ENG1 · Premier League · Match Analysis

Nottingham Forest vs
Arsenal

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date18 Oct 2026

Target season2026/27

History window5 seasons

League tierTier 1

Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win

17.64%

Nottingham Forest

Draw

27.22%

Away win

55.15%

Arsenal

Expected goals 0.78 - 1.57 2.35 total

BTTS 43.83% Both teams to score

Over 1.5 68.96% 2+ total goals

Over 2.5 41.68% 3+ total goals

Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#10:114.04%

#21:112.63%

#30:211.74%

#40:010.49%

#51:29.16%

Additional scorelines

1:06.51%

0:36.14%

1:34.79%

2:14.56%

2:23.58%

Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Nottingham Forest

Elo1482.9

Overall attack1.33

Overall defense1.43

Home attack1.27

Home defense1.14

Form signal+0.598

Last 5 xGF / xGA2.10 / 1.40

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.91 / 1.49

Last 10 xGD+0.41

League statusSTABLE · from ENG1 2025/26

Away

Arsenal

Elo1660.1

Overall attack1.75

Overall defense0.81

Away attack1.63

Away defense0.95

Form signal+0.980

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.87 / 0.94

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.90 / 0.83

Last 10 xGD+1.07

League statusSTABLE · from ENG1 2025/26

Elo difference

-177.1

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches8Effective: 2.07

Average goals1.65Nottingham Forest 0.17 · Arsenal 1.47

H2H 3+ goals51.27%Historical context

H2H BTTS12.65%Model BTTS: 43.83%

H2H 2+ goals51.27%

H2H 3+ goals51.27%

H2H 4+ goals3.08%

H2H BTTS12.65%

Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

010.49%

120.55%

227.28%

320.62%

412.11%

55.69%

62.23%

7+1.04%

0-1 goals31.04%Low total

2+ goals68.96%Over 1.5

3+ goals41.68%Over 2.5

4+ goals21.06%Over 3.5

Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup

LeagueENG1

Loaded teams27

Loaded historical matches1580

Target season2026/27

Previous seasons in history4

Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27

League tierTier 1

Historical league matches1580

xG matches1580 / 1580

Effective xG matches795.82

Observed home xG1.60

Observed away xG1.32

Model home xG baseline1.58

Model away xG baseline1.33

Total league xG baseline2.92

Home-advantage weight0.900

Model configdata/models/ENG1.json

Team attack half-life240.0 days

Team defense half-life240.0 days

Attack strength weight0.769

Defense strength weight1.006

Venue prior matches3.81

DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles

Dixon-Coles rho-0.080 (effective -0.080)

Dixon-Coles decay0.025

Goal overdispersion0.000

Implied goal variance H / A0.78 / 1.57

Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Nottingham Forest

Home attack strength0.828

Home defense weakness0.895

Base lambda home0.84

Attack form xGF level2.029

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.431

Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.593

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.051

Opponent-adjustment weight0.003

Model attack signal+0.572

Model defense signal+0.027

Opponent blend0.050

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD2.10 / 1.40 / +0.70

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.91 / 1.49 / +0.41

Arsenal

Away attack strength1.216

Away defense weakness0.612

Base lambda away1.39

Attack form xGF level1.880

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)0.899

Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.372

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.511

Opponent-adjustment weight0.003

Model attack signal+0.422

Model defense signal+0.558

Opponent blend0.050

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.87 / 0.94 / +0.93

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.90 / 0.83 / +1.07

Historical data coverage

Nottingham Forest

Total matches158

Home / away matches79 / 79

xG matches158 / 158

xG home / away coverage79 / 79 · 79 / 79

Effective total31.25

Effective attack / defense31.25 / 31.25

Effective home matches15.66

Effective home attack / defense15.66 / 15.66

Arsenal

Total matches158

Home / away matches79 / 79

xG matches158 / 158

xG home / away coverage79 / 79 · 79 / 79

Effective total31.21

Effective attack / defense31.21 / 31.21

Effective away matches15.54

Effective away attack / defense15.54 / 15.54

Historical data coverage

95.86%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1560 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.39%

