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ENG1 · Premier League · Match Analysis

Brentford vs
Chelsea

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date18 Sep 2026
Target season2026/27
History window5 seasons
League tierTier 1
Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win
42.75%
Brentford
Draw
25.77%
X
Away win
31.48%
Chelsea
Expected goals 1.75 – 1.48 3.23 total
BTTS 65.13% Both teams to score
Over 1.5 84.58% 2+ total goals
Over 2.5 62.59% 3+ total goals
Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#11:111.59%
#22:18.96%
#31:27.60%
#42:26.63%
#52:06.05%
Additional scorelines
1:05.59%
0:05.30%
3:15.22%
0:14.54%
0:24.35%
Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Brentford

Elo1528.1
Overall attack1.61
Overall defense1.45
Home attack2.01
Home defense1.33
Form signal-0.128
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.56 / 1.67
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.50 / 1.67
Last 10 xGD-0.17
League statusSTABLE · from ENG1 2025/26
Away

Chelsea

Elo1529.0
Overall attack1.72
Overall defense1.38
Away attack1.55
Away defense1.47
Form signal-0.219
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.38 / 1.59
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.27 / 1.51
Last 10 xGD-0.23
League statusSTABLE · from ENG1 2025/26
Elo difference
-0.9

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches8Effective: 2.25
Average goals2.34Brentford 0.93 · Chelsea 1.41
H2H 3+ goals42.71%Historical context
H2H BTTS42.71%Model BTTS: 65.13%
H2H 2+ goals80.83%
H2H 3+ goals42.71%
H2H 4+ goals29.59%
H2H BTTS42.71%
Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

05.30%
110.13%
221.98%
322.22%
417.93%
511.58%
66.23%
7+4.63%
0–1 goals15.42%Low total
2+ goals84.58%Over 1.5
3+ goals62.59%Over 2.5
4+ goals40.37%Over 3.5
Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup
LeagueENG1
Loaded teams27
Loaded historical matches1560
Target season2026/27
Previous seasons in history4
Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27
League tierTier 1
Historical league matches1560
xG matches1560 / 1560
Effective xG matches798.91
Observed home xG1.60
Observed away xG1.31
Model home xG baseline1.60
Model away xG baseline1.31
Total league xG baseline2.91
Home-advantage weight1.000
Model configdata/models/ENG1.json
Team attack half-life240.0 days
Team defense half-life240.0 days
Attack strength weight1.000
Defense strength weight1.000
Venue prior matches0.00
DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles
Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)
Dixon-Coles decay0.000
Goal overdispersion0.000
Implied goal variance H / A1.75 / 1.48
Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Brentford

Home attack strength1.199
Home defense weakness1.009
Base lambda home1.80
Attack form xGF level1.539
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.667
Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.107
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.187
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal+0.084
Model defense signal-0.212
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.56 / 1.67 / -0.11
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.50 / 1.67 / -0.17

Chelsea

Away attack strength1.137
Away defense weakness0.939
Base lambda away1.51
Attack form xGF level1.344
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.563
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.102
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.096
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal-0.111
Model defense signal-0.108
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 10
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.38 / 1.59 / -0.21
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.27 / 1.51 / -0.23
Historical data coverage

Brentford

Total matches156
Home / away matches78 / 78
xG matches156 / 156
xG home / away coverage78 / 78 · 78 / 78
Effective total32.02
Effective attack / defense32.02 / 32.02
Effective home matches15.91
Effective home attack / defense15.91 / 15.91

