Home win
54.43%
Beveren
BEL1 · Belgian Pro League · Match Analysis
Beveren vs
Lommel
Model-based match probabilities derived from multi-season xG data, team strength, venue performance, recent form, Elo ratings and league context.
Model output
Match probabilities.
Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting guarantees.
Draw
24.89%
X
Away win
20.67%
Lommel
Score model
Most likely scorelines.
Exact-score probabilities from the Poisson + Dixon-Coles goal model.
Additional scorelines
0:06.18%
1:25.79%
3:05.61%
2:25.53%
0:14.07%
Team context
Strength and recent form.
Venue-adjusted team strength, Elo rating and recent xG performance.
Home
Beveren
Elo1493.2
Overall attack1.08
Overall defense2.00
Home attack1.60
Home defense1.06
Form signal-0.814
Last 5 xGF / xGA1.15 / 1.96
Last 10 xGF / xGA1.10 / 1.92
Last 10 xGD-0.82
League statusNEW
Away
Lommel
Elo1497.9
Overall attack0.95
Overall defense1.80
Away attack1.29
Away defense2.86
Form signal-1.095
Last 5 xGF / xGA0.83 / 1.95
Last 10 xGF / xGA0.86 / 1.91
Last 10 xGD-1.05
League statusNEW
Elo difference
-4.7
Elo is one input among several and does not determine the final 1X2 probability on its own.
Head-to-head
Historical matchup context.
H2H values provide context and are not used as a standalone prediction.
Goal distribution
Total goals profile.
The model's probability distribution for the total number of goals.
06.18%
111.96%
223.53%
322.40%
416.96%
510.28%
65.19%
7+3.50%
Technical detail
How the model reached the estimate.
Detailed diagnostics are kept below the headline probabilities so the public report remains readable.
League baseline and model setup
LeagueBEL1
Loaded teams24
Loaded historical matches1179
Target season2026/27
Previous seasons in history4
Season window2022/23 → 2023/24 → 2024/25 → 2025/26 → 2026/27
League tierTier 1
Historical league matches1179
xG matches333 / 1179
Effective xG matches263.27
Observed home xG1.61
Observed away xG1.32
Model home xG baseline1.61
Model away xG baseline1.32
Total league xG baseline2.93
Home-advantage weight1.000
Model configdata/models/BEL1.json
Team attack half-life240.0 days
Team defense half-life240.0 days
Attack strength weight1.000
Defense strength weight1.000
Venue prior matches0.00
DistributionPoisson + Dixon-Coles
Dixon-Coles rho-0.130 (effective -0.130)
Dixon-Coles decay0.000
Goal overdispersion0.000
Implied goal variance H / A1.91 / 1.12
Relative strengths and form diagnostics
Beveren
Home attack strength0.997
Home defense weakness0.931
Base lambda home2.04
Attack form xGF level1.132
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.946
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.319
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.464
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal-0.336
Model defense signal-0.479
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 7
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD1.15 / 1.96 / -0.81
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD1.10 / 1.92 / -0.82
Lommel
Away attack strength0.993
Away defense weakness1.268
Base lambda away1.22
Attack form xGF level0.842
Defense form xGA level (lower is better)1.937
Opponent-adjusted attack residual-0.628
Opponent-adjusted defense residual (higher is better)-0.469
Opponent-adjustment weight0.000
Model attack signal-0.625
Model defense signal-0.470
Opponent blend0.000
Form matches 5 / 105 / 7
Last 5 xGF / xGA / xGD0.83 / 1.95 / -1.12
Last 10 xGF / xGA / xGD0.86 / 1.91 / -1.05
Historical data coverage
Beveren
Total matches7
Home / away matches3 / 4
xG matches7 / 7
xG home / away coverage3 / 3 · 4 / 4
Effective total6.23
Effective attack / defense6.23 / 6.23
Effective home matches2.69
Effective home attack / defense2.69 / 2.69
Lommel
Total matches7
Home / away matches4 / 3
xG matches7 / 7
xG home / away coverage4 / 4 · 3 / 3
Effective total6.23
Effective attack / defense6.23 / 6.23
Effective away matches2.65
Effective away attack / defense2.65 / 2.65
Historical data coverage
27.66%
This measures usable historical evidence. It is not the probability that the prediction is correct.
Validation
Historical model performance.