1X2 log-loss vs baseline+8.77%

BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.20%

Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+1.47%

Full backtest metrics

Model

MAE total goals1.3214

Exact score log-loss2.9763

Total goals Brier0.8267

Total goals log-loss1.8983

1X2 Brier0.5816

1X2 log-loss0.9769

BTTS Brier0.2450

Over 1.5 Brier0.1565

Over 2.5 Brier0.2406

Over 3.5 Brier0.2225

League baseline

MAE total goals1.3162

Exact score log-loss3.0981

Total goals Brier0.8288

Total goals log-loss1.9058

1X2 Brier0.6478

1X2 log-loss1.0708

BTTS Brier0.2454

Over 1.5 Brier0.1573

Over 2.5 Brier0.2442

Over 3.5 Brier0.2253

Calibration diagnostics

Home win · ECE 1.88%

 0- 10%  n=23   avg=  7.6% actual=  4.3%
10- 20%  n=124  avg= 16.0% actual= 11.3%
20- 30%  n=255  avg= 25.4% actual= 26.7%
30- 40%  n=307  avg= 35.1% actual= 38.8%
40- 50%  n=308  avg= 44.9% actual= 44.8%
50- 60%  n=242  avg= 55.0% actual= 55.4%
60- 70%  n=180  avg= 64.5% actual= 67.8%
70- 80%  n=90   avg= 74.0% actual= 74.4%
80- 90%  n=31   avg= 84.0% actual= 87.1%

Draw · ECE 1.60%

 0- 10%  n=9    avg=  8.8% actual=  0.0%
10- 20%  n=202  avg= 16.9% actual= 13.9%
20- 30%  n=1298 avg= 25.3% actual= 26.2%
30- 40%  n=51   avg= 31.0% actual= 19.6%

Away win · ECE 1.94%

 0- 10%  n=98   avg=  7.2% actual=  8.2%
10- 20%  n=287  avg= 15.3% actual= 12.5%
20- 30%  n=371  avg= 25.0% actual= 22.6%
30- 40%  n=311  avg= 34.6% actual= 34.4%
40- 50%  n=250  avg= 44.5% actual= 42.4%
50- 60%  n=153  avg= 54.4% actual= 56.2%
60- 70%  n=61   avg= 64.8% actual= 68.9%
70- 80%  n=24   avg= 74.2% actual= 79.2%
80- 90%  n=5    avg= 83.7% actual= 80.0%

BTTS · ECE 2.23%

30- 40%  n=15   avg= 37.4% actual= 33.3%
40- 50%  n=297  avg= 46.4% actual= 50.8%
50- 60%  n=857  avg= 55.2% actual= 56.8%
60- 70%  n=385  avg= 63.3% actual= 61.6%
70- 80%  n=6    avg= 70.7% actual= 66.7%

Over 2.5 · ECE 1.98%

20- 30%  n=1    avg= 25.7% actual=  0.0%
30- 40%  n=44   avg= 37.3% actual= 40.9%
40- 50%  n=329  avg= 46.3% actual= 48.6%
50- 60%  n=702  avg= 54.9% actual= 57.3%
60- 70%  n=417  avg= 63.9% actual= 63.1%
70- 80%  n=64   avg= 72.4% actual= 73.4%
80- 90%  n=3    avg= 80.5% actual=100.0%

Walk-forward - latest periods

Period	N	Model 1X2 LL	Baseline 1X2 LL	Improvement
2025-09	30	0.9867	1.1044	+10.66%
2025-10	30	0.9685	0.9879	+1.96%
2025-11	40	0.9440	1.0317	+8.51%
2025-12	56	0.9968	1.0997	+9.36%
2026-01	49	1.1465	1.1210	-2.28%
2026-02	42	1.0314	1.1383	+9.40%
2026-03	32	1.1157	1.0927	-2.11%
2026-04	30	1.0022	1.0548	+4.98%
2026-05	41	1.0433	1.0775	+3.17%
2026-08	20	0.9402	1.0435	+9.90%
2026-09	30	1.1023	1.1547	+4.53%
2026-10	10	1.0262	1.0587	+3.08%

Football is data.

NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.

Back to Matches Follow on X

Nottingham Forest vsArsenal

Match probabilities.

Most likely scorelines.

Strength and recent form.

Nottingham Forest

Arsenal

Historical matchup context.

Total goals profile.

How the model reached the estimate.

Nottingham Forest

Arsenal

Nottingham Forest

Arsenal

Historical model performance.

Home win · ECE 1.88%

Draw · ECE 1.60%

Away win · ECE 1.94%

BTTS · ECE 2.23%

Over 2.5 · ECE 1.98%

Football is data.

Nottingham Forest vs
Arsenal