Chelsea

Total matches156
Home / away matches78 / 78
xG matches156 / 156
xG home / away coverage78 / 78 · 78 / 78
Effective total32.04
Effective attack / defense32.04 / 32.04
Effective away matches15.99
Effective away attack / defense15.99 / 15.99
Historical data coverage
96.01%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1540 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline+0.33%
1X2 log-loss vs baseline+8.42%
BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.34%
Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline+1.35%
Full backtest metrics
Model
MAE total goals1.3233
Exact score log-loss2.9835
Total goals Brier0.8274
Total goals log-loss1.9007
1X2 Brier0.5851
1X2 log-loss0.9823
BTTS Brier0.2450
Over 1.5 Brier0.1570
Over 2.5 Brier0.2410
Over 3.5 Brier0.2228
League baseline
MAE total goals1.3154
Exact score log-loss3.1001
Total goals Brier0.8292
Total goals log-loss1.9070
1X2 Brier0.6488
1X2 log-loss1.0726
BTTS Brier0.2459
Over 1.5 Brier0.1572
Over 2.5 Brier0.2443
Over 3.5 Brier0.2253
Calibration diagnostics
Home win · ECE 2.59%
 0- 10%  n=14   avg=  8.3% actual=  7.1%
10- 20%  n=95   avg= 16.3% actual= 11.6%
20- 30%  n=246  avg= 25.8% actual= 22.4%
30- 40%  n=343  avg= 35.2% actual= 39.4%
40- 50%  n=322  avg= 44.8% actual= 44.7%
50- 60%  n=258  avg= 55.1% actual= 56.2%
60- 70%  n=164  avg= 64.5% actual= 68.3%
70- 80%  n=83   avg= 74.1% actual= 75.9%
80- 90%  n=15   avg= 84.1% actual= 93.3%
Draw · ECE 1.32%
 0- 10%  n=3    avg=  9.4% actual=  0.0%
10- 20%  n=139  avg= 17.0% actual= 14.4%
20- 30%  n=1257 avg= 25.9% actual= 25.6%
30- 40%  n=141  avg= 31.1% actual= 22.0%
Away win · ECE 3.45%
 0- 10%  n=82   avg=  7.6% actual=  7.3%
10- 20%  n=309  avg= 15.6% actual= 15.5%
20- 30%  n=391  avg= 25.0% actual= 21.0%
30- 40%  n=346  avg= 34.5% actual= 38.7%
40- 50%  n=235  avg= 44.3% actual= 41.7%
50- 60%  n=119  avg= 54.3% actual= 63.9%
60- 70%  n=43   avg= 64.5% actual= 74.4%
70- 80%  n=12   avg= 73.2% actual= 75.0%
80- 90%  n=3    avg= 81.8% actual= 66.7%
BTTS · ECE 2.58%
30- 40%  n=3    avg= 35.9% actual= 33.3%
40- 50%  n=202  avg= 47.4% actual= 49.0%
50- 60%  n=854  avg= 55.3% actual= 57.0%
60- 70%  n=461  avg= 63.5% actual= 59.2%
70- 80%  n=20   avg= 71.1% actual= 60.0%
Over 2.5 · ECE 2.57%
20- 30%  n=1    avg= 26.1% actual=  0.0%
30- 40%  n=32   avg= 37.7% actual= 43.8%
40- 50%  n=344  avg= 46.1% actual= 49.4%
50- 60%  n=654  avg= 55.1% actual= 57.2%
60- 70%  n=433  avg= 64.3% actual= 62.6%
70- 80%  n=75   avg= 72.9% actual= 66.7%
80- 90%  n=1    avg= 80.1% actual=100.0%
Walk-forward - latest periods
Period N Model 1X2 LL Baseline 1X2 LL Improvement
2025-08 30 0.9775 1.0463 +6.58%
2025-09 30 0.9920 1.0984 +9.68%
2025-10 30 0.9667 0.9993 +3.26%
2025-11 40 0.9613 1.0369 +7.29%
2025-12 56 0.9987 1.0989 +9.11%
2026-01 49 1.1387 1.1126 -2.34%
2026-02 42 1.0318 1.1382 +9.34%
2026-03 32 1.1246 1.0900 -3.17%
2026-04 30 1.0012 1.0588 +5.44%
2026-05 41 1.0345 1.0728 +3.57%
2026-08 20 0.9484 1.0473 +9.44%
2026-09 20 1.1195 1.1976 +6.53%

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NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.

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