ENG1 · Premier League · Match Analysis

Hull City vs
Everton

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date11 Oct 2026

Target season2026/27

History window5 seasons

League tierTier 1

Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win

35.04%

Hull City

Draw

29.02%

Away win

35.95%

Everton

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.36 2.70 total

BTTS 56.41% Both teams to score

Over 1.5 76.68% 2+ total goals

Over 2.5 50.57% 3+ total goals

Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#11:113.85%

#20:08.33%

#31:28.33%

#42:18.20%

#50:17.56%

Additional scorelines

1:07.43%

0:26.22%

2:06.04%

2:25.57%

1:33.77%

Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Hull City

Elo1514.0

Overall attack1.06

Overall defense1.48

Home attack0.79

Home defense1.88

Form signal-0.303

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.13 / 1.44

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.13 / 1.44

Last 10 xGD-0.30

League statusNEW

Away

Everton

Elo1514.7

Overall attack1.26

Overall defense1.43

Away attack1.16

Away defense1.58

Form signal+0.199

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.53 / 1.30

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.46 / 1.33

Last 10 xGD+0.14

League statusSTABLE · from ENG1 2025/26

Elo difference

-0.6

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches0Effective: 0.00

Average goals0.00Hull City 0.00 · Everton 0.00

H2H 3+ goals0.00%Historical context

H2H BTTS0.00%Model BTTS: 56.41%

H2H 2+ goals0.00%

H2H 3+ goals0.00%

H2H 4+ goals0.00%

H2H BTTS0.00%

Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

08.33%

114.99%

226.11%

322.04%

414.86%

58.02%

63.60%

7+2.05%

0–1 goals23.32%Low total

2+ goals76.68%Over 1.5

3+ goals50.57%Over 2.5

4+ goals28.53%Over 3.5

Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup

LeagueENG1

Loaded teams27

Loaded historical matches1570

Target season2026/27

Previous seasons in history4

Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27

League tierTier 1

Historical league matches1570

xG matches1570 / 1570

Effective xG matches791.20

Observed home xG1.60

Observed away xG1.32

Model home xG baseline1.60

Model away xG baseline1.32

Total league xG baseline2.91

Home-advantage weight1.000

Model configdata/models/ENG1.json

Team attack half-life240.0 days

Team defense half-life240.0 days

Attack strength weight1.000

Defense strength weight1.000

Venue prior matches0.00

DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles

Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)

Dixon-Coles decay0.000

Goal overdispersion0.000

Implied goal variance H / A1.34 / 1.36

Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Hull City

Home attack strength0.867

Home defense weakness1.112

Base lambda home1.37

Attack form xGF level1.133

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.436

Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.269

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.074

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal-0.324

Model defense signal+0.020

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 5

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.13 / 1.44 / -0.30

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.13 / 1.44 / -0.30

Everton

Away attack strength0.913

Away defense weakness0.990

Base lambda away1.34

Attack form xGF level1.508

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.309

Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.016

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.114

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal+0.051

Model defense signal+0.148

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.53 / 1.30 / +0.23

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.46 / 1.33 / +0.14

Historical data coverage

Hull City

Total matches5

Home / away matches2 / 3

xG matches5 / 5

xG home / away coverage2 / 2 · 3 / 3

Effective total4.51

Effective attack / defense4.51 / 4.51

Effective home matches1.77

Effective home attack / defense1.77 / 1.77

Everton

Total matches157

Home / away matches79 / 78

xG matches157 / 157

xG home / away coverage79 / 79 · 78 / 78

Effective total30.92

Effective attack / defense30.92 / 30.92

Effective away matches15.11

Effective away attack / defense15.11 / 15.11

Historical data coverage

26.32%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1550 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.34%

