BEL1 · Belgian Pro League · Match Analysis

Genk vs
Kortrijk

Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.

Analysis date10 Oct 2026

Target season2026/27

History window5 seasons

League tierTier 1

Model output

Match probabilities.

Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.

Home win

75.22%

Genk

Draw

16.61%

Away win

8.17%

Kortrijk

Expected goals 2.60 – 0.79 3.39 total

BTTS 51.44% Both teams to score

Over 1.5 86.06% 2+ total goals

Over 2.5 65.75% 3+ total goals

Score model

Most likely scorelines.

Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.

#12:011.41%

#23:09.87%

#32:19.01%

#41:07.88%

#51:17.84%

Additional scorelines

3:17.80%

4:06.41%

4:15.06%

0:04.29%

2:23.56%

Team context

Strength and recent form.

Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.

Home

Genk

Elo1566.0

Overall attack1.68

Overall defense1.24

Home attack2.07

Home defense0.89

Form signal+0.325

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.60 / 1.40

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.80 / 1.25

Last 10 xGD+0.55

League statusSTABLE · from BEL1 2025/26

Away

Kortrijk

Elo1404.5

Overall attack1.02

Overall defense1.86

Away attack0.65

Away defense2.78

Form signal-0.411

Last 5 xGF / xGA1.20 / 1.53

Last 10 xGF / xGA1.13 / 1.69

Last 10 xGD-0.55

League statusSTABLE · from BEL1 2024/25

Elo difference

+161.5

Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.

Head-to-head

Historical matchup context.

H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.

H2H matches6Effective: 0.93

Average goals3.60Genk 2.32 · Kortrijk 1.27

H2H 3+ goals92.26%Historical context

H2H BTTS63.16%Model BTTS: 51.44%

H2H 2+ goals92.26%

H2H 3+ goals92.26%

H2H 4+ goals45.16%

H2H BTTS63.16%

Goal distribution

Total goals profile.

The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.

04.29%

19.66%

220.31%

321.90%

418.54%

512.55%

67.08%

7+5.68%

0–1 goals13.94%Low total

2+ goals86.06%Over 1.5

3+ goals65.75%Over 2.5

4+ goals43.85%Over 3.5

Technical detail

How the model reached the estimate.

Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.

League baseline and model setup

LeagueBEL1

Loaded teams24

Loaded historical matches1179

Target season2026/27

Previous seasons in history4

Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27

League tierTier 1

Historical league matches1179

xG matches333 / 1179

Effective xG matches263.02

Observed home xG1.61

Observed away xG1.32

Model home xG baseline1.61

Model away xG baseline1.32

Total league xG baseline2.93

Home-advantage weight1.000

Model configdata/models/BEL1.json

Team attack half-life240.0 days

Team defense half-life240.0 days

Attack strength weight1.000

Defense strength weight1.000

Venue prior matches0.00

DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles

Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)

Dixon-Coles decay0.000

Goal overdispersion0.000

Implied goal variance H / A2.60 / 0.79

Relative strengths and form diagnostics

Genk

Home attack strength1.180

Home defense weakness0.791

Base lambda home2.38

Attack form xGF level1.674

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.348

Opponent-adjusted attack residual+0.237

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)+0.152

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal+0.206

Model defense signal+0.119

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 10

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.60 / 1.40 / +0.20

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.80 / 1.25 / +0.55

Kortrijk

Away attack strength0.824

Away defense weakness1.250

Base lambda away0.86

Attack form xGF level1.173

Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.583

Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.283

Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.105

Opponent-adjustment weight0.000

Model attack signal-0.295

Model defense signal-0.116

Opponent blend0.000

Form matches 5 / 105 / 7

Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.20 / 1.53 / -0.33

Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.13 / 1.69 / -0.55

Historical data coverage

Genk

Total matches151

Home / away matches75 / 76

xG matches37 / 151

xG home / away coverage18 / 75 · 19 / 76

Effective total18.41

Effective attack / defense18.41 / 18.41

Effective home matches8.83

Effective home attack / defense8.83 / 8.83

Kortrijk

Total matches101

Home / away matches51 / 50

xG matches7 / 101

xG home / away coverage4 / 51 · 3 / 50

Effective total6.24

Effective attack / defense6.24 / 6.24

Effective away matches2.65

Effective away attack / defense2.65 / 2.65

Historical data coverage

27.85%

This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.

Validation

Historical model performance.

Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1159 historical matches.

Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.

Total goals log-loss vs baseline-0.05%

1X2 log-loss vs baseline+2.96%

BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.23%

Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline-0.52%

Full backtest metrics

Model

MAE total goals1.3639

Exact score log-loss3.0338

Total goals Brier0.8324

Total goals log-loss1.9152

1X2 Brier0.6289

1X2 log-loss1.0443

BTTS Brier0.2499

Over 1.5 Brier0.1776

Over 2.5 Brier0.2517

Over 3.5 Brier0.2178

League baseline

MAE total goals1.3565

Exact score log-loss3.0747

Total goals Brier0.8318

Total goals log-loss1.9142

1X2 Brier0.6515

1X2 log-loss1.0761

BTTS Brier0.2505

Over 1.5 Brier0.1778

Over 2.5 Brier0.2504

Over 3.5 Brier0.2168

Calibration diagnostics

Home win · ECE 9.51%

 0- 10%  n=3    avg=  6.2% actual=  0.0%
10- 20%  n=15   avg= 15.9% actual= 13.3%
20- 30%  n=52   avg= 25.6% actual= 21.2%
30- 40%  n=313  avg= 37.6% actual= 26.2%
40- 50%  n=701  avg= 42.5% actual= 51.2%
50- 60%  n=49   avg= 55.1% actual= 69.4%
60- 70%  n=21   avg= 65.4% actual= 76.2%
70- 80%  n=5    avg= 72.8% actual=100.0%

Draw · ECE 4.05%

10- 20%  n=15   avg= 17.9% actual= 26.7%
20- 30%  n=1103 avg= 28.4% actual= 24.6%
30- 40%  n=41   avg= 31.0% actual= 39.0%

Away win · ECE 7.46%

 0- 10%  n=4    avg=  9.3% actual=  0.0%
10- 20%  n=49   avg= 16.1% actual= 10.2%
20- 30%  n=581  avg= 28.0% actual= 22.0%
30- 40%  n=446  avg= 32.2% actual= 41.7%
40- 50%  n=46   avg= 44.0% actual= 47.8%
50- 60%  n=23   avg= 54.1% actual= 60.9%
60- 70%  n=6    avg= 64.3% actual= 50.0%
70- 80%  n=4    avg= 74.4% actual= 25.0%

BTTS · ECE 2.29%

30- 40%  n=3    avg= 36.8% actual= 33.3%
40- 50%  n=37   avg= 47.3% actual= 40.5%
50- 60%  n=1025 avg= 55.2% actual= 54.0%
60- 70%  n=92   avg= 63.0% actual= 52.2%
70- 80%  n=2    avg= 70.8% actual=  0.0%

Over 2.5 · ECE 4.40%

30- 40%  n=11   avg= 37.9% actual= 36.4%
40- 50%  n=812  avg= 49.0% actual= 54.2%
50- 60%  n=269  avg= 53.3% actual= 53.2%
60- 70%  n=60   avg= 63.5% actual= 50.0%
70- 80%  n=7    avg= 75.0% actual= 71.4%

Walk-forward - latest periods

Period	N	Model 1X2 LL	Baseline 1X2 LL	Improvement
2025-08	37	1.0250	1.0758	+4.72%
2025-09	27	1.1079	1.1017	-0.56%
2025-10	25	1.0204	1.0813	+5.63%
2025-11	31	1.0767	1.0870	+0.95%
2025-12	32	1.0577	1.1081	+4.55%
2026-01	20	1.0965	1.0998	+0.30%
2026-02	32	1.0101	1.0524	+4.02%
2026-03	28	1.0072	1.0901	+7.60%
2026-04	15	0.7823	1.0786	+27.48%
2026-05	15	0.9888	1.0436	+5.25%
2026-08	33	0.9379	1.0598	+11.50%
2026-09	30	0.8722	1.0279	+15.14%

Football is data.

NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.

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Genk vsKortrijk

Match probabilities.

Most likely scorelines.

Strength and recent form.

Genk

Kortrijk

Historical matchup context.

Total goals profile.

How the model reached the estimate.

Genk

Kortrijk

Genk

Kortrijk

Historical model performance.

Home win · ECE 9.51%

Draw · ECE 4.05%

Away win · ECE 7.46%

BTTS · ECE 2.29%

Over 2.5 · ECE 4.40%

Football is data.

Genk vs
Kortrijk