Leakage-safe backtesting compares the fitted model with a league baseline over 1159 historical matches.
Positive improvement means the model performed better than the league baseline.
Total goals log-loss vs baseline-0.05%
1X2 log-loss vs baseline+2.96%
BTTS Brier vs baseline+0.23%
Over 2.5 Brier vs baseline-0.52%
Full backtest metrics
Model
MAE total goals1.3639
Exact score log-loss3.0338
Total goals Brier0.8324
Total goals log-loss1.9152
1X2 Brier0.6289
1X2 log-loss1.0443
BTTS Brier0.2499
Over 1.5 Brier0.1776
Over 2.5 Brier0.2517
Over 3.5 Brier0.2178
League baseline
MAE total goals1.3565
Exact score log-loss3.0747
Total goals Brier0.8318
Total goals log-loss1.9142
1X2 Brier0.6515
1X2 log-loss1.0761
BTTS Brier0.2505
Over 1.5 Brier0.1778
Over 2.5 Brier0.2504
Over 3.5 Brier0.2168
Calibration diagnostics
Home win · ECE 9.51%
0- 10% n=3 avg= 6.2% actual= 0.0% 10- 20% n=15 avg= 15.9% actual= 13.3% 20- 30% n=52 avg= 25.6% actual= 21.2% 30- 40% n=313 avg= 37.6% actual= 26.2% 40- 50% n=701 avg= 42.5% actual= 51.2% 50- 60% n=49 avg= 55.1% actual= 69.4% 60- 70% n=21 avg= 65.4% actual= 76.2% 70- 80% n=5 avg= 72.8% actual=100.0%
Draw · ECE 4.05%
10- 20% n=15 avg= 17.9% actual= 26.7% 20- 30% n=1103 avg= 28.4% actual= 24.6% 30- 40% n=41 avg= 31.0% actual= 39.0%
Away win · ECE 7.46%
0- 10% n=4 avg= 9.3% actual= 0.0% 10- 20% n=49 avg= 16.1% actual= 10.2% 20- 30% n=581 avg= 28.0% actual= 22.0% 30- 40% n=446 avg= 32.2% actual= 41.7% 40- 50% n=46 avg= 44.0% actual= 47.8% 50- 60% n=23 avg= 54.1% actual= 60.9% 60- 70% n=6 avg= 64.3% actual= 50.0% 70- 80% n=4 avg= 74.4% actual= 25.0%
BTTS · ECE 2.29%
30- 40% n=3 avg= 36.8% actual= 33.3% 40- 50% n=37 avg= 47.3% actual= 40.5% 50- 60% n=1025 avg= 55.2% actual= 54.0% 60- 70% n=92 avg= 63.0% actual= 52.2% 70- 80% n=2 avg= 70.8% actual= 0.0%
Over 2.5 · ECE 4.40%
30- 40% n=11 avg= 37.9% actual= 36.4% 40- 50% n=812 avg= 49.0% actual= 54.2% 50- 60% n=269 avg= 53.3% actual= 53.2% 60- 70% n=60 avg= 63.5% actual= 50.0% 70- 80% n=7 avg= 75.0% actual= 71.4%
Walk-forward - latest periods
| Period | N | Model 1X2 LL | Baseline 1X2 LL | Improvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08 | 37 | 1.0250 | 1.0758 | +4.72% |
| 2025-09 | 27 | 1.1079 | 1.1017 | -0.56% |
| 2025-10 | 25 | 1.0204 | 1.0813 | +5.63% |
| 2025-11 | 31 | 1.0767 | 1.0870 | +0.95% |
| 2025-12 | 32 | 1.0577 | 1.1081 | +4.55% |
| 2026-01 | 20 | 1.0965 | 1.0998 | +0.30% |
| 2026-02 | 32 | 1.0101 | 1.0524 | +4.02% |
| 2026-03 | 28 | 1.0072 | 1.0901 | +7.60% |
| 2026-04 | 15 | 0.7823 | 1.0786 | +27.48% |
| 2026-05 | 15 | 0.9888 | 1.0436 | +5.25% |
| 2026-08 | 33 | 0.9379 | 1.0598 | +11.50% |
| 2026-09 | 30 | 0.8722 | 1.0279 | +15.14% |
Football is data.
NILYTIX turns match data into transparent model probabilities and measurable analytical signals.