact score log-loss2.9275
Total goals Brier0.8214
Total goals log-loss1.8684
1X2 Brier0.6430
1X2 log-loss1.0651
BTTS Brier0.2490
Over 1.5 Brier0.1959
Over 2.5 Brier0.2495
Over 3.5 Brier0.1893
Calibration diagnostics
Home win · ECE 3.64%
 0- 10%  n=3    avg=  8.4% actual=  0.0%
10- 20%  n=72   avg= 16.2% actual= 19.4%
20- 30%  n=221  avg= 25.3% actual= 23.5%
30- 40%  n=387  avg= 35.3% actual= 35.4%
40- 50%  n=415  avg= 44.7% actual= 48.2%
50- 60%  n=222  avg= 54.6% actual= 59.0%
60- 70%  n=139  avg= 64.7% actual= 74.8%
70- 80%  n=86   avg= 74.4% actual= 87.2%
80- 90%  n=14   avg= 81.9% actual= 85.7%
Draw · ECE 2.19%
10- 20%  n=127  avg= 16.9% actual=  7.9%
20- 30%  n=911  avg= 26.7% actual= 26.2%
30- 40%  n=521  avg= 31.6% actual= 28.0%
Away win · ECE 2.41%
 0- 10%  n=89   avg=  7.7% actual=  5.6%
10- 20%  n=317  avg= 15.4% actual= 12.6%
20- 30%  n=502  avg= 25.2% actual= 22.5%
30- 40%  n=343  avg= 34.4% actual= 36.2%
40- 50%  n=188  avg= 44.6% actual= 47.3%
50- 60%  n=82   avg= 54.0% actual= 53.7%
60- 70%  n=32   avg= 64.6% actual= 59.4%
70- 80%  n=6    avg= 74.3% actual= 83.3%
BTTS · ECE 2.64%
30- 40%  n=35   avg= 38.0% actual= 51.4%
40- 50%  n=604  avg= 46.1% actual= 50.3%
50- 60%  n=771  avg= 54.2% actual= 53.0%
60- 70%  n=142  avg= 63.1% actual= 63.4%
70- 80%  n=7    avg= 72.5% actual= 42.9%
Over 2.5 · ECE 1.95%
20- 30%  n=17   avg= 28.3% actual= 41.2%
30- 40%  n=264  avg= 36.7% actual= 33.7%
40- 50%  n=635  avg= 45.1% actual= 46.3%
50- 60%  n=415  avg= 54.5% actual= 53.3%
60- 70%  n=186  avg= 64.2% actual= 61.8%
70- 80%  n=41   avg= 73.1% actual= 65.9%
80- 90%  n=1    avg= 81.7% actual=100.0%
Walk-forward - latest periods
Period N Model 1X2 LL Baseline 1X2 LL Improvement
2025-08 31 0.9981 1.0681 +6.56%
2025-09 39 0.9340 1.0517 +11.19%
2025-10 31 1.0050 1.0881 +7.64%
2025-11 38 0.8962 1.0476 +14.46%
2025-12 32 0.9782 1.0496 +6.80%
2026-01 43 0.9692 1.0643 +8.94%
2026-02 40 0.9765 1.0599 +7.87%
2026-03 36 0.9551 1.0211 +6.46%
2026-04 40 1.0381 1.0228 -1.50%
2026-05 50 1.0149 1.0590 +4.16%
2026-08 30 0.9403 1.0318 +8.87%
2026-09 29 0.9889 1.1040 +10.42%

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