1X2 log-loss vs baseline+8.36%

BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.33%

Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+1.37%

Full backtest metrics

Model

MAE total goals1.3257

Exact score log-loss2.9853

Total goals Brier0.8276

Total goals log-loss1.9024

1X2 Brier0.5853

1X2 log-loss0.9827

BTTS Brier0.2452

Over 1.5 Brier0.1577

Over 2.5 Brier0.2410

Over 3.5 Brier0.2225

League baseline

MAE total goals1.3179

Exact score log-loss3.1008

Total goals Brier0.8295

Total goals log-loss1.9089

1X2 Brier0.6487

1X2 log-loss1.0724

BTTS Brier0.2461

Over 1.5 Brier0.1580

Over 2.5 Brier0.2443

Over 3.5 Brier0.2250

Calibration diagnostics

Home win · ECE 2.47%

 0- 10%  n=14   avg=  8.3% actual=  7.1%
10- 20%  n=95   avg= 16.3% actual= 11.6%
20- 30%  n=247  avg= 25.8% actual= 22.7%
30- 40%  n=346  avg= 35.2% actual= 39.0%
40- 50%  n=327  avg= 44.8% actual= 45.0%
50- 60%  n=258  avg= 55.1% actual= 56.2%
60- 70%  n=165  avg= 64.5% actual= 68.5%
70- 80%  n=83   avg= 74.1% actual= 75.9%
80- 90%  n=15   avg= 84.1% actual= 93.3%

Draw · ECE 1.36%

 0- 10%  n=3    avg=  9.4% actual=  0.0%
10- 20%  n=139  avg= 17.0% actual= 14.4%
20- 30%  n=1267 avg= 25.9% actual= 25.6%
30- 40%  n=141  avg= 31.1% actual= 22.0%

Away win · ECE 3.47%

 0- 10%  n=82   avg=  7.6% actual=  7.3%
10- 20%  n=310  avg= 15.6% actual= 15.5%
20- 30%  n=394  avg= 25.0% actual= 21.1%
30- 40%  n=351  avg= 34.5% actual= 38.7%
40- 50%  n=236  avg= 44.3% actual= 41.5%
50- 60%  n=119  avg= 54.3% actual= 63.9%
60- 70%  n=43   avg= 64.5% actual= 74.4%
70- 80%  n=12   avg= 73.2% actual= 75.0%
80- 90%  n=3    avg= 81.8% actual= 66.7%

BTTS · ECE 2.61%

30- 40%  n=3    avg= 35.9% actual= 33.3%
40- 50%  n=202  avg= 47.4% actual= 49.0%
50- 60%  n=862  avg= 55.3% actual= 57.0%
60- 70%  n=463  avg= 63.5% actual= 59.0%
70- 80%  n=20   avg= 71.1% actual= 60.0%

Over 2.5 · ECE 2.48%

20- 30%  n=1    avg= 26.1% actual=  0.0%
30- 40%  n=32   avg= 37.7% actual= 43.8%
40- 50%  n=346  avg= 46.1% actual= 49.4%
50- 60%  n=661  avg= 55.1% actual= 57.0%
60- 70%  n=434  avg= 64.3% actual= 62.7%
70- 80%  n=75   avg= 72.9% actual= 66.7%
80- 90%  n=1    avg= 80.1% actual=100.0%

Walk-forward - latest periods

Period	N	Model 1X2 LL	Baseline 1X2 LL	Improvement
2025-08	30	0.9775	1.0463	+6.58%
2025-09	30	0.9920	1.0984	+9.68%
2025-10	30	0.9667	0.9993	+3.26%
2025-11	40	0.9613	1.0369	+7.29%
2025-12	56	0.9987	1.0989	+9.11%
2026-01	49	1.1387	1.1126	-2.34%
2026-02	42	1.0318	1.1382	+9.34%
2026-03	32	1.1246	1.0900	-3.17%
2026-04	30	1.0012	1.0588	+5.44%
2026-05	41	1.0345	1.0728	+3.57%
2026-08	20	0.9484	1.0473	+9.44%
2026-09	30	1.0955	1.1474	+4.52%

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Hull City vsEverton

Match probabilities.

Most likely scorelines.

Strength and recent form.

Hull City

Everton

Historical matchup context.

Total goals profile.

How the model reached the estimate.

Hull City

Everton

Hull City

Everton

Historical model performance.

Home win · ECE 2.47%

Draw · ECE 1.36%

Away win · ECE 3.47%

BTTS · ECE 2.61%

Over 2.5 · ECE 2.48%

Football is data.

Hull City vs
Everton